Bundesliga 2025-2026: St Pauli vs Ein Frankfurt Prediction - 8 Mar 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots
St Pauli
Home Team
34%
VS
Ein Frankfurt
Away Team
42%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5:
53%
Under 2.5:
47%
Goal:
56%
No Goal:
44%
Expected Corners:
9.5
Expected Shots:
22.9
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 24 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 88 | 23 | 65 | 63 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 24 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 51 | 25 | 26 | 52 |
| 3 | Hoffenheim | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 31 | 18 | 46 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 32 | 16 | 46 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 33 | 13 | 44 |
| 6 | Leverkusen | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 29 | 16 | 43 |
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 34 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 33 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 31 |
| 10 | Union Berlin | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 28 |
| 11 | Hamburg | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 26 |
| 12 | M'gladbach | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 25 |
| 13 | FC Koln | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 24 |
| 14 | Mainz | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 23 |
| 15 | St Pauli | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 40 | -17 | 23 |
| 16 | Werder Bremen | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 22 |
| 17 | Wolfsburg | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 22 | 53 | -31 | 14 |
Recent Trends
St Pauli
- Last Match: vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 4)
- 4th Last Match: vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
Ein Frankfurt
- Last Match: vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 3)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
St Pauli
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.91
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.36
# Clean Sheets:
1
Ein Frankfurt
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.16
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.17
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
Eintracht Frankfurt are slight favourites here, with a 42.0% chance of taking all three points away at Millerntor, compared to a 34.0% probability for St Pauli and a 24.0% chance of a draw. Frankfurt arrive as the higher‑placed side in the Bundesliga table, sitting 7th on 34 points, while St Pauli are 15th on 23 points and still uncomfortably close to the relegation battle. The model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 53.0% and both teams expected to score (56.0% probability of a goal for each side).
Match Analysis
St Pauli come into this on a mini‑revival: back‑to‑back wins over Werder Bremen (2-1) and a statement 1-0 away victory at top‑four chasing Hoffenheim have pulled them away from immediate danger after the 0-4 humbling at Leverkusen. Interestingly, those three matches show very different patterns: they were clinical but second best in shots and corners against both Hoffenheim (11-20 shots, 3-10 corners) and Bremen (5-13 shots, 1-5 corners), yet still found a way to take six points. Their recent averages tell a similar story: 1.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded in the last five, but with just 0.912 xG for and 1.36 xG against. In other words, St Pauli have been punching slightly above their underlying numbers and living on defensive resilience rather than dominance.
Frankfurt’s recent form is that of a dangerous, if inconsistent, top‑half side. They’ve beaten Freiburg 2-0 and M’gladbach 3-0 at home, either side of a brave 2-3 defeat away to runaway leaders Bayern Munich. Across those three games they’ve scored seven and conceded three, with a notable improvement defensively in the two clean sheets. Over the last five matches, they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored but 2.2 conceded, underpinned by 1.158 xG for and a worrying 2.17 xG against – a sign that while Frankfurt carry real threat, they do allow opponents plenty of chances. That volatility, combined with their league position (7th, chasing European places) makes them a logical favourite, but far from a lock.
Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction
Recent Goals Trends
Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5
St Pauli
Ein Frankfurt
The model sides narrowly with an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%, and the recent scorelines for both teams back up the idea of goals. Two of St Pauli’s last three games went over 2.5 (2-1 vs Werder Bremen, 0-4 vs Leverkusen), with only the 1-0 win at Hoffenheim landing under. Frankfurt mirror that: two of their last three also finished over 2.5 (3-0 vs M’gladbach, 2-3 at Bayern), with the 2-0 against Freiburg the lone under. With St Pauli averaging 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Frankfurt at 1.8 for and 2.2 against across their last five, plus both sides’ xG suggesting chances at both ends, backing goals over 2.5 rather than under 2.5 looks justified.
Corners Prediction
Recent Corners Trends
Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.
St Pauli
Ein Frankfurt
Corners Probability Distribution
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
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Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners in this match is 9.5, pointing to a moderate but not frantic game in wide areas. St Pauli’s last three outings brought 3-10, 1-5 and 3-8 corner counts, which shows they’ve generally been out‑cornered, reflecting a more cautious, reactive approach even when they win. Frankfurt’s recent numbers – 5-6 vs Freiburg, 2-8 at Bayern, 2-8 vs M’gladbach – show they can soak up pressure and break rather than pile up corners themselves. That balance of one side often sitting in (St Pauli) and the other happy to counter (Frankfurt) fits a corners prediction just around the 9–10 mark rather than a very high tally.
Shots Prediction
Recent Shots Trends
Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.
St Pauli
Ein Frankfurt
Shots Probability Distribution
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
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Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this clash stands at 22.86 in total, suggesting a lively contest without descending into a shot‑fest. St Pauli’s last three matches featured 11-20, 5-13 and 11-12 shot counts; they’ve frequently allowed opponents to fire away, but still created enough to be dangerous. Frankfurt, meanwhile, posted 15-4 vs Freiburg, 9-24 at Bayern and 12-20 vs M’gladbach, again underlining their end‑to‑end nature and defensive openness. Given Frankfurt’s 1.158 xG and 2.17 xG against in their last five, a shots prediction just under 23 attempts aligns neatly with the idea of a match with plenty of goalmouth action but not constant bombardment.
Final Prediction
Frankfurt’s edge comes from their superior league position, stronger recent attacking output and slightly higher win probability, even if their defensive numbers leave the door open for St Pauli. The hosts’ recent results hint at a side capable of grinding out big performances, but their xG profile suggests they may struggle to keep that up against better‑armed opponents. The key factor to watch will be how St Pauli’s back line copes with Frankfurt’s varied attack; if the visitors start carving out chances early, their quality in the final third should tilt the game in their favour.
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