Bundesliga 2025-2026: St Pauli vs Freiburg Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

St Pauli

Home Team
28%
VS

Freiburg

Away Team
48%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 26 21 4 1 93 25 68 67
2 Dortmund 26 17 7 2 55 26 29 58
3 Hoffenheim 26 15 5 6 54 34 20 50
4 Stuttgart 26 15 5 6 51 34 17 50
5 RB Leipzig 26 14 5 7 48 35 13 47
6 Leverkusen 26 13 6 7 49 33 16 45
7 Ein Frankfurt 26 10 8 8 49 49 0 38
8 Freiburg 26 9 7 10 37 43 -6 34
9 Union Berlin 26 8 7 11 31 42 -11 31
10 Augsburg 26 9 4 13 31 45 -14 31
11 Hamburg 26 7 9 10 29 37 -8 30
12 M'gladbach 26 7 7 12 30 43 -13 28
13 Mainz 26 6 9 11 31 41 -10 27
14 FC Koln 26 6 7 13 35 44 -9 25
15 Werder Bremen 26 6 7 13 29 47 -18 25
16 St Pauli 26 6 6 14 23 42 -19 24
17 Wolfsburg 26 5 6 15 35 56 -21 21
18 Heidenheim 26 3 5 18 24 58 -34 14

Recent Trends

St Pauli L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 4)

Freiburg L D L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

St Pauli

xG (avg) 0.81
xGA (avg) 1.07
Clean Sheets 2

Freiburg

xG (avg) 0.81
xGA (avg) 2.06
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Freiburg are slight but clear favourites here, with a 48.0% chance of taking all three points away at Millerntor compared to St Pauli’s 28.0%, and a 24.0% chance of a draw. The model points to an away win and leans towards under 2.5 goals, despite a 50.0% probability line on the goal total. Freiburg come into this one from 8th in the Bundesliga on 34 points, while St Pauli are 16th on 24 points and still heavily involved in the relegation scrap.

Match Analysis

St Pauli’s last three games tell the story of a team grinding rather than flowing: a 1-0 smash-and-grab at Hoffenheim, a goalless home draw with Eintracht Frankfurt, and a 2-0 defeat away to Mönchengladbach. They have only scored once across those fixtures but have kept two clean sheets, reflecting their recent five-game averages of just 1.0 goal scored and 0.6 conceded. Interestingly, their expected goals numbers (0.806 xG for, 1.072 xG against per game) suggest they are slightly overperforming defensively and not creating a great deal going forward. Freiburg arrive on a poor run, with one point from their last three: a chaotic 3-3 home draw with Leverkusen bookended by a 0-2 loss at Eintracht Frankfurt and a 0-1 home defeat to Union Berlin. They’ve conceded seven in those matches and failed to score in two of them, in line with their five-game averages of just 0.4 goals scored and a worrying 2.0 conceded per match. Their xG profile (0.812 for, 2.062 against) underlines the defensive vulnerability that has them stuck in mid-table rather than pushing the European spots.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an under 2.5 outcome, even though the raw probability for over 2.5 goals sits right on 50.0%. Two of St Pauli’s last three league games have finished under 2.5 goals (0-2, 0-0, 1-0), while Freiburg have seen two of their last three also land under (0-2, 3-3, 0-1). With both sides averaging around 0.8 xG for per game and St Pauli conceding just 0.6 goals on average over their last five, the under 2.5 prediction is backed by both form and underlying numbers.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners in this match is 9.15, pointing towards a fairly typical Bundesliga contest rather than a barrage of set pieces. St Pauli’s last three have produced corner totals of 4, 11 and 13, often with the opposition racking up more, suggesting they can be pushed deep and forced to defend wide. Freiburg, meanwhile, have been consistent in this area, with corner counts of 8, 7 and 11, reflecting an approach that still looks to attack even when results are poor. That balance supports a corners prediction close to the 9–10 mark, with both sides likely to create from the flanks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With an expected total of 23.72, the shots prediction points to a game of moderate activity in and around both boxes. St Pauli’s last three have seen them register 8, 11 and 11 shots while facing 10, 8 and 20, which fits a pattern of being slightly outshot but staying compact. Freiburg have been more volatile, firing 19 and 21 attempts in their two recent home games but only 4 away at Frankfurt, while conceding 9, 17 and 15. Those numbers, together with both sides’ xG around 0.8 per game, suggest a match where Freiburg edge the expected shots but without turning it into a shooting gallery.

Final Prediction

Freiburg’s higher league position, greater individual quality and the 48.0% win probability give them a narrow edge, even if their recent defensive numbers are poor. St Pauli’s improved defensive solidity and home advantage keep them in the contest, but their limited attacking output is a concern. The key factor to watch will be whether Freiburg can convert their likely shot and territory advantage into clear chances against a St Pauli side that has recently specialised in low-scoring, attritional football.

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