Bundesliga 2025-2026: St Pauli vs Mainz Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

St Pauli

Home Team
31%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
44%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: -0.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 31 26 4 1 113 32 81 82
2 Dortmund 31 20 7 4 65 31 34 67
3 RB Leipzig 31 19 5 7 62 38 24 62
4 Stuttgart 31 17 6 8 63 43 20 57
5 Hoffenheim 31 17 6 8 61 45 16 57
6 Leverkusen 31 16 7 8 62 42 20 55
7 Ein Frankfurt 31 11 10 10 56 58 -2 43
8 Freiburg 31 12 7 12 44 52 -8 43
9 Augsburg 31 10 7 14 39 55 -16 37
10 Mainz 31 8 10 13 39 49 -10 34
11 M'gladbach 31 7 11 13 36 50 -14 32
12 Werder Bremen 31 8 8 15 36 54 -18 32
13 Union Berlin 31 8 8 15 35 55 -20 32
14 FC Koln 31 7 10 14 45 53 -8 31
15 Hamburg 31 7 10 14 34 50 -16 31
16 St Pauli 31 6 8 17 26 53 -27 26
17 Wolfsburg 31 6 7 18 41 66 -25 25
18 Heidenheim 31 5 7 19 35 66 -31 22

Recent Trends

St Pauli L D L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Heidenheim (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)

Mainz L D L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

St Pauli

xG (avg) 0.95
xGA (avg) 2.04
Clean Sheets 0

Mainz

xG (avg) 1.88
xGA (avg) 1.46
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mainz are slight favourites on the road, with a 44.0% chance of taking all three points against a St Pauli side given a 31.0% chance of victory and a 25.0% probability of a draw. The model points towards the away win in a low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 52.0% implied by the 48.0% probability of over 2.5. In the table, Mainz sit 10th on 34 points, while St Pauli are 16th on 26 points and fighting to avoid dropping into the bottom two.

Match Analysis

St Pauli come into this under pressure and out of form: a 0-2 defeat at Heidenheim, a 1-1 draw at home to FC Köln and a heavy 0-5 home loss to Bayern Munich underline both their blunt attack and fragile defence. Across those games they’ve scored just once and conceded eight, and even when they edged territory – as against Köln, with 14-10 shots and 8-5 corners – they lacked cutting edge. The recent numbers back that up: only 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average in their last five, with under 1.0 expected goals (0.954) for and over 2.0 xG against (2.044), plus no clean sheets in that run. Mainz arrive with more balance, even if results haven’t fully rewarded their play. A 3-4 home loss to Bayern showed their ability to trade punches with a top side, followed by a solid 1-1 draw away at M’gladbach and a narrow 0-1 home defeat to Freiburg. They’ve averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over their last five, but the underlying numbers are stronger: 1.878 xG for and 1.456 xG against, again without a clean sheet but generally keeping games tighter than Pauli. That mix of slightly sharper attack and marginally better defensive profile explains why Mainz shade the probabilities despite being away.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 52.0% edge over the 48.0% over 2.5 prediction, and the recent scorelines largely support a cagey outlook. Two of St Pauli’s last three matches stayed under 2.5 goals (0-2 at Heidenheim, 1-1 vs Köln), with only the 0-5 against Bayern going over. For Mainz, two of their last three were under (1-1 at M’gladbach, 0-1 vs Freiburg), with the 3-4 against Bayern as the lone high‑scorer. With Pauli averaging 0.8 for and 1.8 against, and Mainz at 1.2 for and 1.4 against, plus xG figures that suggest modest rather than explosive attacks, under 2.5 looks the likelier outcome despite the occasional wild game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches
Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match sits at 9.58, pointing towards a fairly typical Bundesliga tally. St Pauli’s last three produced 12, 13 and 7 corners respectively, while Mainz’s games delivered 8, 6 and 10; both sides are regularly around that 8–12 band, which backs this corners prediction. With Mainz generally on the front foot in recent outings (17 and 21 shots in two of the last three) and Pauli chasing safety at home, we can expect enough attacking phases from both to justify the predicted corners total close to double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches
Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.11, hinting at an open but not frantic game in terms of attempts. St Pauli’s last three saw them take 11, 14 and 6 shots while facing 12, 10 and 20; Mainz attempted 21, 17 and 10 and conceded 11, 9 and 8. That balance – Mainz more assertive, Pauli often reacting – aligns with a shots prediction in the mid‑20s, with Mainz’s higher xG (1.878) and Pauli’s defensive xG against (2.044) suggesting the visitors will supply a good share of those expected shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = St Pauli wins by X goals. Negative = Mainz wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for St Pauli vs Mainz with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for St Pauli vs Mainz
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.41 (home minus away), meaning the expected spread slightly favours Mainz by just under half a goal. Recent form backs that: St Pauli are -6 on goal difference over their last three (1 scored, 7 conceded), while Mainz are only -1 over the same span (4 scored, 5 conceded) despite facing Bayern. Tied to a 44.0% away win probability versus 31.0% for the hosts, and Mainz’s stronger attacking and defensive metrics, the narrow expected spread looks consistent with a marginal away edge rather than a rout.

Final Prediction

Mainz’s superior xG profile, tighter recent goal differences and mid‑table position give them a slight but tangible advantage over a St Pauli side struggling to score and to keep clean sheets. If Mainz can translate their chance creation into goals and avoid the lapses that cost them against Bayern, they should have enough to edge a low‑scoring contest. The key factor to watch will be whether St Pauli can lift their attacking level at home; if they don’t, Mainz’s more efficient forward line is likely to decide it.

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