Bundesliga 2025-2026: St Pauli vs Stuttgart Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

St Pauli

Home Team
8%
VS

Stuttgart

Away Team
83%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 20 16 3 1 74 18 56 51
2 Dortmund 20 13 6 1 41 19 22 45
3 Hoffenheim 20 13 3 4 43 23 20 42
4 Stuttgart 20 12 3 5 37 26 11 39
5 RB Leipzig 20 11 3 6 38 27 11 36
6 Leverkusen 19 11 2 6 38 26 12 35
7 Freiburg 20 7 6 7 31 33 -2 27
8 Ein Frankfurt 20 7 6 7 40 45 -5 27
9 Union Berlin 20 6 6 8 25 33 -8 24
10 FC Koln 20 6 5 9 29 32 -3 23
11 Augsburg 20 6 4 10 24 37 -13 22
12 M'gladbach 20 5 6 9 24 33 -9 21
13 Hamburg 19 4 7 8 19 29 -10 19
14 Wolfsburg 20 5 4 11 28 42 -14 19
15 Werder Bremen 20 4 7 9 22 38 -16 19
16 Mainz 20 4 6 10 23 33 -10 18
17 St Pauli 20 3 5 12 18 34 -16 14
18 Heidenheim 20 3 4 13 19 45 -26 13

Recent Trends

St Pauli L D D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)

Stuttgart W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Leverkusen (Goals: 4 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

St Pauli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.80
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.66
# Clean Sheets: 1

Stuttgart

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.08
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.63
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart are clear favourites here, with an 83.0% probability of taking all three points away at St Pauli, who sit 17th and deep in relegation trouble, while Stuttgart chase the Champions League spots in 4th. The draw is given just 9.0% and a home win only 8.0%, underlining the expected gap. Goals are likely: there’s a 60.0% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60.0% chance both teams score.

Match Analysis

St Pauli’s recent form reflects their position: only 3 wins all season and just 14 points from 20 matches. In their last three, they have two home draws (1–1 vs RB Leipzig and 0–0 vs Hamburg) and an away defeat at Augsburg (2–1). The pattern is clear – they struggle to create and finish chances, averaging only 0.6 goals scored across the last five games, with expected goals at 0.802 and just one clean sheet in that period. They are conceding 1.4 goals per match recently, with an even worse xG conceded of 1.662, showing opponents are regularly carving them open. Stuttgart arrive in far better shape. They’ve taken seven points from their last three outings: a solid 1–0 home win over Freiburg, an impressive 3–0 victory away at M’gladbach, and a 1–1 draw with Union Berlin. Their attacking numbers are strong: 3.0 goals scored on average in the last five games, backed by 2.078 expected goals. Defensively, they’re not watertight (1.2 conceded on average, 1.634 xG against) but two clean sheets in five underline an ability to control matches.

Final Prediction

Stuttgart’s superior attacking threat, recent results, and top‑four push give them a clear edge over a St Pauli side battling to stay in the division. The key factor to watch will be whether St Pauli’s defence can withstand Stuttgart’s sustained pressure, especially in the opening stages, or whether the visitors’ firepower quickly decides the contest.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel