Bundesliga 2025-2026: St Pauli vs Union Berlin Prediction - 23 Nov 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

St Pauli

Home Team
47%
VS

Union Berlin

Away Team
28%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 10 9 1 0 35 6 29 28
2 RB Leipzig 10 7 1 2 20 13 7 22
3 Dortmund 10 6 3 1 16 7 9 21
4 Stuttgart 10 7 0 3 17 12 5 21
5 Leverkusen 10 6 2 2 24 14 10 20
6 Hoffenheim 10 6 1 3 21 16 5 19
7 Ein Frankfurt 10 5 2 3 23 19 4 17
8 Werder Bremen 10 4 3 3 15 18 -3 15
9 FC Koln 10 4 2 4 17 15 2 14
10 Freiburg 10 3 4 3 13 14 -1 13
11 Union Berlin 10 3 3 4 13 17 -4 12
12 M'gladbach 10 2 3 5 13 19 -6 9
13 Hamburg 10 2 3 5 9 16 -7 9
14 Wolfsburg 10 2 2 6 12 18 -6 8
15 Augsburg 10 2 1 7 14 24 -10 7
16 St Pauli 10 2 1 7 9 20 -11 7
17 Mainz 10 1 2 7 10 18 -8 5
18 Heidenheim 10 1 2 7 8 23 -15 5

Recent Trends

St Pauli L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 1)

Union Berlin D D L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

St Pauli

xG (avg) 1.18
xGA (avg) 1.95
Clean Sheets 0

Union Berlin

xG (avg) 1.22
xGA (avg) 2.02
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between St Pauli and Union Berlin sees St Pauli as the predicted winners with a 47.0% probability. This match is expected to feature fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 48.0% chance of this outcome. Both teams are currently positioned towards the lower end of the Bundesliga standings, with Union Berlin in 11th and St Pauli struggling in 16th place, perilously close to the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

St Pauli enters this match on a troubling run of form, having lost their last three games. They have faced defeats against Freiburg, M'gladbach, and Ein Frankfurt, conceding a total of 8 goals while scoring just one. Their defensive frailties are highlighted by an average of 2.6 goals conceded per game over the last five matches, with no clean sheets to their name. Despite this, their expected goals statistics suggest they create decent opportunities, with an average of 1.18 expected goals per game. Union Berlin, on the other hand, has managed to avoid defeat in two of their last three encounters, drawing against the formidable Bayern Munich and Freiburg. However, they suffered a narrow loss to Werder Bremen. Their recent performances show a slight improvement defensively, with one clean sheet in their last five games. Union Berlin averages 1.0 goals per game while conceding 2.25, indicating potential vulnerabilities at the back, but they are capable of scoring, as evidenced by their 2-goal haul against Bayern.

Final Prediction

St Pauli is favored to secure a much-needed victory, primarily due to their slightly better attacking metrics compared to Union Berlin's defensive record. The key factor to watch in this encounter is how effectively St Pauli can capitalize on their scoring opportunities and if Union Berlin can tighten their defense to avoid another setback. This match is crucial for both teams as they aim to climb the Bundesliga table and steer clear of the relegation zone.

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