Bundesliga 2025-2026: St Pauli vs Werder Bremen Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

St Pauli

Home Team
41%
VS

Werder Bremen

Away Team
32%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 23.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 22 18 3 1 82 19 63 57
2 Dortmund 22 15 6 1 47 20 27 51
3 Hoffenheim 22 14 3 5 47 28 19 45
4 Stuttgart 22 13 3 6 41 29 12 42
5 RB Leipzig 22 12 4 6 42 30 12 40
6 Leverkusen 21 12 3 6 43 27 16 39
7 Ein Frankfurt 22 8 7 7 44 46 -2 31
8 Freiburg 22 8 6 8 32 36 -4 30
9 Hamburg 21 6 7 8 24 31 -7 25
10 Union Berlin 22 6 7 9 28 37 -9 25
11 Augsburg 22 7 4 11 25 39 -14 25
12 FC Koln 22 6 5 11 31 37 -6 23
13 M'gladbach 22 5 7 10 25 37 -12 22
14 Mainz 22 5 6 11 25 37 -12 21
15 Wolfsburg 22 5 5 12 31 46 -15 20
16 Werder Bremen 22 4 7 11 22 42 -20 19
17 St Pauli 22 4 5 13 20 39 -19 17
18 Heidenheim 22 3 4 15 19 48 -29 13

Recent Trends

St Pauli L W L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 0)

Werder Bremen L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

St Pauli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.97
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.12
# Clean Sheets: 1

Werder Bremen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.85
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.65
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

St Pauli are narrowly favoured at home, with a 41.0% probability of victory compared to Werder Bremen’s 32.0%, making a home win the predicted result in this relegation six-pointer between 17th and 16th in the Bundesliga table. The model also points towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction backed by a 61.0% probability. A draw remains a live possibility at 26.0%, but the edge goes to St Pauli at the Millerntor.

Match Analysis

St Pauli’s last three matches have been a mixed bag: a statement 2-1 home win over Stuttgart sandwiched between a 1-2 defeat at Augsburg and a heavy 0-4 loss away to Leverkusen. Performances have actually been fairly positive in terms of initiative – they registered 15 and 17 shots against Stuttgart and Augsburg – but their defensive fragility is exposed against top attacks. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged 1.0 goal scored and 0.8 conceded, with expected goals (xG) at 0.974 for and 1.118 against, suggesting they tend to play tight matches where small margins decide the outcome. Werder Bremen arrive in worse form, winless in three and with back‑to‑back defeats to Bayern (0-3) and Freiburg (0-1) following a 1-1 draw at home to M’gladbach. They’ve struggled badly in front of goal, with just 0.4 goals scored per game over their last five and no clean sheets, while conceding 1.6 on average. Their xG figures – 0.854 for and 1.654 against – underline a side that is not creating as much quality as they allow, which is dangerous away from home in a pressure game. Against that backdrop, St Pauli’s slightly better balance between goals for and against gives them a slim but real edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards goals here, with an over 2.5 prediction at 61.0%. Two of St Pauli’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3 and 4 total goals), while Werder’s recent games have all been tight and under 2.5 (3, 1 and 2 total goals). Still, St Pauli’s average of 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, combined with Werder’s 0.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, plus xG numbers on both sides hovering around 1 goal for and above 1 against, support the idea that this could tip into a more open contest if either defence cracks early.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.83, pointing to a match with roughly 9–10 corners overall. St Pauli’s last three games produced corner counts of 3-8, 5-5 and 5-5, showing they regularly reach double figures combined. Werder’s recent matches ended 2-4, 8-4 and 7-3 in corners, again indicating active wing play and frequent final‑third entries. This corners prediction fits two teams who, despite their league position, still try to push forward and attack from wide areas, which naturally generates more predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 23.4, suggesting a reasonably busy night for both goalkeepers. St Pauli have posted 11, 15 and 17 shots in their last three, while allowing 12, 7 and 12, and Werder have recorded 14, 17 and 18 attempts, conceding 11, 7 and 7. Those numbers match well with this shots prediction, as both sides are not shy about pulling the trigger. Their xG profiles, with each hovering close to 1 expected goal for per game, indicate that these expected shots should translate into several clear opportunities rather than speculative efforts only.

Final Prediction

St Pauli’s slight superiority in recent results, combined with home advantage and a more balanced goals-for/goals-against profile, explains why they are marginally preferred to edge Werder Bremen. Werder’s blunt attack and higher xG conceded tilt the probabilities against them in a match where both need points to escape the drop zone. A key factor to watch will be which side handles the pressure better in both boxes, as a single goal could quickly open up the game and drive it towards the predicted high‑event contest.

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