Bundesliga 2025-2026: St Pauli vs Wolfsburg Prediction - 16 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

St Pauli

Home Team
33%
VS

Wolfsburg

Away Team
41%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.9
Expected Spread: -0.0

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 33 27 5 1 117 35 82 86
2 Dortmund 33 21 7 5 68 34 34 70
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 65 43 22 65
4 Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 69 47 22 61
5 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 65 48 17 61
6 Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 67 46 21 58
7 Freiburg 33 12 8 13 47 56 -9 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 59 63 -4 43
9 Augsburg 33 12 7 14 45 57 -12 43
10 Mainz 33 9 10 14 42 53 -11 37
11 Hamburg 33 9 10 14 39 53 -14 37
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 40 58 -18 36
13 M'gladbach 33 8 11 14 38 53 -15 35
14 FC Koln 33 7 11 15 48 58 -10 32
15 Werder Bremen 33 8 8 17 37 58 -21 32
16 Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 42 68 -26 26
17 Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 41 70 -29 26
18 St Pauli 33 6 8 19 28 57 -29 26

Recent Trends

St Pauli L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Heidenheim (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 5)

Wolfsburg L D D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

St Pauli

xG (avg) 1.12
xGA (avg) 2.28
Clean Sheets 0

Wolfsburg

xG (avg) 1.00
xGA (avg) 2.63
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Wolfsburg are slight favourites here, with a 41.0% chance of taking all three points away at St Pauli, who have a 33.0% win probability, while the draw sits at 26.0%. The model leans towards an away win and also points to an open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 58.0%. In the table, Wolfsburg are 16th, level on 26 points with 18th-placed St Pauli, making this a straight relegation shoot-out at the bottom of the Bundesliga.

Match Analysis

St Pauli come into this under heavy pressure after three straight defeats: 1-2 at RB Leipzig, 1-2 at home to Mainz and 0-2 away at Heidenheim. The pattern is clear: they’ve been competitive in spells but keep coming up short in both boxes, scoring just twice across those games and conceding six. Their last five matches underline this fragility, averaging only 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with no clean sheets in that spell. The underlying numbers aren’t kind either: 1.12 expected goals (xG) for and 2.284 xG against on average, suggesting their defensive issues are not down to bad luck. Wolfsburg’s form is hardly sparkling, but it’s steadier. They’ve drawn with Freiburg (1-1 away) and M’gladbach (0-0 at home), then narrowly lost 0-1 to Bayern Munich despite matching them 17-16 on shots. Across their last five they’re averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded, with one clean sheet, and their xG profile – 0.996 for, 2.626 against – mirrors St Pauli’s in showing a team that concedes too many chances. Still, their ability to keep games tight recently, plus slightly better scoring output, explains why they shade the win probabilities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 58.0%, and the numbers suggest a game that can open up given what’s at stake. Two out of St Pauli’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (1-2, 1-2, 0-2), while none of Wolfsburg’s last three cleared that line (0-1, 1-1, 0-0), pointing to mixed recent trends. But with St Pauli conceding 2.0 goals per game on average and Wolfsburg letting in 2.6, alongside both sides’ xG against being well above 2.0, the balance still leans towards over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.82 total corners, which fits with both teams’ recent numbers. St Pauli’s last three produced 8, 14 and 12 total corners, while Wolfsburg’s games generated 9, 8 and 13, underlining that both sides can rack up set-piece situations when chasing games. With relegation on the line, expect aggressive wing play and frequent crosses, which supports the predicted corners figure staying close to that 10-mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.85, and recent games back up that shots prediction. St Pauli’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 20, 27 and 23, while Wolfsburg’s produced 33, 24 and 22, showing a consistent willingness to pull the trigger from both sides. Given each team’s xG figures hovering around 1.0–2.6 for and against, a high-20s total for attempts on goal looks realistic.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = St Pauli wins by X goals. Negative = Wolfsburg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for St Pauli vs Wolfsburg with expected spread of -0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for St Pauli vs Wolfsburg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is almost dead level, at -0.01 in favour of Wolfsburg, indicating only the slightest away edge. St Pauli’s recent goal difference across three games is -4 (2 scored, 6 conceded), while Wolfsburg’s is -1 (1 scored, 2 conceded), reflecting a marginally more solid away side. That expected spread ties in neatly with the match winner probabilities: Wolfsburg are favoured, but only just, in a clash of two vulnerable defences.

Final Prediction

Wolfsburg’s slightly better recent resilience and marginally stronger attacking output give them the edge in this relegation battle, even if the expected spread is almost even. The key factor to watch will be how St Pauli’s leaky back line copes with the pressure; if they concede early, the game could quickly tilt towards the visitors and drive that over 2.5 goals prediction.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel