Bundesliga 2025-2026: Stuttgart vs Dortmund Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Stuttgart

Home Team
48%
VS

Dortmund

Away Team
29%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 65%
No Goal: 35%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 27 22 4 1 97 25 72 70
2 Dortmund 27 18 7 2 58 28 30 61
3 Stuttgart 27 16 5 6 56 36 20 53
4 RB Leipzig 27 15 5 7 53 35 18 50
5 Hoffenheim 27 15 5 7 54 39 15 50
6 Leverkusen 27 13 7 7 52 36 16 46
7 Ein Frankfurt 27 10 8 9 50 51 -1 38
8 Freiburg 27 10 7 10 39 44 -5 37
9 Union Berlin 27 8 7 12 31 46 -15 31
10 Augsburg 27 9 4 14 33 50 -17 31
11 Mainz 27 7 9 11 33 42 -9 30
12 Hamburg 27 7 9 11 31 40 -9 30
13 M'gladbach 27 7 8 12 33 46 -13 29
14 Werder Bremen 27 7 7 13 30 47 -17 28
15 FC Koln 27 6 8 13 38 47 -9 26
16 St Pauli 27 6 6 15 24 44 -20 24
17 Wolfsburg 27 5 6 16 35 57 -22 21
18 Heidenheim 27 3 6 18 27 61 -34 15

Recent Trends

Stuttgart W W D W D

  • Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 3)

Dortmund W W W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Stuttgart

xG (avg) 2.52
xGA (avg) 1.19
Clean Sheets 2

Dortmund

xG (avg) 1.92
xGA (avg) 1.83
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart are narrowly favoured to take this one at home, with a 48.0% probability of victory against Dortmund’s 29.0%, despite Dortmund sitting 2nd on 61 points and Stuttgart chasing in 3rd on 53. The model leans towards a home win and a high-tempo contest, with an over 2.5 goals prediction rated at 60.0%. A draw remains a live possibility at 23.0%, underlining how finely balanced this top‑of‑the‑table clash is.

Match Analysis

Both sides come in on strong form. Stuttgart have taken seven points from their last three league outings, hammering Augsburg 5-2 away, edging RB Leipzig 1-0 at home and drawing 2-2 at Mainz. That mix of a five-goal attacking outburst and a tight clean-sheet win over a Champions League rival shows a side capable of adapting to different games. Their recent underlying numbers are impressive too: 2.0 goals scored on average in the last five, from 2.518 expected goals, while conceding just 0.4 from 1.19 expected – a sign of both sustained attacking threat and a defence that’s generally limiting chances. Dortmund arrive with real momentum of their own after three straight wins: 3-2 at home to Hamburg, 2-0 against Augsburg, and a hard-fought 2-1 away at Köln. They’ve been consistently dangerous, averaging 2.4 goals over their last five matches, supported by 1.918 xG, but they are more open at the back, conceding 1.4 per game from 1.83 expected. That gap hints at a defence that allows chances and can be punished by a clinical opponent, especially one with Stuttgart’s numbers in the final third.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction, at 60.0%, looks well founded given the recent scorelines. Two of Stuttgart’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (5-2 vs Augsburg, 2-2 vs Mainz), with only the 1-0 win over Leipzig staying under 2.5. Dortmund also saw two of their last three go over – 3-2 vs Hamburg and 2-1 at Köln – with just the 2-0 victory over Augsburg falling short. With Stuttgart averaging 2.0 scored and 0.4 conceded, and Dortmund at 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded in their last five, supported by strong xG on both sides, this has all the ingredients for another high‑scoring game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 9.44, suggesting a match hovering around the 9–10 corner mark. Stuttgart’s last three have produced 7, 11 and 11 total corners respectively, while Dortmund games have seen 14, 14 and 13 – a strong indicator of attacking play down the flanks and sustained pressure. That recent pattern backs a corners prediction close to double figures, with both teams’ proactive styles and willingness to shoot likely to keep the corner count healthy, even if not as extreme as Dortmund’s last two home outings.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With expected shots at 25.29 for the match, fans should anticipate frequent goalmouth action. Stuttgart’s last three games combined for 26, 22 and 29 total shots, while Dortmund’s produced 28, 23 and 27 – all comfortably in the mid‑20s or higher. Those volumes align neatly with both sides’ xG profiles: Stuttgart generating 2.518 xG and Dortmund 1.918 xG on average in their last five suggests enough attempts to justify a shots prediction around the mid‑20s once again.

Final Prediction

Stuttgart’s edge comes from their balance: a strong, consistent attack backed by a defence that has recently been far more economical than Dortmund’s. The key factor to watch will be how Dortmund’s more porous back line copes with Stuttgart’s chance creation; if the hosts impose their attacking rhythm early, the probabilities point towards the home side turning this into a statement win in the race for the Champions League spots.

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