Bundesliga 2025-2026: Stuttgart vs Hamburg Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Stuttgart

Home Team
73%
VS

Hamburg

Away Team
13%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 27.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 28 23 4 1 100 27 73 73
2 Dortmund 28 19 7 2 60 28 32 64
3 RB Leipzig 28 16 5 7 55 36 19 53
4 Stuttgart 28 16 5 7 56 38 18 53
5 Hoffenheim 28 15 5 8 55 41 14 50
6 Leverkusen 28 14 7 7 58 39 19 49
7 Ein Frankfurt 28 10 9 9 52 53 -1 39
8 Freiburg 28 10 7 11 41 47 -6 37
9 Mainz 28 8 9 11 35 43 -8 33
10 Union Berlin 28 8 8 12 32 47 -15 32
11 Augsburg 28 9 5 14 34 51 -17 32
12 Hamburg 28 7 10 11 32 41 -9 31
13 M'gladbach 28 7 9 12 35 48 -13 30
14 Werder Bremen 28 7 7 14 31 49 -18 28
15 FC Koln 28 6 9 13 40 49 -9 27
16 St Pauli 28 6 7 15 25 45 -20 25
17 Wolfsburg 28 5 6 17 38 63 -25 21
18 Heidenheim 28 3 7 18 29 63 -34 16

Recent Trends

Stuttgart L W W D W

  • Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 4 - 0)

Hamburg D L D W L

  • Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Stuttgart

xG (avg) 2.19
xGA (avg) 0.96
Clean Sheets 2

Hamburg

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 2.34
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart are strong favourites to take all three points at home, with a 73.0% probability of victory against a Hamburg side given just a 13.0% chance, and the draw at 14.0%. The model leans towards a high‑scoring contest, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 64.0% probability. In the table, Stuttgart sit 4th on 53 points and firmly in the Champions League race, while Hamburg are 12th on 31 points and looking over their shoulder at the relegation scrap.

Match Analysis

Stuttgart come into this one in solid form: two wins and one defeat in their last three. They brushed aside Augsburg 5-2 away and edged RB Leipzig 1-0 at home, showing they can both blow teams away and grind out tight wins. Even the 2-0 home loss to Dortmund came with territorial dominance (13 shots to 5, 5-2 corners), underlining a side that imposes itself regardless of the opponent. Over the last five games, Stuttgart are averaging 1.8 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, backed by very healthy underlying numbers: 2.188 xG created and only 0.964 xG allowed per match, plus two clean sheets. Hamburg, by contrast, have been awkward but unconvincing: three games without a win (two draws and one defeat). A 1-1 home draw with Augsburg and another 1-1 against FC Köln were followed by a narrow 3-2 loss away to Dortmund, where they were outshot 24-4 and out-cornered 11-3. Their last five games show 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average, but the xG trend is worrying: 1.146 for versus a hefty 2.336 against per match, with no clean sheets in that run. That gap suggests they’ve been living dangerously and allowing plenty of chances – not ideal when travelling to one of the league’s most efficient attacks.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 64.0% looks well supported by recent evidence. Two of Stuttgart’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (5-2 vs Augsburg, 2-0 and 1-0 the other two), while only one of Hamburg’s last three has cleared the line (the 3-2 defeat at Dortmund, with the other two finishing 1-1). Stuttgart’s mix of 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded per game, plus over 2.1 xG created, against a Hamburg defence allowing 2.336 xG, points toward a match where the home side can create enough to push this over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.94, which fits with recent patterns from both clubs. Stuttgart’s last three outings produced corner counts of 5-2 vs Dortmund, 5-2 at Augsburg and 5-6 vs Leipzig – a consistently solid output from a front‑foot side that attacks the flanks. Hamburg’s games have been corner-heavy too: 9-2 vs Augsburg, 3-11 at Dortmund and 1-8 vs Köln, regularly conceding a lot as they’re pushed back. That blend of Stuttgart pressure and Hamburg’s tendency to invite crosses and shots supports a corners prediction close to double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 27.06 also lines up neatly with recent shot volumes. Stuttgart have taken 13 attempts in each of their last three matches, while allowing 5, 13 and 9 – right in line with a match profile in the mid-20s to high-20s. Hamburg’s last three have seen them share 18-18 with Augsburg, be battered 24-4 at Dortmund, and trail 10-5 to Köln. With Stuttgart’s xG production and Hamburg’s high xG against, an aggressive home performance should ensure the shots prediction lands around that 27‑shot mark.

Final Prediction

Stuttgart’s superior league position, stronger recent form and clear advantage in both attacking and defensive metrics give them a marked edge over Hamburg. A potent attack generating over 2.1 xG per game against a defence allowing more than 2.3 xG should tilt the balance heavily in favour of the hosts. The key factor to watch will be how Hamburg cope with sustained pressure; if they can’t stem the flow of chances early, Stuttgart’s quality in the final third is likely to decide the contest.

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