Bundesliga 2025-2026: Stuttgart vs Leverkusen Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Stuttgart

Home Team
41%
VS

Leverkusen

Away Team
34%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 69%
No Goal: 31%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 28.6
Expected Spread: +0.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 32 26 5 1 116 35 81 83
2 Dortmund 32 20 7 5 65 32 33 67
3 RB Leipzig 32 19 5 8 63 42 21 62
4 Leverkusen 32 17 7 8 66 43 23 58
5 Stuttgart 32 17 7 8 66 46 20 58
6 Hoffenheim 32 17 7 8 64 48 16 58
7 Freiburg 32 12 8 12 45 53 -8 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 32 11 10 11 57 60 -3 43
9 Augsburg 32 11 7 14 42 56 -14 40
10 Mainz 32 9 10 13 41 50 -9 37
11 M'gladbach 32 8 11 13 37 50 -13 35
12 Hamburg 32 8 10 14 36 51 -15 34
13 Union Berlin 32 8 9 15 37 57 -20 33
14 FC Koln 32 7 11 14 47 55 -8 32
15 Werder Bremen 32 8 8 16 37 57 -20 32
16 Wolfsburg 32 6 8 18 42 67 -25 26
17 St Pauli 32 6 8 18 27 55 -28 26
18 Heidenheim 32 5 8 19 38 69 -31 23

Recent Trends

Stuttgart D D L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)

Leverkusen W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 6 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Stuttgart

xG (avg) 2.26
xGA (avg) 0.83
Clean Sheets 1

Leverkusen

xG (avg) 1.88
xGA (avg) 2.02
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart are very slight favourites at home with a 41.0% chance of winning, compared to Leverkusen’s 34.0%, with the draw at 24.0%. The model leans towards a home win and an over 2.5 prediction (64.0% probability) in what looks like a direct shoot-out between the sides currently sitting 5th (Stuttgart) and 4th (Leverkusen) on 58 points each. With Champions League places on the line, this is effectively a six-pointer.

Match Analysis

Stuttgart come in on a three-game winless run, but the performances have been anything but timid: a 3-3 thriller at Hoffenheim, a dominant-yet-frustrating 1-1 at home to Werder Bremen, and a 4-2 defeat at Bayern in a game where they still managed to score twice away to the champions. Across the last five matches they’ve averaged 2.0 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, backed by strong underlying numbers of 2.258 xG for and only 0.826 xG against – a profile of a side creating plenty and generally giving up little. Leverkusen’s recent form is similarly lively but more volatile. They beat high-flying RB Leipzig 4-1 and edged FC Köln 2-1 away, either side of a surprising 2-1 home defeat to Augsburg despite racking up 35 shots and 11 corners. Over their last five, they’ve also averaged 2.0 goals scored, but they’re conceding 1.4 per game and their xG conceded (2.024) is actually higher than the xG they create (1.884, still strong), suggesting an open, risk-taking approach that can leave gaps. Both teams have just one clean sheet in their last five, pointing to defensive vulnerability when pressed.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 64.0% looks well supported by recent scorelines. Two of Stuttgart’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Hoffenheim, 2-4 vs Bayern), with only the 1-1 vs Bremen falling under. For Leverkusen, two of their last three also finished under 2.5 (2-1 vs Köln, 2-1 vs Augsburg) but all three had at least three goals combined. With both sides averaging 2.0 goals scored recently and xG figures around or above two per game, anything other than an attacking contest would be a surprise, making over 2.5 far more plausible than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction is for 9.99 total corners, essentially around 10. Stuttgart’s last three saw corner totals of 9, 16 and 14, and they’ve consistently piled up corners at home (14-2 vs Bremen) through sustained pressure. Leverkusen’s recent games produced 10, 7 and 15 corners, with their high-volume attacking against Augsburg (11-4) a clear example. Both teams like to push full-backs high and shoot often, so predicted corners near double figures fit their front-foot playing styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 28.56, and recent data backs a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Stuttgart’s last three matches featured 14, 20 and 11 attempts for them, while they’ve faced 22, 9 and a hefty 28 shots – games that rarely drift. Leverkusen, meanwhile, have fired 23, 8 and 35 shots and conceded 14, 25 and 11. Those numbers, combined with both teams’ xG profiles, make a high total in any shots prediction logical, with the expected shots count again underlining the likelihood of a wide-open game.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Stuttgart wins by X goals. Negative = Leverkusen wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Stuttgart vs Leverkusen with expected spread of +0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Stuttgart vs Leverkusen
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is set at 0.0, reflecting an expected spread that sees the sides essentially dead even on underlying strength, with only the small home edge tilting things towards Stuttgart. Recently, Stuttgart’s last three have produced goal differences of 0, 0 and -2, while Leverkusen’s show +3, +1 and -1 – both fluctuating but generally competitive. With identical overall goal tallies this season (66 scored), similar recent attacking output and a narrow 41.0% vs 34.0% win probability split, a near-level spread feels appropriate.

Final Prediction

Stuttgart have the slight edge thanks to home advantage and more solid recent defensive metrics, even if results haven’t fully reflected their performances. Leverkusen’s firepower and high shot volume ensure this is anything but a comfortable call, but their looseness at the back gives Stuttgart a window. The key factor to watch will be which side controls transitions; in a game between two aggressive attacks, the team that manages the counter-press better is likely to decide the Champions League race in their favour.

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