Bundesliga 2025-2026: Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Stuttgart

Home Team
44%
VS

RB Leipzig

Away Team
31%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 65%
No Goal: 35%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 27.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 25 21 3 1 92 24 68 66
2 Dortmund 25 16 7 2 53 26 27 55
3 Hoffenheim 25 15 4 6 53 33 20 49
4 Stuttgart 25 14 5 6 50 34 16 47
5 RB Leipzig 25 14 5 6 48 34 14 47
6 Leverkusen 25 13 5 7 48 32 16 44
7 Ein Frankfurt 25 9 8 8 48 49 -1 35
8 Freiburg 25 9 7 9 37 42 -5 34
9 Augsburg 25 9 4 12 31 43 -12 31
10 Hamburg 25 7 8 10 28 36 -8 29
11 Union Berlin 25 7 7 11 30 42 -12 28
12 M'gladbach 25 6 7 12 28 43 -15 25
13 Werder Bremen 25 6 7 12 29 45 -16 25
14 FC Koln 25 6 6 13 34 43 -9 24
15 Mainz 25 5 9 11 29 41 -12 24
16 St Pauli 25 6 6 13 23 40 -17 24
17 Wolfsburg 25 5 5 15 34 55 -21 20
18 Heidenheim 25 3 5 17 24 57 -33 14

Recent Trends

Stuttgart D W D W L

  • Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 2)

RB Leipzig W W D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Stuttgart

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.84
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.15
# Clean Sheets: 1

RB Leipzig

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.00
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.15
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart are narrowly favoured at home, with a 44.0% chance of victory compared to RB Leipzig’s 31.0%, and the draw at 26.0%. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 prediction (63.0% for over), in what looks like a direct shoot-out between the sides currently neck and neck in the table – Stuttgart 4th and Leipzig 5th, both on 47 points.

Match Analysis

Both teams arrive in strong form and with attacking momentum. Stuttgart have drawn two wild away games – 2-2 at Mainz and 3-3 at Heidenheim – either side of a dominant 4-0 home win over Wolfsburg. Across those three matches they’ve hit 9 goals and shown they can overwhelm weaker sides at home, but the two high-scoring draws also underline that they can be opened up when games become stretched. Leipzig’s recent run is more controlled but equally effective: 2-1 wins over Augsburg (home) and Hamburg (away), followed by a 2-2 draw with Dortmund. They’ve taken 7 points from 9 against respectable opposition, scoring twice in each outing and generally edging the shot and corner counts, which speaks to a steady attacking platform rather than chaos. The advanced numbers back up the picture of two front-foot teams. Stuttgart have averaged 2.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded in their last five games, with an impressive 2.84 expected goals created and 1.146 expected goals against. Leipzig’s profile is slightly more restrained but still strong: 1.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded, with 1.998 xG for and 1.148 xG against. Neither side has been racking up clean sheets (Stuttgart 1, Leipzig 0 in their last five), which tilts this contest further towards an open, chance-filled encounter.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is clear, with a 63.0% probability of at least three goals. All three of Stuttgart’s recent matches went over 2.5 goals (4, 4 and 6 total goals), while all three of Leipzig’s also hit that mark (3, 3 and 4). Stuttgart’s mix of 2.4 scored and just 0.8 conceded on average, underpinned by 2.84 xG for, suggests they consistently create enough to turn chances into goals, and Leipzig’s 1.8 goals from 1.998 xG signals they will contribute plenty too.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a lively game, with 9.62 total corners expected. Stuttgart’s last three produced 11 (6-5 vs Mainz), 10 (7-3 vs Wolfsburg) and 7 (4-3 vs Heidenheim), while Leipzig’s delivered 14 (6-8 vs Augsburg), 13 (9-4 vs Hamburg) and 8 (6-2 vs Dortmund). Both teams push high and attack from wide areas, which naturally generates predicted corners around that 9–10 range.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 27.52 expected shots in total, matching what we’ve seen recently. Stuttgart’s last three games have featured 29 shots vs Mainz (11-18), 34 vs Wolfsburg (24-10) and 22 vs Heidenheim (12-10), while Leipzig’s have had 33 vs Augsburg (17-16), 20 vs Hamburg (13-7) and 24 vs Dortmund (13-11). With both sides’ xG numbers close to 2.0 per game, that volume of expected shots should again turn into good-quality chances at both ends.

Final Prediction

Stuttgart’s slight edge comes from their more explosive attacking numbers at home and marginally stronger attacking xG, coupled with a prediction leaning 44.0% in their favour. Leipzig’s consistency and threat mean this is anything but straightforward, but the key factor to watch will be which midfield can better control the tempo and limit transitions – whoever wins that battle should tilt a high-intensity, high-chance contest their way.

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