Bundesliga 2025-2026: Stuttgart vs Wolfsburg Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Stuttgart

Home Team
92%
VS

Wolfsburg

Away Team
3%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 66%
Under 2.5: 34%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 27.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 23 19 3 1 85 21 64 60
2 Dortmund 23 15 7 1 49 22 27 52
3 Hoffenheim 23 14 4 5 49 30 19 46
4 Stuttgart 23 13 4 6 44 32 12 43
5 RB Leipzig 23 12 5 6 44 32 12 41
6 Leverkusen 22 12 3 7 43 28 15 39
7 Freiburg 23 9 6 8 34 37 -3 33
8 Ein Frankfurt 23 8 7 8 46 49 -3 31
9 Union Berlin 23 7 7 9 29 37 -8 28
10 Augsburg 23 8 4 11 28 41 -13 28
11 Hamburg 22 6 8 8 25 32 -7 26
12 FC Koln 23 6 6 11 33 39 -6 24
13 Mainz 23 5 7 11 26 38 -12 22
14 M'gladbach 23 5 7 11 26 39 -13 22
15 Wolfsburg 23 5 5 13 33 49 -16 20
16 St Pauli 23 5 5 13 22 40 -18 20
17 Werder Bremen 23 4 7 12 23 44 -21 19
18 Heidenheim 23 3 5 15 22 51 -29 14

Recent Trends

Stuttgart D W L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 0)

Wolfsburg L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs FC Koln (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Stuttgart

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.00
# Clean Sheets: 2

Wolfsburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.39
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.49
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart are clear favourites at home, with a 92.0% probability of victory against 15th‑placed Wolfsburg, who have just a 3.0% chance, while the draw sits at 5.0%. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 66.0%. Sitting 4th in the Bundesliga and chasing Champions League football, Stuttgart look well placed to overpower a Wolfsburg side stuck in a relegation battle on 20 points.

Match Analysis

Stuttgart come into this fixture with mixed recent results but strong attacking signs: a 3-3 draw at Heidenheim, a 3-1 home win over FC Köln, and a 1-2 away defeat to St. Pauli. Across those games they’ve consistently found the net, and their last five matches show an average of 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed by an impressive 2.542 xG created per game and just 1.002 xG allowed. Two clean sheets in that span underline a generally solid defensive base, even if the Heidenheim draw showed some vulnerability. Wolfsburg, meanwhile, are struggling to keep opponents out: they lost 2-3 at home to Augsburg, drew 2-2 away at RB Leipzig, and fell 1-2 at home to Dortmund. Conceding at least two in each of those three games fits a wider pattern — over the last five, they’ve let in an average of 3.0 goals per match, with opponents generating 2.492 xG against them. Offensively, 1.4 goals and 1.388 xG per game show they can threaten, but their defensive frailty and lack of clean sheets (0 in the last five) weigh heavily against a confident Stuttgart side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 66.0% is strongly supported by recent scorelines. All 3 of Stuttgart’s last 3 matches went over 2.5 goals (3-3, 3-1, 1-2), and all 3 of Wolfsburg’s did as well (2-3, 2-2, 1-2). With Stuttgart averaging 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Wolfsburg at 1.4 scored and 3.0 conceded, plus both sides’ xG figures pointing to chances at both ends, an under 2.5 scenario looks less likely here.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.15, fitting a game where both sides attack but Stuttgart should have more sustained pressure. Stuttgart’s last three matches saw corner counts of 4-3, 2-5 and 5-5, while Wolfsburg’s produced 4-10, 2-6 and 4-8, suggesting their games often involve plenty of deliveries into the box. This corners prediction aligns with Stuttgart’s proactive style at home and Wolfsburg frequently defending deep and conceding predicted corners under pressure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match stands at 27.15 in total. Stuttgart’s last three outings produced 12, 13 and 7 attempts, while their opponents managed 10, 10 and 15, indicating open contests. Wolfsburg have faced heavy shot volumes recently (15, 20 and 21 against) while taking 10, 10 and 12 themselves, so the shots prediction and expected shots tally fit a game where Stuttgart’s superior attacking numbers and xG should translate into frequent efforts on goal.

Final Prediction

Stuttgart’s Champions League push, stronger underlying numbers, and Wolfsburg’s leaky defence all point to a dominant home performance and justify the heavy tilt towards a home win. The key factor to watch will be how often Stuttgart can turn their high xG into early goals; if they score first, Wolfsburg’s fragile back line could be exposed repeatedly.

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