Bundesliga 2025-2026: Union Berlin vs Augsburg Prediction - 16 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Union Berlin

Home Team
52%
VS

Augsburg

Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 27.1
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 33 27 5 1 117 35 82 86
2 Dortmund 33 21 7 5 68 34 34 70
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 65 43 22 65
4 Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 69 47 22 61
5 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 65 48 17 61
6 Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 67 46 21 58
7 Freiburg 33 12 8 13 47 56 -9 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 59 63 -4 43
9 Augsburg 33 12 7 14 45 57 -12 43
10 Mainz 33 9 10 14 42 53 -11 37
11 Hamburg 33 9 10 14 39 53 -14 37
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 40 58 -18 36
13 M'gladbach 33 8 11 14 38 53 -15 35
14 FC Koln 33 7 11 15 48 58 -10 32
15 Werder Bremen 33 8 8 17 37 58 -21 32
16 Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 42 68 -26 26
17 Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 41 70 -29 26
18 St Pauli 33 6 8 19 28 57 -29 26

Recent Trends

Union Berlin W D L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)

Augsburg W W D W D

  • Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Leverkusen (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Union Berlin

xG (avg) 1.39
xGA (avg) 1.14
Clean Sheets 0

Augsburg

xG (avg) 2.31
xGA (avg) 2.15
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Union Berlin are slight favourites at home, with a 52.0% probability of victory against Augsburg’s 24.0%, and a 23.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a Union win in a reasonably open contest, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 52.0% probability. In the table, Augsburg sit 9th on 43 points, while Union Berlin are 12th on 36 points and still glancing nervously over their shoulders.

Match Analysis

Union Berlin come into this with mixed form but signs of life. They beat Mainz 3-1 away, drew 2-2 at home to FC Köln and lost 3-1 at RB Leipzig – three straight matches with both teams scoring and four total goals each time. Defensively, they’ve been porous (no clean sheets in their last five and 1.8 goals conceded on average), but their recent attacking output has improved from their season-long struggles, backed by 1.39 expected goals per game in that five-match spell. Augsburg arrive in Berlin on a stronger run: back-to-back 3-1 wins over M’gladbach and Werder Bremen followed by a 1-1 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt. They’ve quietly put together a solid attacking stretch, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last five, but the underlying numbers are even more aggressive – 2.31 xG for and 2.15 xG against per game. That suggests an open style that creates plenty at both ends, which could suit Union’s renewed attacking edge but also expose their fragile back line.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 52.0%, and the recent scorelines support it. All 3 of Union Berlin’s last matches finished 3-1, 2-2 and 1-3 – 3 out of 3 comfortably over 2.5. Augsburg’s last three produced 3-1, 3-1 and 1-1, meaning 2 of 3 went over 2.5. With Union averaging 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded, and Augsburg combining 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, plus high xG figures on both sides, another game tilted towards goals looks more likely than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction points to 9.97 total corners, essentially a 10-corner game. Union’s last three have produced corner counts of 8-7, 2-5 and 4-10, showing big swings depending on the opponent but a tendency to concede plenty when pushed back. Augsburg’s recent games finished 2-2, 2-8 and 9-7 on corners, which underlines their willingness to attack down the flanks and sustain pressure. With both sides prepared to trade attacks, the predicted corners total around 10 fits the pattern of two teams who don’t shy away from wide play and crossing.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction is for 27.05 total attempts, which fits both sides’ recent profiles. Union’s last three matches saw combined shots of 30 (16-14 vs Mainz), 21 (13-8 vs Köln) and 25 (5-20 vs Leipzig), while Augsburg’s produced 31 (15-16 vs M’gladbach), 29 (14-15 vs Bremen) and 36 (17-19 vs Frankfurt). Given Augsburg’s high xG numbers (2.31 for, 2.15 against) and Union’s habit of allowing opponents to rack up efforts, the expected shots figure aligns with a game where both goalkeepers are kept busy.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Union Berlin wins by X goals. Negative = Augsburg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Union Berlin vs Augsburg with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Union Berlin vs Augsburg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Union Berlin favoured by +0.55 goals, reflecting their home advantage and slightly higher win probability. Union’s last three show a goal difference of -1 overall (3-1, 2-2, 1-3), while Augsburg are +4 in that span (3-1, 3-1, 1-1). Despite Augsburg’s better recent margins, Union’s need for points and home comfort tilt the expected spread in their favour, especially against an Augsburg defence conceding 1.4 goals per game and allowing plenty of chances.

Final Prediction

Union Berlin’s edge comes from home advantage and Augsburg’s openness, which could play into the hosts’ improving attack despite their defensive issues. Augsburg’s recent form ensures this is far from a foregone conclusion, but the numbers lean slightly towards Union. The key factor to watch will be how Union’s defence copes with Augsburg’s chance-heavy style – if they hold up reasonably well, the home side have just enough to take it.

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