Bundesliga 2025-2026: Union Berlin vs Leverkusen Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Union Berlin

Home Team
17%
VS

Leverkusen

Away Team
67%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 22 18 3 1 82 19 63 57
2 Dortmund 22 15 6 1 47 20 27 51
3 Hoffenheim 22 14 3 5 47 28 19 45
4 Stuttgart 22 13 3 6 41 29 12 42
5 RB Leipzig 22 12 4 6 42 30 12 40
6 Leverkusen 21 12 3 6 43 27 16 39
7 Ein Frankfurt 22 8 7 7 44 46 -2 31
8 Freiburg 22 8 6 8 32 36 -4 30
9 Hamburg 21 6 7 8 24 31 -7 25
10 Union Berlin 22 6 7 9 28 37 -9 25
11 Augsburg 22 7 4 11 25 39 -14 25
12 FC Koln 22 6 5 11 31 37 -6 23
13 M'gladbach 22 5 7 10 25 37 -12 22
14 Mainz 22 5 6 11 25 37 -12 21
15 Wolfsburg 22 5 5 12 31 46 -15 20
16 Werder Bremen 22 4 7 11 22 42 -20 19
17 St Pauli 22 4 5 13 20 39 -19 17
18 Heidenheim 22 3 4 15 19 48 -29 13

Recent Trends

Union Berlin L D L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 1)

Leverkusen W D W W L

  • Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Union Berlin

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.67
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.03
# Clean Sheets: 0

Leverkusen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.53
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.66
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are strong favourites here, with a 67.0% probability of an away win against Union Berlin’s 17.0% chance at home, and a 17.0% likelihood of a draw. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0% probability. In the Bundesliga table, Leverkusen sit 6th on 39 points, while Union are 10th on 25, underlining the gap between the two sides.

Match Analysis

Union Berlin come into this one on a poor run: two defeats and a draw in their last three (2-3 at Hamburg, 1-1 vs Eintracht Frankfurt, 1-3 at Hoffenheim). Interestingly, they’ve often carried more attacking threat than the results suggest – they out-shot Hamburg 12-13, Frankfurt 11-3 and Hoffenheim 16-9, and their last five matches show 1.666 expected goals (xG) for per game versus 1.4 actually scored. Defensively, though, they are leaking too many, conceding 1.8 goals on average in that span and failing to keep a single clean sheet. Leverkusen arrive in better shape, unbeaten in their last three with two wins and a draw: 4-0 at home to St Pauli, 1-1 away at M’gladbach and 3-1 away at Eintracht Frankfurt. They’ve balanced efficiency with resilience, scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 1.2 on average over their last five, with two clean sheets in that period. Their xG profile (1.532 for and 1.66 against on average) suggests open games where both sides create, which fits with their recent scorelines and supports their status as favourites despite being away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards goals in this one, with an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0% probability. Two of Union Berlin’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (2-3 at Hamburg, 1-3 at Hoffenheim), with only the 1-1 vs Frankfurt staying under 2.5. Leverkusen have also seen two of their last three go over (4-0 vs St Pauli, 3-1 at Frankfurt), with just the 1-1 in M’gladbach under, and the combination of both teams averaging around 1.4 goals scored plus relatively high xG at both ends points towards another match more likely to clear the three-goal line than not.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.55, which fits a game where both sides look to attack but not relentlessly. Union’s last three have produced 9, 7 and 13 total corners respectively, with Union themselves racking up 3, 5 and then a big 10 against Hoffenheim. Leverkusen’s matches have seen 11, 4 and 11 total corners, suggesting some variability but generally a decent volume, consistent with a corners prediction just under double digits. Both teams’ willingness to get shots away and work wide areas points toward around 9–10 predicted corners overall.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game sit at 24.76 total, indicating a reasonably open contest without being a total shootout. Union have been lively in front of goal recently, taking 12, 11 and 16 shots in their last three while allowing 13, 3 and 9. Leverkusen’s recent games have featured 12, 10 and 11 attempts from them, with 11, 9 and 11 faced, so a shots prediction in the mid‑20s lines up well with their attacking intent and the xG figures that show both creating regular chances.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen’s edge comes from their superior league position, better recent results and slightly more balanced goal record at both ends. Union’s attacking numbers suggest they can trouble them, but their lack of clean sheets and higher goals conceded tilt the tie towards the visitors. A key factor to watch will be how often Leverkusen can turn their possession into clear chances against a Union side that is creating plenty but struggling to keep things tight at the back.

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