Bundesliga 2025-2026: Union Berlin vs St Pauli Prediction - 5 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Union Berlin

Home Team
44%
VS

St Pauli

Away Team
32%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 23.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 27 22 4 1 97 25 72 70
2 Dortmund 27 18 7 2 58 28 30 61
3 Stuttgart 27 16 5 6 56 36 20 53
4 RB Leipzig 27 15 5 7 53 35 18 50
5 Hoffenheim 27 15 5 7 54 39 15 50
6 Leverkusen 27 13 7 7 52 36 16 46
7 Ein Frankfurt 27 10 8 9 50 51 -1 38
8 Freiburg 27 10 7 10 39 44 -5 37
9 Union Berlin 27 8 7 12 31 46 -15 31
10 Augsburg 27 9 4 14 33 50 -17 31
11 Mainz 27 7 9 11 33 42 -9 30
12 Hamburg 27 7 9 11 31 40 -9 30
13 M'gladbach 27 7 8 12 33 46 -13 29
14 Werder Bremen 27 7 7 13 30 47 -17 28
15 FC Koln 27 6 8 13 38 47 -9 26
16 St Pauli 27 6 6 15 24 44 -20 24
17 Wolfsburg 27 5 6 16 35 57 -22 21
18 Heidenheim 27 3 6 18 27 61 -34 15

Recent Trends

Union Berlin L W L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 0)

St Pauli L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Union Berlin

xG (avg) 1.56
xGA (avg) 1.51
Clean Sheets 2

St Pauli

xG (avg) 1.13
xGA (avg) 2.12
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Union Berlin are slight favourites at home with a 44.0% chance of victory, ahead of St Pauli’s 32.0% likelihood and a 24.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, suggesting a tight, low‑scoring contest between 9th‑placed Union (31 points) and 16th‑placed St Pauli (24 points) in a game with serious implications at both ends of the Bundesliga table.

Match Analysis

Union Berlin come into this on an inconsistent run: a heavy 4-0 defeat at Bayern, a solid 1-0 away win at Freiburg, and a damaging 4-1 home loss to Werder Bremen. Across those three, they have looked vulnerable defensively – nine goals conceded – yet they have shown they can grind out results, especially in that Freiburg win where they took their one big chance and held on under pressure. Their recent advanced numbers back up the idea of a more solid side than the raw scorelines suggest: 1.56 expected goals created and 1.514 expected goals conceded on average over the last five matches, plus two clean sheets, hint at a team that usually keeps things tighter than the Bayern and Bremen thrashings imply. St Pauli are in deeper trouble, with back‑to‑back defeats against Freiburg (2-1) and M’gladbach (2-0) followed by a goalless draw at home to Eintracht Frankfurt. They’ve only scored once in their last three games and have taken just one point from those fixtures, despite competing reasonably well in terms of shots in each match. Their recent metrics tell a similar story: just 0.8 goals scored on average over the last five games, with 2.2 conceded, and an xG of 1.13 for versus 2.116 against. That gap suggests they are regularly second best and gives Union a statistical edge, especially in both boxes.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 with a 55.0% implied probability, despite a 45.0% chance for over 2.5 goals. Recent patterns are mixed: 2 out of Union Berlin’s last 3 matches went over 2.5 goals (4-0 vs Bayern, 4-1 vs Bremen), with just the 1-0 at Freiburg staying under. For St Pauli, 2 of their last 3 also went over 2.5 (2-1 vs Freiburg, 2-0 vs M’gladbach) and only the 0-0 with Frankfurt was under 2.5. What tilts the over 2.5 prediction back towards a low‑scoring call is the underlying averages: Union score 1.0 and concede 2.0 per game recently, off 1.56 xG for and 1.514 xG against, while St Pauli’s attack is even more modest at 0.8 goals from 1.13 xG. Both sides have managed two clean sheets in their last five games, so the numbers point more towards a cautious, nervy battle than a shoot‑out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total sits at 9.43, suggesting a mid‑range corners prediction rather than an especially wide‑open match. Union Berlin’s last three outings produced corner counts of 1-12 (vs Bayern), 2-6 (vs Freiburg) and 1-3 (vs Bremen), so their games have generally been low in corners from Union’s perspective but not devoid of opposition pressure. St Pauli, by contrast, have seen 3-2, 2-2 and 6-5 in corners, indicating relatively balanced matches with moderate attacking phases on both sides. Given neither team is racking up a huge volume of corners but both do generate spells of pressure, an expected total around nine or ten predicted corners fits a contest likely to be cagey rather than end‑to‑end.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 23.91 hints at a game with a reasonable amount of goalmouth action, but not a barrage. Union have seen 5, 9 and 9 shots taken in their last three games, while allowing 31, 19 and 15 – evidence that they often absorb a lot of pressure, especially against stronger opponents. St Pauli’s recent shot numbers – 12, 8 and 11 attempts – show a side capable of creating chances without being especially clinical. Marrying those figures with Union’s 1.56 xG and St Pauli’s 1.13 xG over the last five matches, this shots prediction points to a match where both teams get efforts away but quality chances are limited, in line with the expectation of under 2.5 goals.

Final Prediction

Union Berlin’s home advantage, slightly stronger underlying numbers, and St Pauli’s blunt attack give the hosts a narrow edge in what should be a tense, low‑margin game. With both sides struggling in front of goal, the battle in midfield and which team can convert limited chances – especially from set pieces – looks likely to decide the outcome.

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