Bundesliga 2025-2026: Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen Prediction - 8 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Union Berlin

Home Team
34%
VS

Werder Bremen

Away Team
41%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 24 20 3 1 88 23 65 63
2 Dortmund 24 15 7 2 51 25 26 52
3 Hoffenheim 24 14 4 6 49 31 18 46
4 Stuttgart 24 14 4 6 48 32 16 46
5 RB Leipzig 24 13 5 6 46 33 13 44
6 Leverkusen 24 13 4 7 45 29 16 43
7 Ein Frankfurt 24 9 7 8 48 49 -1 34
8 Freiburg 24 9 6 9 34 39 -5 33
9 Augsburg 24 9 4 11 30 41 -11 31
10 Union Berlin 24 7 7 10 29 38 -9 28
11 Hamburg 24 6 8 10 26 35 -9 26
12 M'gladbach 24 6 7 11 27 39 -12 25
13 FC Koln 24 6 6 12 33 41 -8 24
14 Mainz 24 5 8 11 27 39 -12 23
15 St Pauli 24 6 5 13 23 40 -17 23
16 Werder Bremen 24 5 7 12 25 44 -19 22
17 Wolfsburg 24 5 5 14 33 53 -20 20
18 Heidenheim 24 3 5 16 22 53 -31 14

Recent Trends

Union Berlin L W L D L

  • Last Match: L vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)

Werder Bremen W L L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Union Berlin

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.63
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.17
# Clean Sheets: 1

Werder Bremen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.94
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.39
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Werder Bremen are marginal favourites here, with a 41.0% chance of victory compared to Union Berlin’s 34.0%, and a 25.0% probability of a draw, pointing towards a slight away win despite Union’s higher league position (Union 10th on 28 points, Bremen 16th on 22). The model leans towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 53.0%. With both teams hovering near the wrong end of the table and the bottom two going down, the stakes could further fuel an attacking, tense encounter.

Match Analysis

Union Berlin come into this on a mixed run: a narrow 1-0 home win over Leverkusen sandwiched between two away defeats at Hamburg (2-3) and M’gladbach (0-1). That sequence shows their volatility – capable of shutting down a top-six attack at home, but conceding cheap goals and creating little control on their travels. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with underlying numbers slightly more encouraging: 1.63 expected goals (xG) for and just 1.166 xG against per match suggests they are generally creating and defending better than their raw results show, even if they’ve only managed one clean sheet in that stretch. Bremen’s picture is more worrying in front of goal. A 2-0 home win over bottom side Heidenheim has been their only recent bright spot, following a 1-2 defeat at St Pauli and a 0-3 home loss to Bayern Munich. Across their last five, they’ve scored just 0.2 goals per game while conceding 1.4 – stark numbers for a side in a relegation battle. Their xG of 0.942 for and 1.39 against per game hints that they are creating some chances but struggling to convert, and they remain defensively vulnerable. Still, their recent shot counts – 17, 13 and 14 attempts respectively – show that they aren’t passive; they just lack efficiency in the box.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 53.0% edges this towards a game with goals. Two of Union Berlin’s last three matches went over 2.5 total goals (3-2 at Hamburg, 0-1 at M’gladbach, 1-0 v Leverkusen), while only one of Bremen’s last three cleared the line (2-0 v Heidenheim, 1-2 at St Pauli, 0-3 v Bayern). Union’s averages of 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, combined with their 1.63 xG for, point to a side more likely to be involved in open contests, and Bremen’s 1.39 xG against suggests they give up enough chances for this to go over again.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 9.4, which fits with recent patterns for both sides. Union’s last three matches produced 8, 9 and 9 corners (2-6, 4-5, 3-6), while Bremen’s delivered 5, 6 and 6 (3-2, 5-1, 2-4). That consistency around the 8–9 mark supports a corners prediction close to the 9–10 range, reflecting two teams that do push forward but not in relentless, wide-heavy fashion; they create pressure in spells rather than all game long.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s expected shots figure of 24.49 suggests a reasonably busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Union’s recent games saw them take 6, 8 and 12 shots while facing 21, 16 and 13, indicating that their matches often feature around 25–30 total efforts. Bremen, meanwhile, have attempted 17, 13 and 14 shots and faced 9, 5 and 11, again clustering around the mid-20s. Those volumes match their xG profiles: Union’s higher xG hints at slightly better-quality chances, while Bremen’s near-1.0 xG per game suggests plenty of attempts but not always from prime positions.

Final Prediction

Werder Bremen’s slight edge in win probability owes more to Union’s inconsistency than to Bremen’s form, but Union’s stronger xG figures and home advantage could easily tilt the balance on the day. Watch the battle in both boxes: Union’s ability to turn their 1.63 xG into actual goals, against a Bremen defence averaging 1.39 xG against, may ultimately decide whether the away edge in the prediction holds up.

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