Bundesliga 2025-2026: Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Union Berlin

Home Team
54%
VS

Wolfsburg

Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 29 24 4 1 105 27 78 76
2 Dortmund 29 19 7 3 60 29 31 64
3 Stuttgart 29 17 5 7 60 38 22 56
4 RB Leipzig 29 17 5 7 56 36 20 56
5 Leverkusen 29 15 7 7 59 39 20 52
6 Hoffenheim 29 15 6 8 57 43 14 51
7 Ein Frankfurt 29 11 9 9 54 54 0 42
8 Freiburg 29 11 7 11 42 47 -5 40
9 Mainz 29 8 9 12 35 44 -9 33
10 Augsburg 29 9 6 14 36 53 -17 33
11 Union Berlin 29 8 8 13 33 50 -17 32
12 Hamburg 29 7 10 12 32 45 -13 31
13 FC Koln 29 7 9 13 43 50 -7 30
14 M'gladbach 29 7 9 13 35 49 -14 30
15 Werder Bremen 29 7 7 15 32 52 -20 28
16 St Pauli 29 6 7 16 25 50 -25 25
17 Wolfsburg 29 5 6 18 39 65 -26 21
18 Heidenheim 29 4 7 18 32 64 -32 19

Recent Trends

Union Berlin L D L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 4)

Wolfsburg L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 6)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Union Berlin

xG (avg) 1.19
xGA (avg) 1.27
Clean Sheets 1

Wolfsburg

xG (avg) 1.14
xGA (avg) 2.75
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Union Berlin are favoured to take all three points, with a 54.0% probability of a home win against relegation‑threatened Wolfsburg, who have just a 23.0% chance, and a 22.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a tight contest with an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite a 50.0% likelihood of the total going over that line. Union sit 11th on 32 points, while Wolfsburg are 17th on 21 points and staring at automatic relegation.

Match Analysis

Neither side comes into this with much momentum, but Union Berlin at least have the sense of stability that comes from mid‑table. Their last three outings brought a 1-3 defeat at Heidenheim, a 1-1 home draw with St Pauli and a heavy 0-4 loss at Bayern. The pattern is clear: Union are struggling in both boxes, scoring just twice in those three games and conceding eight, although at home they were the better side against St Pauli in terms of corners (7-2) and shots (16-9), suggesting they can still impose themselves in Köpenick against weaker opposition. Wolfsburg’s form is even more worrying: three straight defeats – 1-2 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt, 3-6 away at Leverkusen and 0-1 at home to Werder Bremen – underline why they are 17th. Defensively, they have been wide open, shipping nine goals in those three matches and 2.8 on average over their last five, backed up by a very high 2.748 expected goals conceded. Going forward they average 1.2 goals and 1.136 xG over the last five, so they can create, but their imbalance makes it hard to see them controlling this game. Union’s defensive numbers are steadier – 1.8 goals conceded and 1.268 xG against on average in the last five – which, at home, gives them a slight edge in what looks like a nervy relegation‑shaped battle.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to an under 2.5 prediction, even with a 50.0% probability on over 2.5 goals, suggesting a finely balanced goals market. Two of Union Berlin’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (1-3 vs Heidenheim, 0-4 vs Bayern), with only the 1-1 draw against St Pauli staying under. Wolfsburg also had two high‑scoring matches in that stretch – the 3-6 in Leverkusen and 1-2 vs Frankfurt – with the 0-1 loss to Bremen going under. With Union averaging just 0.8 goals scored and Wolfsburg 1.2 across their last five, and both sides’ xG figures sitting around 1.1 per game, the expectation is for chances but not necessarily a goal glut.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.83, hinting at a match with a fair number of attacks without being end‑to‑end chaos. Union’s last three games produced corner counts of 5-3, 7-2 and 1-12, showing that at home to St Pauli they can rack up corners, but they can also be pinned back by stronger sides like Bayern. Wolfsburg’s recent figures – 7-7, 2-12 and 8-4 – suggest a team that often concedes territory but still swings in a decent number of their own. Taken together, the predicted corners tally reflects two sides that rely on wing play and crosses when chasing points, especially in tight, scrap‑heavy fixtures like this.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction is for 26.61 expected shots in total, indicating a busy game in and around both penalty areas. Union’s last three matches saw them take 10, 16 and 5 shots while facing 7, 9 and 31, heavily inflated by the Bayern onslaught. Wolfsburg’s sequence – 22, 11 and 11 shots taken, with 10, 25 and 8 conceded – shows a side that is often involved in high‑volume shooting contests, especially away to stronger opponents. Given both teams’ xG numbers just above 1.1 per game, that level of expected shots lines up with a contest where quantity of attempts might outweigh pure finishing quality.

Final Prediction

Union Berlin’s home advantage, slightly more solid defensive metrics and Wolfsburg’s alarming 2.8 goals conceded per game over the last five tilt this matchup in favour of the hosts. Wolfsburg’s need for points could open the game up, but their defensive frailty is hard to ignore. The key factor to watch will be how effectively Union can control territory – if they pin Wolfsburg back and turn pressure into corners and sustained shots, the 54.0% home‑win prediction will look well founded.

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