Bundesliga 2025-2026: Werder Bremen vs Augsburg Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Werder Bremen

Home Team
57%
VS

Augsburg

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 28.3
Expected Spread: +0.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 31 26 4 1 113 32 81 82
2 Dortmund 31 20 7 4 65 31 34 67
3 RB Leipzig 31 19 5 7 62 38 24 62
4 Stuttgart 31 17 6 8 63 43 20 57
5 Hoffenheim 31 17 6 8 61 45 16 57
6 Leverkusen 31 16 7 8 62 42 20 55
7 Ein Frankfurt 31 11 10 10 56 58 -2 43
8 Freiburg 31 12 7 12 44 52 -8 43
9 Augsburg 31 10 7 14 39 55 -16 37
10 Mainz 31 8 10 13 39 49 -10 34
11 M'gladbach 31 7 11 13 36 50 -14 32
12 Werder Bremen 31 8 8 15 36 54 -18 32
13 Union Berlin 31 8 8 15 35 55 -20 32
14 FC Koln 31 7 10 14 45 53 -8 31
15 Hamburg 31 7 10 14 34 50 -16 31
16 St Pauli 31 6 8 17 26 53 -27 26
17 Wolfsburg 31 6 7 18 41 66 -25 25
18 Heidenheim 31 5 7 19 35 66 -31 22

Recent Trends

Werder Bremen D W L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 0)

Augsburg D W D D L

  • Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Leverkusen (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Werder Bremen

xG (avg) 1.53
xGA (avg) 1.63
Clean Sheets 1

Augsburg

xG (avg) 1.97
xGA (avg) 2.42
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Werder Bremen are slight but clear favourites here, with a 57.0% chance of victory compared to Augsburg’s 21.0%, and a 21.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win and leans towards an over 2.5 prediction on goals (51.0% for over), in a matchup between 12th-placed Werder (32 points) and 9th-placed Augsburg (37 points).

Match Analysis

Werder come in from a mixed but spirited run: a vital 3-1 home win over Hamburg sandwiched between a 1-3 defeat at FC Köln and a hard-fought 1-1 draw away at Stuttgart. The pattern is clear: they’re competitive but inconsistent, capable of both exposing and being exposed, as shown by conceding 54 league goals and allowing 25 shots at Köln and 20 at Stuttgart. Their recent numbers back that up – 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match over the last five, with xG of 1.53 for and 1.634 against, plus just one clean sheet. Augsburg, three places higher in the table, are on a solid three-game unbeaten run: 1-1 against Eintracht Frankfurt, a statement 2-1 win away at Leverkusen, and a 2-2 draw with Hoffenheim. They’ve been entertaining but open: 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average in their last five, while their xG profile (1.974 for, 2.424 against) suggests they create plenty but also allow a lot. With no clean sheets in that span, Augsburg’s approach should suit a game that swings from end to end, but Werder’s home advantage and slightly more balanced underlying numbers tilt the scales their way.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Werder Bremen
Goals in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 51.0%, and the recent scorelines support a higher-scoring game. Two of Werder Bremen’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-1 vs Hamburg, 1-3 at Köln), while Augsburg also saw two of their last three go over (2-1 at Leverkusen, 2-2 vs Hoffenheim). With Werder averaging 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded, and Augsburg at 1.4 for and 1.6 against, plus both sides posting attacking xG close to or above 1.5 per game, the data leans more towards over than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Corners in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.95, putting the corners prediction just around the 10-mark that fits a fairly open Bundesliga contest. Werder’s last three produced corner counts of 2, 7 and 5 for them (conceding 14, 3 and 8), while Augsburg posted 9, 4 and 4 (conceding 7, 11 and 4). Both sides have shown they can rack up corners when they attack from wide areas, especially Augsburg at home to Frankfurt, so the predicted corners figure reflects two teams willing to push forward even if they aren’t relentless crossing machines.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Shots in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 28.33, a shots prediction that sits comfortably in line with recent numbers. Werder’s last three matches saw combined shot totals of 29 (Stuttgart), 29 (Hamburg) and 31 (Köln), while Augsburg games produced 36 (Frankfurt), a huge 46 against Leverkusen, and 30 versus Hoffenheim. Given both teams’ xG figures around the 1.5–2.0 range, it’s reasonable to anticipate close to 30 expected shots with both defences allowing opponents to pull the trigger freely.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Werder Bremen wins by X goals. Negative = Augsburg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Werder Bremen vs Augsburg with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Werder Bremen vs Augsburg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.66 in favour of Werder Bremen, meaning the home side are projected to win by roughly two-thirds of a goal. Werder’s recent goal differences (+2 vs Hamburg, -2 at Köln, 0 at Stuttgart) and Augsburg’s (+1 at Leverkusen, and two draws) show neither side is routinely winning by big margins, but Werder’s home form nudges them ahead. That aligns neatly with the 57.0% home-win probability and the fact that Augsburg’s defence, conceding 1.6 goals per game recently with no clean sheets, looks slightly more vulnerable.

Final Prediction

Werder Bremen’s edge comes from home advantage, a marginally better defensive profile, and Augsburg’s tendency to allow high xG and shot volumes. Augsburg’s attacking threat should keep them in the contest, but their porous back line tilts the balance towards a narrow home win. Watch the battle between Werder’s attack and Augsburg’s shaky defence – if Werder start fast, the game could quickly open up in their favour.

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