Bundesliga 2025-2026: Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Werder Bremen

Home Team
0%
VS

Bayern Munich

Away Team
99%
Draw: 1%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 29.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 21 17 3 1 79 19 60 54
2 Dortmund 21 14 6 1 43 20 23 48
3 Hoffenheim 21 13 3 5 44 28 16 42
4 RB Leipzig 21 12 3 6 40 28 12 39
5 Stuttgart 21 12 3 6 38 28 10 39
6 Leverkusen 20 11 3 6 39 27 12 36
7 Freiburg 21 8 6 7 32 33 -1 30
8 Ein Frankfurt 21 7 7 7 41 46 -5 28
9 Union Berlin 21 6 7 8 26 34 -8 25
10 FC Koln 21 6 5 10 30 34 -4 23
11 Hamburg 20 5 7 8 21 29 -8 22
12 M'gladbach 21 5 7 9 25 34 -9 22
13 Augsburg 21 6 4 11 24 39 -15 22
14 Mainz 21 5 6 10 25 33 -8 21
15 Wolfsburg 21 5 4 12 29 44 -15 19
16 Werder Bremen 21 4 7 10 22 39 -17 19
17 St Pauli 21 4 5 12 20 35 -15 17
18 Heidenheim 21 3 4 14 19 47 -28 13

Recent Trends

Werder Bremen L D L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 3)

Bayern Munich W D L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Werder Bremen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.33
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.25
# Clean Sheets: 0

Bayern Munich

Average Expected Goals (xG): 3.30
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.69
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Bayern Munich are overwhelming favourites here, with a 99.0% probability of an away win against Werder Bremen and just a 1.0% chance of a draw. The model backs an over 2.5 prediction with a 62.0% likelihood of at least three goals. Bayern arrive as league leaders in 1st place on 54 points, while Werder sit down in 16th on 19 points and fighting to stay out of the relegation places.

Match Analysis

Werder Bremen come into this under heavy pressure and with poor results: one draw and two defeats in their last three league games. They have scored just once across those matches (1-1 vs M’gladbach) and failed to find the net against both Freiburg (0-1) and Hoffenheim (0-2), despite actually out-shooting all three opponents (17-7, 18-7, 26-12). Their advanced numbers suggest they create more than the raw goals show: 1.334 expected goals per game over the last five and only 1.254 expected goals conceded, but 2.2 actual goals conceded on average and zero clean sheets underline a team that is being punished at both ends. Bayern, meanwhile, remain a ruthless attacking machine. Across their last three, they hammered Hoffenheim 5-1, drew 2-2 away at Hamburg and surprisingly lost 2-1 at home to Augsburg – yet still scored eight goals in that short run. Over the last five games they are averaging 3.8 goals scored per match from 3.302 expected goals, while conceding just 0.8 goals despite allowing 1.688 expected goals. That profile – high-volume attack with occasional defensive slips – explains why they top the table with 79 scored and just 19 conceded in 21 matches and come into Bremen as massive favourites.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Werder Bremen
Goals in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction with a 62.0% probability of at least three goals in this match. Two of Bayern’s last three games have comfortably gone over 2.5 goals (5-1 vs Hoffenheim, 2-2 vs Hamburg), while only one of Bremen’s last three has done so (the 1-1 and 0-2 results stayed under 2.5). Given Bayern’s 3.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, combined with Werder’s 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded and both sides’ positive xG numbers in attack, the data leans strongly towards another high-scoring Bayern outing.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Corners in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this game is 9.54, pointing towards a match with around 9–10 corners. Werder’s recent games produced 12, 10 and 13 total corners, reflecting a team that concedes territory but still pushes forward enough to rack up set pieces. Bayern’s last three have seen 11, 12 and 12 corners, driven by their sustained attacking play and pressure in the final third. That makes a relatively high corners prediction logical, with Bayern’s front-foot style and Bremen’s tendency to concede shots and blocks combining to generate frequent corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Shots in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game sit at 29.59 total, suggesting both sides will be reasonably active in front of goal. Werder’s last three matches have seen them involved in games with 24, 25 and 38 total shots, while Bayern’s have produced 36, 27 and 31. With Bayern averaging over three expected goals and Werder also creating chances despite low scoring, a shots prediction near 30 aligns well with the attacking metrics and should underpin a healthy xG figure overall.

Final Prediction

Bayern’s edge comes from their devastating attack, superior form and league-leading status contrasted with Bremen’s struggles near the relegation zone. The key factor to watch will be how long Werder can resist Bayern’s pressure; if the visitors score early, the game could quickly tilt into a one-sided, high-shot, high-corner contest dominated by the champions-elect.

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