Bundesliga 2025-2026: Werder Bremen vs Dortmund Prediction - 16 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Werder Bremen

Home Team
31%
VS

Dortmund

Away Team
44%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: -0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 33 27 5 1 117 35 82 86
2 Dortmund 33 21 7 5 68 34 34 70
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 65 43 22 65
4 Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 69 47 22 61
5 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 65 48 17 61
6 Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 67 46 21 58
7 Freiburg 33 12 8 13 47 56 -9 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 59 63 -4 43
9 Augsburg 33 12 7 14 45 57 -12 43
10 Mainz 33 9 10 14 42 53 -11 37
11 Hamburg 33 9 10 14 39 53 -14 37
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 40 58 -18 36
13 M'gladbach 33 8 11 14 38 53 -15 35
14 FC Koln 33 7 11 15 48 58 -10 32
15 Werder Bremen 33 8 8 17 37 58 -21 32
16 Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 42 68 -26 26
17 Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 41 70 -29 26
18 St Pauli 33 6 8 19 28 57 -29 26

Recent Trends

Werder Bremen L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 3)

Dortmund W L W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Werder Bremen

xG (avg) 1.54
xGA (avg) 1.91
Clean Sheets 0

Dortmund

xG (avg) 1.16
xGA (avg) 1.98
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund are slight favourites here, with a 44.0% chance of taking all three points away at 15th-placed Werder Bremen, while the home side are given a 31.0% chance and the draw sits at 24.0%. The model edges towards an away win and expects goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at a 57.0% probability. Dortmund arrive as Bundesliga runners-up in waiting (2nd with 70 points), facing a Bremen side still looking nervously over their shoulder at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Werder Bremen’s form over the last three matches underlines why they are down in 15th: back-to-back defeats against Augsburg (1-3) and Hoffenheim (0-1), followed by a battling 1-1 draw away at Stuttgart. They’ve been competitive in spells – edging Augsburg on shots (15-14) and keeping Hoffenheim to a single goal – but they lack control and cutting edge, with no clean sheets in their last five and an average of 1.6 goals conceded in that stretch. Their underlying numbers tell a similar story: 1.536 xG for and 1.906 xG against per game over the last five, suggesting they tend to create, but also allow more chances than they’d like. Dortmund’s recent run has been more solid than spectacular, but the ceiling is clearly higher. Wins over Freiburg (4-0) and Eintracht Frankfurt (3-2) bookend a flat 0-1 defeat at Mönchengladbach, leaving them at 21 wins from 33 in the league and comfortably in 2nd. Across their last three, they have scored 7 and conceded 3, with performances at home in particular looking dominant (17-7 shots vs Freiburg, 13-9 vs Frankfurt). Interestingly, the advanced metrics show some defensive vulnerability – Dortmund are allowing 1.984 xG per game over the last five, slightly worse than Bremen – but their superior finishing quality (1.4 goals from 1.156 xG) is tilting tight contests their way.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Werder Bremen
Goals in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 57.0%, and that fits the recent patterns. Two of Bremen’s last three have gone over 2.5 (1-3 vs Augsburg, 0-1 vs Hoffenheim, 1-1 vs Stuttgart), while Dortmund also saw two of their last three go over (3-2 vs Frankfurt, 0-1 vs Gladbach, 4-0 vs Freiburg). Bremen’s last-five averages of 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, plus Dortmund’s 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, backed by both sides posting xG for above 1.1 per game, support the idea that this is more likely a high-scoring rather than an under 2.5 affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Corners in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match sits at 9.1, pointing to a game with a decent amount of attacking play but not necessarily a barrage of set-pieces. Bremen’s last three have produced wildly fluctuating corner counts – 8-2 in their favour against Augsburg, but 3-8 and 2-14 away at Hoffenheim and Stuttgart – suggesting they can be pinned back for long spells by stronger opponents like Dortmund. The visitors have been more balanced, with 6-2, 1-1 and 5-0 corner tallies, showing that when they dominate territory they rack up plenty, making an attacking, front-foot style consistent with the corners prediction and the 9.1 predicted corners figure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Shots in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction points to 25.14 expected shots in total, which aligns with both sides’ recent histories of open games. Bremen’s last three have seen them take 11, 15 and 9 shots, while facing 15, 14 and 20 – matches that quickly turn into end-to-end exchanges. Dortmund, meanwhile, have produced 13, 6 and 17 shots in their last three, again reflecting a side that can explode in the final third when they get on top. With both teams’ xG for hovering above 1.1 per game and xG against close to 2.0, the expected shots tally looks realistic for another chance-heavy encounter.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Werder Bremen wins by X goals. Negative = Dortmund wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Werder Bremen vs Dortmund with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Werder Bremen vs Dortmund
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.64 in favour of Dortmund (negative meaning the away side is expected to be stronger), mirroring the 44.0% away-win probability. Recent goal differences support that tilt: Bremen are -3 over their last three (2 scored, 5 conceded), while Dortmund are +4 (7 scored, 3 conceded) over the same span. Given Bremen’s lack of clean sheets and higher xG conceded, combined with Dortmund’s more efficient attack and 34-goal positive difference over the season, the expected spread makes sense.

Final Prediction

Dortmund’s edge comes from their superior attacking quality and more reliable finishing, even if their defensive numbers aren’t flawless. Bremen’s openness and inability to keep teams out play directly into the visitors’ strengths. The key factor to watch will be how often Dortmund can isolate Bremen’s back line in transition; if they manage that regularly, the probabilities strongly favour an away win with goals.

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