Bundesliga 2025-2026: Werder Bremen vs Hamburg Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Both sides come into this derby under pressure near the bottom half of the table. Werder Bremen’s last three matches read: defeat at FC Köln (1-3), a narrow home loss to RB Leipzig (1-2), and a gritty 1-0 away win at Wolfsburg. That run shows a team still vulnerable at the back, but capable of keeping things tight and nicking results, as seen in the clean sheet in Wolfsburg. Their recent games have generally been close, and they’ve not been blown away despite their lowly position. Hamburg’s recent form, however, is more chaotic. A heavy 0-4 loss at Stuttgart and a 2-3 defeat at Dortmund sandwich a 1-1 home draw with Augsburg. They are conceding a lot of chances and goals against stronger opponents, and crucially, they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches. While they average 1.4 goals scored over the last five, they are letting in 1.8 per game, and their expected goals conceded figure of 3.046 per match is a major red flag, suggesting opponents regularly create plenty against them. The advanced numbers favour Bremen slightly. Werder’s last five show 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average, but their xG is healthier at 1.408 for and 1.704 against – indicating they’re creating enough to be more dangerous than their raw goal tally suggests. Hamburg’s attack looks decent on paper with 1.4 goals per game, but an xG of 1.164 points to a degree of overperformance, while defensively they’re giving up far too much. In a tight relegation battle context, Bremen’s slightly more solid defensive profile and home advantage tilt the scales their way.