Bundesliga 2025-2026: Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Werder Bremen

Home Team
72%
VS

Heidenheim

Away Team
13%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 26.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 23 19 3 1 85 21 64 60
2 Dortmund 23 15 7 1 49 22 27 52
3 Hoffenheim 23 14 4 5 49 30 19 46
4 Stuttgart 23 13 4 6 44 32 12 43
5 RB Leipzig 23 12 5 6 44 32 12 41
6 Leverkusen 22 12 3 7 43 28 15 39
7 Freiburg 23 9 6 8 34 37 -3 33
8 Ein Frankfurt 23 8 7 8 46 49 -3 31
9 Union Berlin 23 7 7 9 29 37 -8 28
10 Augsburg 23 8 4 11 28 41 -13 28
11 Hamburg 22 6 8 8 25 32 -7 26
12 FC Koln 23 6 6 11 33 39 -6 24
13 Mainz 23 5 7 11 26 38 -12 22
14 M'gladbach 23 5 7 11 26 39 -13 22
15 Wolfsburg 23 5 5 13 33 49 -16 20
16 St Pauli 23 5 5 13 22 40 -18 20
17 Werder Bremen 23 4 7 12 23 44 -21 19
18 Heidenheim 23 3 5 15 22 51 -29 14

Recent Trends

Werder Bremen L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 2)

Heidenheim D L L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Werder Bremen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.18
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.39
# Clean Sheets: 0

Heidenheim

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.01
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Werder Bremen are favoured strongly here, with a 72.0% probability of a home win against bottom‑placed Heidenheim, who have just a 13.0% chance, while the draw sits at 15.0%. The model points to an over 2.5 prediction on goals (53.0% probability), suggesting an open game despite both sides’ struggles. In the table, Bremen are 17th on 19 points, five clear of 18th‑placed Heidenheim on 14, making this a huge relegation six‑pointer.

Match Analysis

Werder come into this clash on a three‑match losing streak (1-2 at St Pauli, 0-3 vs Bayern, 0-1 at Freiburg). The results are poor, but the underlying performances are slightly better than the scorelines: they’ve out‑shot Freiburg and St Pauli and averaged 1.182 expected goals across their last five games, compared to only 0.8 actually scored. The big worry is at the back: 2.6 goals conceded per game over the last five, without a single clean sheet, despite allowing only 1.394 expected goals against on average. Heidenheim are also winless in their last three, but have shown more punch in attack. They drew 3-3 with Stuttgart and then lost narrowly to Augsburg (0-1) and Hamburg (0-2), often creating more shots than their opponents. Over the last five, they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with a solid 1.572 expected goals for – better attacking output than Bremen on paper – but they also give up 2.012 expected goals against and, like Werder, have no clean sheets in that span. Both sides combine defensive fragility with some attacking intent, which suits the prediction of a home win in a fairly open contest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Werder Bremen
Goals in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%, hinting that this could tilt into a higher‑scoring relegation battle. Two of Werder’s last three games finished with exactly three goals (1-2 vs St Pauli, 0-3 vs Bayern), while one stayed under (0-1 at Freiburg). Heidenheim have had one clear over (3-3 vs Stuttgart) and two unders (0-1 vs Augsburg, 0-2 vs Hamburg), but their averages of 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded, plus 1.572 xG for and 2.012 xG against, point towards chances at both ends.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Corners in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.57, suggesting a moderate corners prediction rather than an extreme count. Bremen’s recent games produced 6, 6, and 12 corners (they themselves took 5, 2, and 8), showing they can rack up set‑pieces when they are on the front foot. Heidenheim’s last three had 7, 9, and 18 corners, with them consistently generating plenty (3, 5, and 10), which fits an open, attack‑minded style that supports the predicted corners value being close to 10.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Shots in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game sit at 26.37 total, a solid figure that matches both teams’ recent patterns. Werder have attempted 13, 14, and 17 shots in their last three, often out‑shooting opponents despite losing, while Heidenheim have posted 10, 16, and 20, also getting efforts away regularly. This shots prediction lines up well with their xG numbers: both sides create enough chances to keep the game busy in and around the box, even if finishing and defending have been inconsistent.

Final Prediction

Werder Bremen have the edge thanks to home advantage, slightly stronger defensive underlying numbers, and a higher win probability against the league’s bottom side. Heidenheim’s attacking xG suggests they won’t go quietly, but their leaky back line is a major concern. A key factor to watch will be which team handles transitions better; with both defences vulnerable, the side that stays more compact without the ball is likely to decide this relegation showdown.

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