Bundesliga 2025-2026: Werder Bremen vs Mainz Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Werder Bremen

Home Team
52%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
24%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 26.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 25 21 3 1 92 24 68 66
2 Dortmund 25 16 7 2 53 26 27 55
3 Hoffenheim 25 15 4 6 53 33 20 49
4 Stuttgart 25 14 5 6 50 34 16 47
5 RB Leipzig 25 14 5 6 48 34 14 47
6 Leverkusen 25 13 5 7 48 32 16 44
7 Ein Frankfurt 25 9 8 8 48 49 -1 35
8 Freiburg 25 9 7 9 37 42 -5 34
9 Augsburg 25 9 4 12 31 43 -12 31
10 Hamburg 25 7 8 10 28 36 -8 29
11 Union Berlin 25 7 7 11 30 42 -12 28
12 M'gladbach 25 6 7 12 28 43 -15 25
13 Werder Bremen 25 6 7 12 29 45 -16 25
14 FC Koln 25 6 6 13 34 43 -9 24
15 Mainz 25 5 9 11 29 41 -12 24
16 St Pauli 25 6 6 13 23 40 -17 24
17 Wolfsburg 25 5 5 15 34 55 -21 20
18 Heidenheim 25 3 5 17 24 57 -33 14

Recent Trends

Werder Bremen W W L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)

Mainz D D D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Werder Bremen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.76
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.33
# Clean Sheets: 1

Mainz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.74
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.38
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Werder Bremen are slight favourites at home, with a 52.0% probability of taking all three points against a Mainz side given a 24.0% chance of victory and a 24.0% chance of a draw. The model points to a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite both teams often being involved in open contests. In the table, Bremen sit 13th on 25 points, just one place and one point above 15th‑placed Mainz, underlining how much this is a direct battle in the lower half.

Match Analysis

Bremen come in with two wins from their last three, beating Heidenheim 2-0 at home and dismantling Union Berlin 4-1 away, before slipping to a 2-1 defeat at St Pauli. Those matches show a side creating plenty: 15, 17 and 13 shots respectively, and producing one clean sheet in that run. Over the last five games they have averaged 1.2 goals scored but 1.8 conceded, with their expected goals for (1.756) higher than their actual returns, suggesting there might be more goals in this team than the recent raw numbers show. Defensively, conceding 1.326 xG on average hints at a back line that is not completely porous, even if results have been mixed. Mainz arrive on a sequence of three straight draws – 2-2 at home to Stuttgart, followed by 1-1 stalemates away at Leverkusen and at home to Hamburg. They have competed well against strong opponents, taking 18 shots versus Stuttgart and 17 against Hamburg, but they have not been able to turn that pressure into wins. Over their last five games, Mainz also average 1.2 goals scored, but they are shipping 2.0 per match, with a worrying 2.382 expected goals conceded. That defensive fragility could be decisive away from home, even if their attacking xG of 1.738 shows they are capable of creating chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Werder Bremen
Goals in last 5 matches
Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans narrowly towards an under 2.5 outcome, with a 50.0% probability attached to a low‑scoring game. Bremen’s last three matches have produced totals of 5, 2 and 3 goals – two of them over 2.5 – while all three of Mainz’s have finished under or right on the margin (4, 2 and 2 goals, with only the Stuttgart draw going over). With both sides averaging 1.2 goals scored recently but Mainz conceding 2.0 and carrying a high defensive xG against, the under 2.5 call is tight; the over 2.5 prediction is not favoured, but a single moment either way could tip it.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Corners in last 5 matches
Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.15 total corners, a moderate figure that suggests sustained but not frantic attacking. Bremen’s last three games saw combined corner counts of 4, 5 and 6, reflecting a team that creates chances but not an avalanche of set‑play situations. Mainz’s matches have been slightly more corner‑heavy (11, 8 and 9), with 7 corners won against Hamburg and 5 versus Stuttgart, indicating a side that pushes on from wide areas. Put together, these patterns support the expected corners figure hovering just below double digits.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Shots in last 5 matches
Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.47, in line with what both clubs have been posting recently. Bremen’s shot counts (15, 17 and 13) show a consistent willingness to pull the trigger, while Mainz have registered 18, 8 and 17 attempts in their last three, with only the Leverkusen game dipping. This shots prediction also matches the xG profiles: Bremen at 1.756 xG and Mainz at 1.738 xG over their last five games are regularly getting into shooting positions, even if finishing and defending have not always matched that output.

Final Prediction

Bremen’s slight edge at home comes from a better recent results trend and a more solid xG against figure compared with Mainz’s leaky defence. Mainz’s attacking numbers mean they will be dangerous, but their high expected goals conceded leaves them vulnerable, especially away. The key factor to watch will be how well Mainz’s back line copes with Bremen’s volume of shots; if the hosts maintain that pressure, the predicted home win looks justified.

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