Bundesliga 2025-2026: Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Werder Bremen

Home Team
30%
VS

RB Leipzig

Away Team
45%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 27 22 4 1 97 25 72 70
2 Dortmund 27 18 7 2 58 28 30 61
3 Stuttgart 27 16 5 6 56 36 20 53
4 RB Leipzig 27 15 5 7 53 35 18 50
5 Hoffenheim 27 15 5 7 54 39 15 50
6 Leverkusen 27 13 7 7 52 36 16 46
7 Ein Frankfurt 27 10 8 9 50 51 -1 38
8 Freiburg 27 10 7 10 39 44 -5 37
9 Union Berlin 27 8 7 12 31 46 -15 31
10 Augsburg 27 9 4 14 33 50 -17 31
11 Mainz 27 7 9 11 33 42 -9 30
12 Hamburg 27 7 9 11 31 40 -9 30
13 M'gladbach 27 7 8 12 33 46 -13 29
14 Werder Bremen 27 7 7 13 30 47 -17 28
15 FC Koln 27 6 8 13 38 47 -9 26
16 St Pauli 27 6 6 15 24 44 -20 24
17 Wolfsburg 27 5 6 16 35 57 -22 21
18 Heidenheim 27 3 6 18 27 61 -34 15

Recent Trends

Werder Bremen W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 2)

RB Leipzig W L W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Werder Bremen

xG (avg) 1.51
xGA (avg) 1.50
Clean Sheets 2

RB Leipzig

xG (avg) 2.12
xGA (avg) 1.24
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

RB Leipzig are slight but clear favourites here, with a 45.0% chance of taking all three points away to a Werder Bremen side given a 30.0% shot at victory (draw: 25.0%). Leipzig come into this sitting 4th on 50 points and firmly in the Champions League race, while Werder are 14th on 28 points and still looking nervously over their shoulder at the relegation scrap. The model leans towards goals at the Weserstadion, with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% and both teams scoring also rated at 59.0%.

Match Analysis

Werder’s recent form has been volatile but not hopeless: a gritty 1-0 win at Wolfsburg and a 4-1 demolition of Union Berlin away, split by a flat 0-2 home defeat to Mainz. That inconsistency mirrors their broader numbers: only 0.6 goals scored on average in their last five, but an xG of 1.514 suggests they’re creating more than they’re actually putting away. Defensively they concede 1.6 per game, yet their xG against is a more respectable 1.496, helped by two clean sheets in that spell – signs of a team that can be compact, but switches off too often. Leipzig arrive with more authority. A 5-0 home hammering of Hoffenheim and a 2-1 win over Augsburg bookend a narrow 0-1 loss at Stuttgart, underlining both their attacking punch and occasional vulnerability away from home. Over the last five, they average 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed by a strong 2.122 xG for and 1.238 xG against. Even when the scoreline is tight, they tend to generate chances consistently, and they’ve kept one clean sheet in that period, which aligns with a side generally in control of games.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Werder Bremen
Goals in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% feels justified here. Two of Werder Bremen’s last three matches sailed over the 2.5 line (4-1 vs Union, 0-2 vs Mainz just under, 1-0 vs Wolfsburg under), while two of Leipzig’s last three also featured at least three goals (5-0 vs Hoffenheim, 2-1 vs Augsburg, only the 0-1 at Stuttgart going under 2.5). With Leipzig’s attack generating 2.122 xG per game and Werder’s defence conceding 1.6 on average, plus Bremen’s own xG of 1.514, the ingredients are there for an open game with chances at both ends.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Corners in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 9.64, pointing towards a match in the typical Bundesliga range rather than an extreme outlier. Werder’s last three outings produced 12, 13 and 4 corners respectively (they earned 4, 9 and 3 themselves), which shows their matches can swing between controlled and frantic depending on game state. Leipzig’s last three produced 4, 11 and 14 corners (with Leipzig taking 1, 6 and 6), suggesting that when they press high and dominate territory, the corners prediction of around 10 looks realistic for two sides capable of sustained attacking phases.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Shots in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.25, which mirrors what both teams have been involved in recently. Werder’s last three games saw combined shot counts of 19, 27 and 24, while Leipzig’s featured 22, 22 and 33 efforts, underlining the likelihood of a busy evening for both goalkeepers. Given Leipzig’s strong attacking xG numbers and Werder’s tendency to concede attempts but still create enough themselves, this shots prediction fits with the idea of a game tilted in Leipzig’s favour but far from one-sided.

Final Prediction

Leipzig’s edge comes from their more reliable attack, better recent defensive record, and their position in the table as a genuine top-four contender, all backed by stronger xG numbers at both ends of the pitch. Werder’s home crowd and their underlying chance creation keep them dangerous, but their inconsistency is hard to ignore. A key factor to watch will be how often Leipzig can get into shooting positions around the Bremen box – if they hit their usual volume, the visitors are well-placed to justify their status as favourites.

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