Bundesliga 2025-2026: Wolfsburg vs Augsburg Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Wolfsburg

Home Team
63%
VS

Augsburg

Away Team
17%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 27.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 22 18 3 1 82 19 63 57
2 Dortmund 22 15 6 1 47 20 27 51
3 Hoffenheim 22 14 3 5 47 28 19 45
4 Stuttgart 22 13 3 6 41 29 12 42
5 RB Leipzig 22 12 4 6 42 30 12 40
6 Leverkusen 21 12 3 6 43 27 16 39
7 Ein Frankfurt 22 8 7 7 44 46 -2 31
8 Freiburg 22 8 6 8 32 36 -4 30
9 Hamburg 21 6 7 8 24 31 -7 25
10 Union Berlin 22 6 7 9 28 37 -9 25
11 Augsburg 22 7 4 11 25 39 -14 25
12 FC Koln 22 6 5 11 31 37 -6 23
13 M'gladbach 22 5 7 10 25 37 -12 22
14 Mainz 22 5 6 11 25 37 -12 21
15 Wolfsburg 22 5 5 12 31 46 -15 20
16 Werder Bremen 22 4 7 11 22 42 -20 19
17 St Pauli 22 4 5 13 20 39 -19 17
18 Heidenheim 22 3 4 15 19 48 -29 13

Recent Trends

Wolfsburg D L L L D

  • Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs FC Koln (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)

Augsburg W L W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolfsburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.43
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.72
# Clean Sheets: 0

Augsburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.10
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.44
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Wolfsburg are favored to take all three points at home, with a 63.0% probability of a home win against Augsburg’s 17.0% chance and a 19.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards an attacking game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 56.0% probability. In the current Bundesliga table, Augsburg sit 11th on 25 points, while Wolfsburg are 15th with 20 points and just one place above the relegation play-off zone.

Match Analysis

Wolfsburg’s last three matches show slight improvement in attack but fragile defending. They drew 2-2 away at RB Leipzig after a battling display, but that followed a 1-2 home defeat to Dortmund and a 0-1 loss at FC Köln. Across those games they’ve scored three and conceded five, and the underlying numbers back the pattern: 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average in their last five, with xG around 1.43 for and 1.72 against, plus zero clean sheets. They are creating enough to score, but always look likely to give opponents chances. Augsburg’s recent form is more up-and-down. They’ve won two of their last three – 1-0 at home to Heidenheim and 2-1 at home to St Pauli – but lost 0-2 away at Mainz in between. That gives them three goals scored and three conceded across those matches. Over the last five games, though, the deeper stats are worrying: only 0.4 goals scored per match on average, while conceding 2.2, with xG of 1.10 for and a high 2.44 against, plus just one clean sheet. Augsburg are often second-best in chance quality, which is a dangerous combination going away to a Wolfsburg side that tends to create more than it finishes.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wolfsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model sides with an over 2.5 prediction, with a 56.0% probability of at least three goals. Two of Wolfsburg’s last three matches (2-2 vs Leipzig, 1-2 vs Dortmund) went over 2.5, with only the 0-1 at Köln staying under. Augsburg, by contrast, have had two of their last three matches under 2.5 (1-0 vs Heidenheim, 0-2 at Mainz) and one over (2-1 vs St Pauli). However, Wolfsburg’s average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, plus both teams’ xG profiles, support the idea that chances – and likely goals – will be there.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Wolfsburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.16 total corners, which fits the recent data. Wolfsburg’s last three produced 8, 12 and 7 total corners respectively, while Augsburg’s delivered 9, 10 and 10. With both sides allowing opponents to take plenty of shots and spending time defending their own box, a figure around ten predicted corners is consistent with their styles, where sustained attacks and blocked efforts frequently lead to set pieces.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wolfsburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this contest is 27.69 in total, suggesting a fairly open game. Wolfsburg’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 30 (vs Leipzig), 33 (vs Dortmund) and 29 (vs Köln), while Augsburg’s have recorded 28 (vs Heidenheim), 24 (vs Mainz) and 29 (vs St Pauli). These numbers align well with a shots prediction around the high 20s and tie in with the xG data: both teams tend to allow opponents efforts on goal, which should push up the expected shots on the day.

Final Prediction

Wolfsburg’s edge comes from stronger recent attacking output and home advantage, combined with Augsburg’s worrying defensive xG against (2.442 on average). If Wolfsburg maintain their current chance creation, Augsburg’s leaky underlying numbers could be exposed. A key factor to watch will be how Augsburg cope with sustained Wolfsburg pressure, both in open play and around their own penalty area.

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