Bundesliga 2025-2026: Wolfsburg vs Dortmund Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Wolfsburg

Home Team
4%
VS

Dortmund

Away Team
91%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 20 16 3 1 74 18 56 51
2 Dortmund 20 13 6 1 41 19 22 45
3 Hoffenheim 20 13 3 4 43 23 20 42
4 Stuttgart 20 12 3 5 37 26 11 39
5 RB Leipzig 20 11 3 6 38 27 11 36
6 Leverkusen 19 11 2 6 38 26 12 35
7 Freiburg 20 7 6 7 31 33 -2 27
8 Ein Frankfurt 20 7 6 7 40 45 -5 27
9 Union Berlin 20 6 6 8 25 33 -8 24
10 FC Koln 20 6 5 9 29 32 -3 23
11 Augsburg 20 6 4 10 24 37 -13 22
12 M'gladbach 20 5 6 9 24 33 -9 21
13 Hamburg 19 4 7 8 19 29 -10 19
14 Wolfsburg 20 5 4 11 28 42 -14 19
15 Werder Bremen 20 4 7 9 22 38 -16 19
16 Mainz 20 4 6 10 23 33 -10 18
17 St Pauli 20 3 5 12 18 34 -16 14
18 Heidenheim 20 3 4 13 19 45 -26 13

Recent Trends

Wolfsburg L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs FC Koln (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 8)

Dortmund W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolfsburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.44
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.69
# Clean Sheets: 0

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.05
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund are strong favourites here, with a 91.0% probability of taking all three points against a struggling Wolfsburg side that sits 14th, while Dortmund are pushing Bayern at the top in 2nd place. The game is also expected to be relatively open, with a 54.0% chance of over 2.5 goals and a predicted “goal” outcome, suggesting both teams have a decent chance to score.

Match Analysis

Wolfsburg come into this on a poor run: back-to-back away defeats to FC Koln (0–1) and Mainz (1–3), followed by a 1–1 home draw with bottom-side Heidenheim. Their last five matches show an attacking output of 2.0 goals scored per game, but they also concede 2.0 on average and have failed to keep a single clean sheet in that stretch. The expected goals data backs this up: they create 1.436 xG per match while allowing 1.694 xG, underlining a defence that gives opponents too many good chances. Dortmund, by contrast, arrive in excellent form with three straight wins: 3–2 over Heidenheim, a convincing 3–0 away at Union Berlin, and another 3–2 home victory against St Pauli. Over their last five, they also average 2.0 goals scored per game but are noticeably tighter at the back, conceding just 1.2 on average and recording two clean sheets. Their expected goals figures are strong on both sides of the ball: 1.726 xG created and only 1.052 xG conceded per match, showing a team that consistently outplays opponents.

Final Prediction

Dortmund’s combination of recent results, superior defensive record, and better underlying numbers gives them a clear edge over an insecure Wolfsburg side. The key factor to watch will be whether Wolfsburg’s leaky back line can cope with Dortmund’s steady 2-goals-a-game attack over the last five matches.

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