Bundesliga 2025-2026: Wolfsburg vs Hamburg Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Wolfsburg

Home Team
38%
VS

Hamburg

Away Team
37%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 27.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 24 20 3 1 88 23 65 63
2 Dortmund 24 15 7 2 51 25 26 52
3 Hoffenheim 24 14 4 6 49 31 18 46
4 Stuttgart 24 14 4 6 48 32 16 46
5 RB Leipzig 24 13 5 6 46 33 13 44
6 Leverkusen 24 13 4 7 45 29 16 43
7 Ein Frankfurt 24 9 7 8 48 49 -1 34
8 Freiburg 24 9 6 9 34 39 -5 33
9 Augsburg 24 9 4 11 30 41 -11 31
10 Union Berlin 24 7 7 10 29 38 -9 28
11 Hamburg 24 6 8 10 26 35 -9 26
12 M'gladbach 24 6 7 11 27 39 -12 25
13 FC Koln 24 6 6 12 33 41 -8 24
14 Mainz 24 5 8 11 27 39 -12 23
15 St Pauli 24 6 5 13 23 40 -17 23
16 Werder Bremen 24 5 7 12 25 44 -19 22
17 Wolfsburg 24 5 5 14 33 53 -20 20
18 Heidenheim 24 3 5 16 22 53 -31 14

Recent Trends

Wolfsburg L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs FC Koln (Goals: 0 - 1)

Hamburg L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolfsburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.68
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.63
# Clean Sheets: 0

Hamburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.99
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.71
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Wolfsburg are marginally favoured to edge this relegation six-pointer, with a home win given a 38.0% chance against Hamburg’s 37.0% and a 24.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a Wolfsburg victory despite their 17th place standing (20 points), against a Hamburg side sitting 11th (26 points). Goals are expected, with an over 2.5 prediction at 61.0% and both teams favoured to score (58.0% “goal” probability).

Match Analysis

Wolfsburg come into this under real pressure, sitting in the automatic relegation zone and without a win in their last three. A 0–4 hammering at Stuttgart underlined their defensive fragility, and they followed that with a 2–3 home defeat to Augsburg in another chaotic game at the back. The 2–2 draw away to RB Leipzig, however, showed they can still trade blows with stronger opponents, creating chances and scoring twice on the road, even if they continue to give up a high volume of shots and territory. Hamburg’s recent run has been steadier but hardly inspiring: a tight 0–1 home loss to Leverkusen, a 1–2 defeat to RB Leipzig, and a 1–1 draw at Mainz. They’ve been competitive in all three, keeping games close but struggling to turn possession into goals. The advanced numbers reflect that: Hamburg have averaged just 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded over their last five, with an xG for of 0.992 and xG against of 1.708, suggesting they tend to allow better chances than they create. Wolfsburg’s recent averages are more open: 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded, with xG for at 1.676 and xG against at 1.626, pointing to a side that plays in higher-event matches but lacks control and clean sheets (zero in the last five).

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wolfsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 61.0% fits both teams’ recent patterns. Two of Wolfsburg’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (0–4, 2–3, 2–2), and they are averaging 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded in their last five – a recipe for goal-heavy contests. Hamburg, by contrast, have seen under 2.5 in two of their last three (0–1, 1–2, 1–1), but their xG against of 1.708 hints at opponents regularly creating enough to push games towards three or more goals if finishing improves.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Wolfsburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.11 total corners, which matches the recent numbers. Wolfsburg’s last three produced corner counts of 3–7, 4–10 and 2–6, consistently seeing opponents rack up high totals. Hamburg’s games showed 2–7, 4–9 and 2–7 in corners, again with rivals forcing more set-piece situations. With both sides likely to be direct and urgent given their league positions, the predicted corners total around 10 looks realistic for another end-to-end encounter, even if neither team dominates.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wolfsburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 27.5, which aligns neatly with what these teams have been producing. Wolfsburg’s last three show 10, 10 and 10 attempts of their own, while allowing 24, 15 and 20 – consistently high shot volumes overall. Hamburg have taken 10, 7 and 14 shots while conceding 14, 13 and 17, again pointing to matches in the mid-to-high 20s for combined efforts. That shots prediction fits the xG profiles: Wolfsburg generating around 1.676 xG and conceding 1.626, Hamburg close to 1.0 for and 1.708 against, indicating enough chances for a busy night for both goalkeepers.

Final Prediction

Wolfsburg are backed to nick this primarily because their attack looks more potent in recent weeks, both in raw goals and xG, and because home advantage tilts a very even matchup their way. Hamburg’s more cautious, lower-scoring profile could keep it tight, but their tendency to concede good chances is a concern. The key factor to watch will be Wolfsburg’s ability to turn their higher attacking output into a rare clean, clinical performance in a match that could define their survival hopes.

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