La Liga 2025-2026: Alaves vs Ath Bilbao Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Alaves

Home Team
43%
VS

Ath Bilbao

Away Team
32%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 24.2
Expected Spread: +0.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 33 28 1 4 87 30 57 85
2 Real Madrid 33 23 5 5 68 31 37 74
3 Villarreal 33 20 5 8 59 38 21 65
4 Ath Madrid 33 18 6 9 56 37 19 60
5 Betis 33 12 14 7 49 41 8 50
6 Getafe 33 13 5 15 28 34 -6 44
7 Celta 33 11 11 11 45 43 2 44
8 Sociedad 33 11 10 12 52 52 0 43
9 Osasuna 33 11 9 13 39 40 -1 42
10 Betis 33 12 5 16 36 48 -12 41
11 Vallecano 33 9 12 12 33 41 -8 39
12 Valencia 33 10 9 14 37 48 -11 39
13 Espanol 33 10 9 14 37 49 -12 39
14 Elche 33 9 11 13 44 50 -6 38
15 Girona 33 9 11 13 36 50 -14 38
16 Alaves 33 9 9 15 38 49 -11 36
17 Mallorca 33 9 8 16 41 51 -10 35
18 Sevilla 33 9 7 17 40 55 -15 34
19 Levante 33 8 9 16 37 50 -13 33
20 Oviedo 33 6 10 17 26 51 -25 28

Recent Trends

Alaves W L D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 4 - 3)

Ath Bilbao L W L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

xG (avg) 1.70
xGA (avg) 1.31
Clean Sheets 0

Ath Bilbao

xG (avg) 1.02
xGA (avg) 1.77
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Alavés are slight favourites here, with a 43.0% chance of victory against Athletic Bilbao’s 32.0%, and the expected goal spread tilting narrowly towards the home side. The model points to a home win and an open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 52.0% probability. In the table, Alavés sit 16th on 36 points and still glancing over their shoulder at the relegation zone, while Athletic Bilbao are not listed in this snapshot but clearly come in as the side with higher seasonal ambitions.

Match Analysis

Alavés arrive in decent form and with momentum. They’ve taken four points from tricky trips to Real Madrid (2-1 loss) and Real Sociedad (3-3 draw) plus a vital 2-1 home win over Mallorca. Those three matches were all high-event: 3, 3 and 6 total goals respectively, with Alavés scoring six and conceding six. Their recent advanced numbers back the eye test: 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average in the last five, with an xG of 1.702 for and 1.31 against, suggesting they are creating slightly more than they’re converting and defending a bit better than the raw goals-against column shows. The glaring issue is zero clean sheets in that period. Athletic Bilbao’s recent run is more erratic. They edged Osasuna 1-0 at home but lost tightly to Villarreal (1-2) and Atlético Madrid (2-3). Across those three, they’ve scored four and conceded five, with two of the games decided by a single goal and all three being tactically tight rather than end-to-end chaos. Over their last five, they average 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded, with an xG of 1.02 for and 1.77 against, underlining a side that is allowing better chances than it is creating. That defensive fragility, especially away, is a key factor in tilting the prediction slightly towards Alavés.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 52.0%, and the recent numbers lean that way. All 3 of Alavés’ last matches went over 2.5 goals (3, 3 and 6 total goals), reflecting their 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, backed by healthy attacking xG of 1.702. For Athletic, 2 of their last 3 have gone over 2.5 (3-2 and 2-1 defeats) with only the 1-0 win against Osasuna landing under 2.5, and their 2.0 goals conceded on average plus 1.77 xG against point to another game where defences can be breached.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderately busy game, with 9.46 predicted corners overall. Alavés have seen 13, 15 and 14 total corners in their last three (9-4, 6-9, 5-9), showing that their games open up in wide areas. Athletic’s recent matches have featured 7, 9 and 18 corners (4-3, 5-4, 15-3), with especially high numbers when they chase the game at home. Both sides’ tendency to attack via the flanks and swing in crosses supports the idea of around 9–10 predicted corners on the night.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction stands at 24.2 expected shots combined, suggesting a match with steady but not frantic attacking output. Alavés’ last three produced 19, 24 and 24 total attempts (15-4, 19-24, 12-12), underlining a team comfortable trading chances. Athletic’s games have seen 18, 15 and 30 shots (12-6, 7-8, 18-12), tying in closely with their xG profile of just over 1.0 for and 1.77 against. With both sides capable of generating efforts from wide deliveries, those expected shots look well aligned with the recent trends.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Alaves wins by X goals. Negative = Ath Bilbao wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Alaves vs Ath Bilbao with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Alaves vs Ath Bilbao
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.35 in favour of Alavés, meaning the home side are projected to edge it by roughly a third of a goal. In their last three, Alavés have a neutral goal difference (6 scored, 6 conceded), but have done that against strong opposition and with better underlying xG figures than their opponents. Athletic, by contrast, have a -1 goal difference over their last three (4 scored, 5 conceded) and a five‑match average of 2.0 conceded per game. Matched with a 43.0% home win probability versus 32.0% away, the numbers back Alavés to nick a tight contest.

Final Prediction

Alavés’ home advantage, stronger recent xG profile and Athletic’s shaky defensive metrics combine to give the hosts a slight but meaningful edge. Expect a game decided in both boxes, where Alavés’ ability to create consistent chances against an Athletic back line conceding 1.77 xG per match could prove the decisive factor. The key subplot to watch will be whether Athletic can tighten up defensively enough to upset both the expected spread and the home win prediction.

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