La Liga 2025-2026: Alaves vs Barcelona Prediction - 13 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Alaves

Home Team
19%
VS

Barcelona

Away Team
63%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.8
Expected Spread: -1.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 35 30 1 4 91 31 60 91
2 Real Madrid 35 24 5 6 70 33 37 77
3 Villarreal 35 21 6 8 65 40 25 69
4 Ath Madrid 35 19 6 10 58 38 20 63
5 Betis 35 13 15 7 54 43 11 54
6 Celta 35 13 11 11 49 44 5 50
7 Getafe 35 13 6 16 28 36 -8 45
8 Sociedad 35 11 11 13 54 55 -1 44
9 Betis 35 13 5 17 40 51 -11 44
10 Vallecano 35 10 13 12 36 42 -6 43
11 Osasuna 35 11 9 15 42 45 -3 42
12 Valencia 35 11 9 15 38 50 -12 42
13 Sevilla 35 11 7 17 43 56 -13 40
14 Elche 35 9 12 14 46 54 -8 39
15 Mallorca 35 10 9 16 43 52 -9 39
16 Espanol 35 10 9 16 38 53 -15 39
17 Girona 35 9 12 14 37 52 -15 39
18 Alaves 35 9 10 16 41 54 -13 37
19 Levante 35 9 9 17 41 57 -16 36
20 Oviedo 35 6 11 18 26 54 -28 29

Recent Trends

Alaves D L W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)

Barcelona W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 4 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

xG (avg) 1.22
xGA (avg) 1.13
Clean Sheets 0

Barcelona

xG (avg) 1.91
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Barcelona are strong favourites here, with a 63.0% chance of victory and an expected goal spread of -1.1 in their favour, as the league leaders (1st, 91 points) visit a struggling Alaves side sitting 18th on 37 points and fighting relegation. The over 2.5 prediction leans towards goals, with a 57.0% probability that the game produces at least three. A draw is given an 18.0% chance, while Alaves have just a 19.0% probability of a home upset.

Match Analysis

Alaves come into this one with mixed form but plenty of urgency. Their last three outings show a 2-1 home win over Mallorca, a 4-2 home defeat to Athletic Bilbao and a 1-1 draw away at Elche. That run underlines their volatility: they’ve scored in all three games (five goals total) but conceded six, and they haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last five. Despite that, their recent underlying numbers are more solid than the raw scores suggest, with 1.222 expected goals for and only 1.132 expected goals against on average in the last five matches. Barcelona, meanwhile, are powering towards the finish line like champions. Three straight wins – 2-0 at home to Real Madrid, 2-1 away to Osasuna and 2-0 away to Getafe – underline their control at both ends of the pitch. They’ve scored 6 and conceded just 1 in those three games, with three clean sheets in their last five. The advanced metrics back it up: Barça are averaging 1.914 xG for and 1.352 xG against over their last five, showing a steady stream of chances created and a defence that, while occasionally giving up opportunities, generally manages them well.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
Barcelona
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 57.0%, and the recent scorelines support that call. Two of Alaves’ last three games went over 2.5 goals (2-4 vs Athletic, 2-1 vs Mallorca), with only the 1-1 at Elche staying under. Barcelona have been tighter, with just one of their last three – the 2-1 win at Osasuna – going over 2.5, while the two 2-0 wins stayed under. Still, Alaves’ average of 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded in their last five, paired with Barça’s 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, and both sides’ xG figures, suggest enough attacking threat on show to justify backing goals rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches
Barcelona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a reasonably active game on the flanks, with 9.62 predicted corners in total. Alaves’ recent matches have produced 12 corners at Elche (3-9), 11 against Athletic (4-7) and 13 versus Mallorca (9-4), showing they can both create and concede plenty when games open up. Barcelona’s last three have seen 12 corners against Real Madrid (4-8), 10 at Osasuna (7-3) and 9 at Getafe (3-6), consistent with a dominant, attacking side that forces opponents deep. That blend of Barça’s territorial play and Alaves’ need to push for points backs the idea of around ten predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches
Barcelona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 24.78 expected shots in the match, the shots prediction reflects two sides who do not shy away from goal. Alaves have generated 12, 7 and 15 shots in their last three (34 total), while allowing 16, 9 and 4 (29 conceded), which fits with their open, high-risk approach in recent weeks. Barcelona have taken 10, 13 and 13 shots in their last three (36 total), conceding 8, 9 and 4 (21 faced), and their higher xG of 1.914 per game suggests they tend to create high-quality opportunities as well as volume. That balance points towards the expected shots range being met.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Alaves wins by X goals. Negative = Barcelona wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Alaves vs Barcelona with expected spread of -1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Alaves vs Barcelona
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of -1.1 in favour of Barcelona reflects both their league status and recent form. Over their last three games, Barça are +5 on goal difference (6 scored, 1 conceded), while Alaves sit at -1 (5 scored, 6 conceded). With Barcelona’s superior xG and defensive record, the expected spread is consistent with the 63.0% away-win probability and suggests the visitors are more likely to win by a clear margin than edge a tight one.

Final Prediction

Barcelona’s edge comes from their blend of control, defensive solidity and sustained attacking output, backed up by both results and the underlying numbers. Alaves’ recent improvement in attack and the desperation of a relegation fight could make this competitive, but their inability to keep clean sheets is a major concern against the league leaders. The key factor to watch will be how long Alaves can resist Barcelona’s pressure; if the visitors score first, the game may quickly tilt towards the predicted away win and an open, goal-heavy contest.

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