La Liga 2025-2026: Alaves vs Elche Prediction - 5 Oct 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Alaves

Home Team
43%
VS

Elche

Away Team
29%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 40%
Under 2.5: 60%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 7 6 1 0 21 5 16 19
2 Real Madrid 7 6 0 1 16 8 8 18
3 Villarreal 7 5 1 1 13 5 8 16
4 Elche 7 3 4 0 10 6 4 13
5 Ath Madrid 7 3 3 1 14 9 5 12
6 Betis 7 3 3 1 11 7 4 12
7 Espanol 7 3 3 1 10 9 1 12
8 Getafe 7 3 2 2 8 9 -1 11
9 Sevilla 7 3 1 3 11 10 1 10
10 Ath Bilbao 7 3 1 3 7 8 -1 10
11 Alaves 7 2 2 3 6 7 -1 8
12 Valencia 7 2 2 3 9 12 -3 8
13 Osasuna 7 2 1 4 5 7 -2 7
14 Oviedo 7 2 0 5 4 12 -8 6
15 Levante 7 1 2 4 11 14 -3 5
16 Vallecano 7 1 2 4 7 10 -3 5
17 Celta 7 0 5 2 6 9 -3 5
18 Sociedad 7 1 2 4 7 11 -4 5
19 Mallorca 7 1 2 4 6 11 -5 5
20 Girona 7 0 3 4 3 16 -13 3

Recent Trends

Alaves L D L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)

Elche W D W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

xG (avg) 1.16
xGA (avg) 0.86
Clean Sheets 1

Elche

xG (avg) 0.71
xGA (avg) 1.07
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Alaves and Elche is tipped in favor of the home side, with a 43.0% probability of Alaves securing victory. The match is projected to feature under 2.5 goals, with a 40.0% chance of exceeding that mark. In terms of league standings, Elche currently sits at a commendable 4th place with 13 points, while Alaves is positioned 11th with 8 points.

Match Analysis

Alaves enters this fixture on the back of a less-than-ideal run, having failed to secure a win in their last three matches. They suffered defeats to Mallorca and Sevilla and managed a draw against Getafe. Despite these setbacks, Alaves has managed to maintain an average of 1.33 goals scored and conceded per game over their last five outings. Their expected goals statistics suggest they have the potential to score slightly more than they have been, while their defense, on paper, appears more robust than recent results indicate. Elche, on the other hand, has been riding a wave of positive results, remaining unbeaten in their last three games, including victories against Celta and Oviedo, and a draw against Osasuna. Their defensive solidity is highlighted by two clean sheets in recent matches. However, their expected goals tally suggests they might have been slightly fortunate in terms of goal-scoring outcomes, given their lower expected goals figure.

Final Prediction

Alaves holds an edge in this encounter, largely due to playing on home turf and the statistical probability tipping in their favor. The key to watch in this game will be whether Alaves can capitalize on their expected goals potential and tighten their defense to convert this into a much-needed victory. Additionally, Elche's ability to continue their defensive resilience could be pivotal in determining the outcome.

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