La Liga 2025-2026: Alaves vs Getafe Prediction - 8 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Alaves

Home Team
56%
VS

Getafe

Away Team
21%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 22 18 1 3 60 23 37 55
2 Real Madrid 22 17 3 2 47 18 29 54
3 Ath Madrid 22 13 6 3 38 17 21 45
4 Villarreal 21 13 3 5 39 23 16 42
5 Betis 22 9 8 5 36 28 8 35
6 Espanol 22 10 4 8 26 27 -1 34
7 Celta 22 8 9 5 29 23 6 33
8 Sociedad 22 7 7 8 30 30 0 28
9 Osasuna 22 7 5 10 26 27 -1 26
10 Alaves 22 7 4 11 20 27 -7 25
11 Betis 22 7 4 11 21 31 -10 25
12 Girona 22 6 7 9 21 36 -15 25
13 Elche 22 5 9 8 30 32 -2 24
14 Mallorca 22 6 6 10 28 34 -6 24
15 Sevilla 22 7 3 12 29 37 -8 24
16 Valencia 22 5 8 9 23 35 -12 23
17 Getafe 22 6 5 11 16 27 -11 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 21 4 6 11 24 34 -10 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Alaves W W L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 1)

Getafe D D L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.35
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.87
# Clean Sheets: 0

Getafe

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.77
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.45
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Alavés are favored to take all three points, with a 56.0% probability of a home win against Getafe’s 21.0% chance, and a 23.0% likelihood of a draw. The game leans towards being tight and low scoring, with under 2.5 goals slightly preferred (55.0% implied vs 45.0% for over), but both teams are still more likely than not to score (51.0% probability of “goal”). In the table, Alavés sit 10th on 25 points, just two points and seven places ahead of 17th-placed Getafe on 23 points.

Match Analysis

Alavés arrive in better form, with back-to-back 2–1 wins over Espanyol (away) and Betis (home) before a narrow 1–0 defeat at Atlético Madrid. They have found a bit more cutting edge lately, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded across their last five, and their expected goals going forward (1.35 per game) suggest they are creating a decent number of chances even if the scorelines stay modest. The concern is at the back: 1.868 expected goals conceded on average and no clean sheets in the last five show they do leave openings. Getafe, meanwhile, are grinding but not flourishing. They come into this one off two draws – 0–0 at home to Celta and 1–1 away at Girona – following a 1–0 home loss to Valencia. Their attack has been blunt, with just 0.4 goals per game over the last five and 0.768 expected goals, while defensively they concede 1.8 goals on average despite allowing only 1.452 expected goals, indicating they are being punished heavily when they switch off.

Final Prediction

Alavés have the edge thanks to better recent results, stronger chance creation, and home advantage against a Getafe side struggling badly in front of goal. The key factor to watch will be whether Alavés can turn their higher expected goals into an early lead, forcing Getafe out of their shell and testing a defense that has been conceding more than the underlying numbers suggest.

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