La Liga 2025-2026: Alaves vs Girona Prediction - 23 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Alaves

Home Team
55%
VS

Girona

Away Team
22%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Real Madrid 24 19 3 2 53 19 34 60
2 Barcelona 24 19 1 4 64 25 39 58
3 Villarreal 24 15 3 6 45 26 19 48
4 Ath Madrid 24 13 6 5 38 21 17 45
5 Betis 24 11 8 5 39 29 10 41
6 Espanol 24 10 5 9 29 33 -4 35
7 Celta 24 8 10 6 32 27 5 34
8 Sociedad 24 8 7 9 34 35 -1 31
9 Betis 24 9 4 11 27 34 -7 31
10 Osasuna 24 8 6 10 28 28 0 30
11 Getafe 24 8 5 11 20 28 -8 29
12 Girona 24 7 8 9 24 38 -14 29
13 Sevilla 24 7 5 12 31 39 -8 26
14 Alaves 24 7 5 12 21 30 -9 26
15 Valencia 24 6 8 10 25 37 -12 26
16 Elche 24 5 10 9 31 35 -4 25
17 Vallecano 23 6 7 10 21 30 -9 25
18 Mallorca 24 6 6 12 29 39 -10 24
19 Levante 24 4 6 14 26 41 -15 18
20 Oviedo 23 3 7 13 13 36 -23 16

Recent Trends

Alaves D L W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)

Girona W D L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.89
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.96
# Clean Sheets: 0

Girona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.20
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Alavés are slight favourites here, with a 55.0% probability of a home win against Girona’s 22.0%, and a 23.0% chance of a draw, so the model points to a home victory. The game leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (48.0% for over 2.5, so a narrow edge to the under) in what looks like a tight contest. In the table, Girona sit 12th on 29 points, while Alavés are just behind in 14th with 26 points, adding extra weight to this mid-table clash.

Match Analysis

Alavés come into this with mixed form: a valuable 2-1 away win at Espanyol, a 0-2 home defeat to Getafe, and a 1-1 draw at Sevilla. Those three matches underline their fine margins – never scoring more than two and failing to keep a clean sheet. Their recent advanced numbers suggest they are creating more than they finish: 1.89 expected goals on average in the last five games but only 1.0 actually scored, while conceding 1.2 goals from 1.962 expected against. That points to some wastefulness up front and vulnerability at the back. Girona’s last three outings show a similar story of tight games but with slightly better results: an impressive 2-1 home win over Barcelona, a 1-1 draw at Sevilla, and a narrow 0-1 loss away to bottom-side Oviedo. They average 1.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded over their last five, with 1.542 expected goals for and 1.2 against, plus one clean sheet in that run. Overall, Girona’s recent defensive numbers look a bit more solid than Alavés’, even if the model still favours the hosts at Mendizorroza.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 as the likeliest outcome, despite the over 2.5 prediction probability being 48.0%, which is close to a coin flip. Two of Alavés’ last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Espanyol, 1-1 vs Sevilla, 0-2 vs Getafe), while Girona also had two of three over that line (2-1 vs Barcelona, 1-1 vs Sevilla, 0-1 vs Oviedo). However, both sides’ recent averages – Alavés scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2, Girona scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8, with xG figures clustered around 1–2 per game – suggest a closely fought match where three or more goals is far from guaranteed.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches
Girona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.42, hinting at a moderate corners prediction rather than a barrage from either side. Alavés’ last three games produced corner counts of 3-0, 6-3, and 2-4, showing they can alternate between passive and more front-foot displays. Girona’s recent corner numbers – 3-7 vs Barcelona, 7-5 vs Sevilla, 4-4 vs Oviedo – suggest they often allow opponents to attack but still generate their own set-piece chances, fitting a game that should hover around that 9–10 corner mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches
Girona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots here is 25.01, a figure that fits with both sides’ recent patterns and supports the shots prediction of a relatively active but not wild attacking contest. Alavés have seen shot counts of 12-4, 13-17, and 11-10 in their last three, often allowing opponents a fair number of attempts. Girona’s games have featured 13-27 vs Barcelona, 15-11 vs Sevilla, and 9-8 vs Oviedo, underlining that their matches can be open but not always clinical, consistent with xG averages just above 1 per team.

Final Prediction

Alavés are backed as winners mainly due to home advantage and solid chance creation, even if their finishing has lagged behind their xG. Girona’s tighter recent defensive metrics mean this could be a cagey affair. A key factor to watch will be whether Alavés can finally turn their 1.89 expected goals per game into a more ruthless performance in front of their own fans.

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