La Liga 2025-2026: Alaves vs Mallorca Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Alaves

Home Team
47%
VS

Mallorca

Away Team
28%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 27.9
Expected Spread: +0.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 32 27 1 4 85 30 55 82
2 Real Madrid 32 23 4 5 67 30 37 73
3 Villarreal 32 19 5 8 57 37 20 62
4 Ath Madrid 32 17 6 9 53 35 18 57
5 Betis 32 12 13 7 48 40 8 49
6 Getafe 32 13 5 14 28 32 -4 44
7 Celta 32 11 11 10 44 41 3 44
8 Sociedad 32 11 9 12 49 49 0 42
9 Betis 32 12 5 15 34 45 -11 41
10 Osasuna 32 10 9 13 37 39 -2 39
11 Vallecano 32 9 11 12 30 38 -8 38
12 Espanol 32 10 8 14 37 49 -12 38
13 Girona 32 9 11 12 35 48 -13 38
14 Valencia 32 9 9 14 35 47 -12 36
15 Mallorca 32 9 8 15 40 49 -9 35
16 Elche 32 8 11 13 42 49 -7 35
17 Sevilla 32 9 7 16 39 53 -14 34
18 Alaves 32 8 9 15 36 48 -12 33
19 Levante 32 8 8 16 37 50 -13 32
20 Oviedo 32 6 10 16 25 49 -24 28

Recent Trends

Alaves L D D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)

Mallorca D W W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

xG (avg) 1.75
xGA (avg) 1.62
Clean Sheets 0

Mallorca

xG (avg) 0.79
xGA (avg) 2.29
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Alavés are slight favourites at home, with a 47.0% chance of victory compared to Mallorca’s 28.0%, and an expected goal spread of +0.27 in favour of the hosts. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction on goals at 50.0% probability, suggesting an open contest. In the table, Mallorca sit 15th on 35 points, just two points and three places above 18th-placed Alavés in a direct relegation scrap.

Match Analysis

Alavés arrive with some quiet momentum despite sitting in the bottom three. A narrow 2-1 defeat away at Real Madrid followed back-to-back high-scoring draws – 3-3 at Sociedad and 2-2 at home to Osasuna – showing they can trade punches with strong opponents. They’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over their last five, but their xG numbers (1.754 for, 1.624 against) suggest they’re creating slightly more than they finish and are not being overrun defensively, even if they haven’t kept a single clean sheet in that period. Mallorca’s league position hints at danger, but recent results bring some optimism: a 1-1 draw with Valencia came after eye-catching home wins against Vallecano (3-0) and Real Madrid (2-1). However, those three results are better than their broader trend: just 0.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded on average in the last five, with xG of only 0.79 for and 2.292 against. That points to a side often second-best in chances created and allowed, relying on clinical finishing and resilience in their standout recent wins.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
The model edges towards an over 2.5 prediction at 50.0%, and Alavés’ recent scorelines back that up. All three of their latest matches went over 2.5 goals (3, 6 and 4 total goals respectively), underlining their mix of attacking intent and defensive frailty. Mallorca, by contrast, have seen two of their last three go under 2.5 (1-1 vs Valencia, 2-1 vs Real Madrid, 3-0 vs Vallecano), but their poor averages – 0.6 scored, 2.4 conceded with xG of 0.79 for and 2.292 against – suggest that if Alavés impose themselves, this could again tip over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match stands at 10.35, pointing to a busy game in wide areas. Alavés have been involved in 15, 14 and 8 corners across their last three outings, regularly racking up numbers (7, 5, 6 taken) as they attack in volume. Mallorca’s recent games produced 11, 13 and 10 corners, with a good share of those against them, which supports a corners prediction close to the 10–11 range as both sides look to use the flanks and crosses to break each other down.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 27.86, which fits well with recent patterns for both teams. Alavés matches have been shot-heavy: 19-24 vs Real Madrid, 12-12 at Sociedad and 18-8 vs Osasuna underline their willingness to pull the trigger, matching their xG of 1.754 per game. Mallorca’s games have also generated plenty of attempts (20-10, 12-17, 6-15), often with the opposition creating more, which matches an aggressive but vulnerable profile and supports a shots prediction close to the high-20s in expected shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Alaves wins by X goals. Negative = Mallorca wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Alaves vs Mallorca with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Alaves vs Mallorca
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of +0.27 in favour of Alavés reflects a slight but real home advantage. Recent scorelines reinforce this expected spread: Alavés have been competitive even in defeat, with a combined goal difference of -1 over their last three (1-2, 3-3, 2-2), while Mallorca are +4 over their last three but buoyed heavily by that 3-0 against Vallecano. Given Alavés’ stronger xG trend and home factor versus Mallorca’s worrying defensive numbers, the expected spread aligns with the 47.0% home win probability.

Final Prediction

Alavés are backed to edge this because their underlying chance creation is more consistent, and they play with greater attacking volume, especially at home. Mallorca’s recent headline results are impressive, but their xG and defensive record hint at fragility. The key factor to watch will be whether Alavés can convert their territorial and shooting dominance into goals early, or whether Mallorca can again punch above their underlying numbers on the break.

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