La Liga 2025-2026: Alaves vs Osasuna Prediction - 5 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Alaves

Home Team
53%
VS

Osasuna

Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 29 24 1 4 78 28 50 73
2 Real Madrid 29 22 3 4 63 26 37 69
3 Villarreal 29 18 4 7 54 34 20 58
4 Ath Madrid 29 17 6 6 49 28 21 57
5 Betis 29 11 11 7 44 37 7 44
6 Celta 29 10 11 8 41 35 6 41
7 Sociedad 29 10 8 11 44 45 -1 38
8 Getafe 29 11 5 13 25 31 -6 38
9 Betis 29 11 5 13 32 41 -9 38
10 Osasuna 29 10 7 12 34 35 -1 37
11 Espanol 29 10 7 12 36 44 -8 37
12 Valencia 29 9 8 12 32 42 -10 35
13 Girona 29 8 10 11 31 44 -13 34
14 Vallecano 29 7 11 11 28 35 -7 32
15 Sevilla 29 8 7 14 37 49 -12 31
16 Alaves 29 8 7 14 30 41 -11 31
17 Elche 29 6 11 12 38 46 -8 29
18 Mallorca 29 7 7 15 34 47 -13 28
19 Levante 29 6 8 15 34 48 -14 26
20 Oviedo 29 4 9 16 20 48 -28 21

Recent Trends

Alaves W D L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 2)

Osasuna W L D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

xG (avg) 1.74
xGA (avg) 1.95
Clean Sheets 0

Osasuna

xG (avg) 0.81
xGA (avg) 1.85
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Alavés are marginally favoured at Mendizorroza, with a 53.0% probability of a home win against an Osasuna side given a 24.0% chance, leaving the draw at 23.0%. The model leans towards a tight Alavés victory and an under 2.5 goals prediction (46.0% for over 2.5, so a slight edge to the under), in a clash between 16th-placed Alavés on 31 points and 10th-placed Osasuna on 37.

Match Analysis

Alavés come into this needing points to steer clear of the bottom three, and their last three games have been chaotic but competitive: a 4-3 away win at Celta, a 1-1 home draw with third-placed Villarreal, and a narrow 3-2 loss at Valencia. They’ve shown they can trade blows with better sides, but that seven-goal thriller at Balaídos and the defeat at Mestalla underline how vulnerable they can be without the ball. Across their last five, they’re averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with 0 clean sheets, and their xG numbers (1.736 for, 1.946 against) suggest they’re allowing slightly better chances than they’re creating. Osasuna arrive in safer mid-table waters but with similarly mixed recent form: a controlled 1-0 home win over Girona, a 3-1 defeat at Sociedad, and a 2-2 draw against Mallorca in Pamplona. They’ve been the more stable side defensively, conceding 1.2 per game over their last five with one clean sheet, but the advanced data is a warning sign: they generate only 0.812 xG on average while conceding 1.852. That points to a team living a little dangerously, allowing opponents enough chances to make games uncomfortable if they’re not sharp.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards under 2.5 in this one, despite a 46.0% probability on over 2.5, so the under 2.5 prediction is built on a view of a cagey, low-scoring battle. Alavés have seen 2 of their last 3 matches go over 2.5 goals (4-3 at Celta, 2-3 at Valencia) and one under (1-1 vs Villarreal), while Osasuna have had 2 of 3 finish under (1-0 vs Girona, 1-3 at Sociedad was over, 2-2 vs Mallorca over as well). With both teams averaging just 1.2 goals scored, and each conceding around 1.2–1.4, plus relatively modest xG figures, a narrow scoreline fits the data even if recent scorelines have occasionally exploded.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.16, pointing towards a fairly standard La Liga game rather than a barrage from wide areas. Alavés’ last three have produced corner totals of 5, 7 and 12 (they’ve often been out-cornered, especially 2-10 at Valencia), which fits the idea of a side spending long spells without the ball. Osasuna, by contrast, have racked up 6, 5 and 8 corners themselves in their last three, regularly forcing opponents back. That balance supports a corners prediction in line with the 9.16 expected corners: Osasuna’s steady attacking play should push the total up, but not to extreme levels.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 24.59, suggesting a game with a decent but not frantic shooting volume. Alavés’ matches have recently seen 26 shots at Celta, 18 against Villarreal and 29 at Valencia, indicating they’re involved in open contests where both teams create. Osasuna’s last three produced 24 shots vs Girona, 27 at Sociedad and 30 against Mallorca, showing a similar pattern. Combined with their xG profiles – both sides creating around a goal’s worth of chances per game – this shots prediction feels appropriate for a match where the quality of finishing, rather than sheer volume, will decide it.

Final Prediction

Alavés’ edge comes from home advantage and a slightly higher attacking xG profile, even if their defensive record is a concern. Osasuna’s underlying numbers hint at a team allowing too much while not creating enough, which may tilt the balance towards the hosts. The key factor to watch will be which midfield asserts control early; if Alavés can pin Osasuna back and turn territory into chances, their slight statistical edge should translate into three vital points.

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