La Liga 2025-2026: Alaves vs Vallecano Prediction - 23 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Alaves

Home Team
45%
VS

Vallecano

Away Team
30%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 23.0
Expected Spread: +0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 37 31 1 5 94 33 61 94
2 Real Madrid 37 26 5 6 73 33 40 83
3 Villarreal 37 21 6 10 67 45 22 69
4 Ath Madrid 37 21 6 10 61 39 22 69
5 Betis 37 14 15 8 57 47 10 57
6 Celta 37 13 12 12 52 48 4 51
7 Getafe 37 14 6 17 31 38 -7 48
8 Vallecano 37 11 14 12 39 43 -4 47
9 Valencia 37 12 10 15 43 54 -11 46
10 Sociedad 37 11 12 14 58 60 -2 45
11 Espanol 37 12 9 16 42 54 -12 45
12 Betis 37 13 6 18 41 54 -13 45
13 Sevilla 37 12 7 18 46 59 -13 43
14 Alaves 37 11 10 16 43 54 -11 43
15 Levante 37 11 9 17 46 59 -13 42
16 Osasuna 37 11 9 17 44 49 -5 42
17 Elche 37 10 12 15 48 56 -8 42
18 Girona 37 9 13 15 38 54 -16 40
19 Mallorca 37 10 9 18 44 57 -13 39
20 Oviedo 37 6 11 20 26 57 -31 29

Recent Trends

Alaves W W D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)

Vallecano W D D W D

  • Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

xG (avg) 0.98
xGA (avg) 0.79
Clean Sheets 2

Vallecano

xG (avg) 1.37
xGA (avg) 1.58
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Alavés are slight favourites at Mendizorroza, with a 45.0% probability of taking all three points against a Vallecano side given a 30.0% chance, and a 26.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points to a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction (45.0% chance of over 2.5), suggesting a tight affair. In the table, Vallecano sit 8th on 47 points, while Alavés are 14th on 43, but recent form has narrowed that gap on the pitch.

Match Analysis

Alavés arrive in quietly impressive form: back‑to‑back 1-0 wins over Barcelona and Oviedo, followed by a 1-1 draw away at Elche. That’s seven points from the last three, with only two goals conceded and two clean sheets. The performances have been disciplined rather than expansive; across the last five games they’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, but their underlying numbers are more conservative: 0.984 xG for and just 0.792 xG against per match, hinting at a team increasingly comfortable in low‑margin contests. Vallecano, 8th and pushing to cement a top‑half finish, come in unbeaten in three: a statement 2-0 home win against Villarreal, plus 1-1 draws with Valencia (away) and Girona (home). The pattern is similar to Alavés: tight games, small scorelines. Over their last five, Vallecano average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, but intriguingly generate more in chance quality than the scorelines suggest, with 1.372 xG for per game and 1.582 xG against. That imbalance – creating but not fully taking chances, while allowing decent looks at their own goal – feeds into the slight edge given to the home side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with the over 2.5 prediction only at 45.0%, reflecting both sides’ recent patterns. All three of Alavés’ latest matches finished with two goals or fewer (1-0, 1-0, 1-1), and the same is true for Vallecano (2-0, 1-1, 1-1) – 0 out of 3 for each club have gone over 2.5. Combined with Alavés’ modest 0.984 xG for and Vallecano’s 0.8 goals scored on average, this under 2.5 call looks well supported by both numbers and recent scorelines.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.58, pointing towards a fairly typical La Liga count rather than an extreme. Alavés’ last three have produced 7, 10 and 10 total corners respectively, while Vallecano’s have seen 10, 6 and 14, which aligns well with the model’s predicted corners range. With both sides capable of periods of pressure but not relentlessly front‑foot, a total just under double figures feels in line with their mixed attacking approaches.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction is for 22.98 total efforts, again suggesting a balanced contest without turning into a shooting gallery. Alavés’ recent games have seen combined shot totals of 15 (vs Oviedo), 17 (vs Barcelona) and 28 (vs Elche), while Vallecano’s produced 26 (vs Villarreal), 18 (vs Valencia) and 27 (vs Girona). Those numbers, together with Vallecano’s higher xG for (1.372) and xG against (1.582), support the idea of around 20–25 expected shots, evenly spread.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Alaves wins by X goals. Negative = Vallecano wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Alaves vs Vallecano with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Alaves vs Vallecano
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is a narrow +0.1 in favour of Alavés, highlighting just how finely balanced this fixture is. Recently, Alavés are +2 on goal difference over their last three (3 scored, 1 conceded), while Vallecano are +1 (4 scored, 3 conceded), which matches the view of a marginal home edge rather than a dominant favourite. With a 45.0% win probability for the hosts, 30.0% for the visitors and both defences generally keeping scores low, the expected spread reflects a likely one‑goal game either way.

Final Prediction

Alavés’ edge comes from form, defensive solidity and home advantage, even if Vallecano’s league position is stronger. The key battleground will be whether Vallecano can finally convert their decent xG output into goals against an Alavés side that has become adept at managing tight, under‑2.5 encounters.

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