La Liga 2025-2026: Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction - 13 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Alaves

Home Team
26%
VS

Villarreal

Away Team
55%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 27 22 1 4 72 26 46 67
2 Real Madrid 27 20 3 4 56 23 33 63
3 Ath Madrid 27 16 6 5 46 25 21 54
4 Villarreal 27 17 3 7 50 32 18 54
5 Betis 27 11 10 6 42 34 8 43
6 Celta 27 10 10 7 37 30 7 40
7 Espanol 27 10 7 10 34 40 -6 37
8 Sociedad 27 9 8 10 40 41 -1 35
9 Getafe 27 10 5 12 23 29 -6 35
10 Betis 27 10 5 12 30 37 -7 35
11 Osasuna 27 9 7 11 32 32 0 34
12 Valencia 27 8 8 11 30 41 -11 32
13 Vallecano 27 7 10 10 27 33 -6 31
14 Sevilla 27 8 7 12 35 42 -7 31
15 Girona 27 7 10 10 28 43 -15 31
16 Alaves 27 7 6 14 25 37 -12 27
17 Elche 27 5 11 11 35 41 -6 26
18 Mallorca 27 6 7 14 31 44 -13 25
19 Levante 27 5 7 15 29 45 -16 22
20 Oviedo 27 3 9 15 17 44 -27 18

Recent Trends

Alaves L L D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)

Villarreal W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.94
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.15
# Clean Sheets: 0

Villarreal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.36
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.88
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are clear favourites here, with a 55.0% chance of taking all three points away at Mendizorroza, while Alaves are given just a 26.0% shot at the upset and the draw sits at 19.0%. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (49.0% for under) despite a 54.0% chance that both teams find the net. In the table, Villarreal are flying in 4th with 54 points from 27 games, while Alaves sit down in 16th on 27 points, nervously looking over their shoulder at the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Alaves come into this on a poor run: back‑to‑back away defeats to Valencia (2-3) and Levante (0-2), followed by a 2-2 home draw with Girona. The goals are there – four scored in the last three – but the back line is leaking, with seven conceded over that spell and no clean sheet in their last five. Their recent matches have also seen them under pressure territorially: they’ve been outshot twice (10-19 at Valencia, 17-22 at Levante) and only really imposed themselves at home to Girona. Villarreal’s form is more solid, even if not spectacular. Wins over Valencia (2-1) and Elche (2-1) either side of a heavy 1-4 loss at Barcelona underline a side that generally gets the job done against teams below them. They’ve scored five and conceded six in their last three, and their broader five‑game metrics show 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on average, backed by 1.364 expected goals created and 1.884 allowed. Alaves, by contrast, are generating 1.94 xG per game but conceding 2.154 xG, suggesting they are more open and vulnerable both ways. That imbalance, plus Villarreal’s higher league standing and greater efficiency, tilts the contest towards the visitors.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly to an under 2.5 goals prediction, with under favoured despite only a 49.0% probability and several recent high‑scoring matches. Two of Alaves’ last three have gone over 2.5 goals (2-3 v Valencia, 2-2 v Girona), with only the 0-2 at Levante coming under. Villarreal have also seen two of their last three go over – the 1-4 at Barcelona and the 2-1 against Elche – with just the 2-1 v Valencia narrowly over the line as well. The caution around goals rests on the longer‑term averages: Alaves are at 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, Villarreal 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded, with both teams’ xG suggesting chances but not necessarily a goal fest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate total, with 9.46 expected total corners in the match. Alaves’ last three outings produced corner counts of 2-10, 6-10 and 7-6, indicating that their open style often allows opponents plenty of set‑piece opportunities. Villarreal’s recent games have been a bit quieter in this department – 4-6 v Elche, 2-3 at Barcelona, 5-4 v Valencia – which fits a more controlled, possession‑based approach. Put together, the predicted corners figure around the 9–10 mark feels in line with Alaves’ end‑to‑end tendencies balanced by Villarreal’s more measured attacking.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.2, which aligns with how both sides have been playing. Alaves’ last three matches have seen combined shot counts of 10-19, 17-22 and 17-10 – all well into the mid‑20s or higher, reflecting a team that both creates and concedes plenty of efforts. Villarreal’s games have been a touch calmer but still lively: 16-13 v Elche, 6-19 at Barcelona, 12-8 v Valencia. This shots prediction fits the xG story too: Alaves’ higher attacking xG (1.94) and Villarreal’s 1.364 suggest enough chances for a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers.

Final Prediction

Villarreal’s superior league position, more reliable results against weaker sides and better balance between attack and defence give them the edge over an Alaves team struggling to keep goals out. Alaves’ ability to generate chances means they can threaten, but their defensive numbers and lack of clean sheets are a concern. The key factor to watch will be how Villarreal manage Alaves’ open, chance‑heavy style; if the visitors control the rhythm, their quality should show over 90 minutes.

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