La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Bilbao vs Betis Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Ath Bilbao

Home Team
42%
VS

Betis

Away Team
34%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 28 23 1 4 77 28 49 70
2 Real Madrid 28 21 3 4 60 24 36 66
3 Ath Madrid 28 17 6 5 47 25 22 57
4 Villarreal 28 17 4 7 51 33 18 55
5 Betis 28 11 11 6 43 35 8 44
6 Celta 28 10 11 7 38 31 7 41
7 Sociedad 28 10 8 10 43 42 1 38
8 Espanol 28 10 7 11 35 42 -7 37
9 Getafe 28 10 5 13 23 30 -7 35
10 Betis 28 10 5 13 30 40 -10 35
11 Osasuna 28 9 7 12 33 35 -2 34
12 Girona 28 8 10 10 31 43 -12 34
13 Vallecano 28 7 11 10 28 34 -6 32
14 Valencia 28 8 8 12 30 42 -12 32
15 Sevilla 28 8 7 13 37 47 -10 31
16 Mallorca 28 7 7 14 33 45 -12 28
17 Alaves 28 7 7 14 26 38 -12 28
18 Elche 28 5 11 12 36 45 -9 26
19 Levante 28 5 8 15 30 46 -16 23
20 Oviedo 28 4 9 15 18 44 -26 21

Recent Trends

Ath Bilbao L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 2 - 1)

Betis D L D D W

  • Last Match: D vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Bilbao

xG (avg) 1.96
xGA (avg) 0.89
Clean Sheets 0

Betis

xG (avg) 1.73
xGA (avg) 0.97
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao are slight favourites at San Mamés, with a 42.0% chance of taking all three points against a Betis side given a 34.0% shot at victory and a 25.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite both teams chasing European spots from mid-table positions just outside the top four. With Betis currently sitting 5th on 44 points and Athletic just behind in the pack, the margins look fine and the stakes high.

Match Analysis

Athletic come into this one on a three-game winless run: back-to-back defeats to Girona (0-3 away) and Barcelona (0-1 at home), followed by a 1-1 draw at Vallecano. The pattern is worrying in terms of results but not entirely in terms of performances: they created 20 shots at Girona and 10 against Barça, while their xG over the last five games sits at a healthy 1.962 per match. Defensively, however, the Basques have not kept a single clean sheet in that five-game spell and are conceding 1.4 goals on average, a clear gap versus a much lower expected goals against of 0.892 – a sign of lapses at key moments rather than being constantly outplayed. Betis arrive with a similar blend of frustration and promise. They have drawn two of their last three – 1-1 at home to Celta and 2-2 in the derby against Sevilla – plus a 0-2 defeat away to Getafe. The chances are there: over the last five games they average 1.728 xG per match, yet only 1.0 actual goal scored, and they also have no clean sheets in that period, conceding 1.2 per game from an xGA of 0.972. Both sides are creating more than they’re finishing and conceding more than they should, which points to a tense, error-sensitive contest rather than an open shoot-out.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
Betis
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours under 2.5 with a 51.0% implied probability against 49.0% for over, so the under 2.5 prediction edges it. Two of Athletic Bilbao’s last three league games have finished under 2.5 goals (0-1 vs Barcelona, 1-1 at Vallecano), with only the 0-3 loss at Girona going over. Betis, by contrast, have had two of their last three go over (2-2 vs Sevilla, 0-2 at Getafe) and one under (1-1 vs Celta). Still, both teams’ recent averages – 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded for Athletic, 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded for Betis – combined with relatively modest xG against numbers, suggest a tight scoreline remains the likeliest outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches
Betis
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners in this match is 9.38, pointing to a moderate corners prediction rather than a barrage from the flanks. Athletic’s last three games produced corner totals of 11 (9-2 vs Girona), 6 (2-4 vs Barcelona) and 9 (4-5 vs Vallecano), while Betis have seen 7 (3-4 vs Celta), 11 (8-3 vs Getafe) and 7 (4-3 vs Sevilla). Both teams tend to attack but not relentlessly, and their recent numbers fit well with a predicted corners range around nine to ten, in line with a balanced, midfield-heavy contest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches
Betis
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game stand at 25.02, suggesting a lively but not chaotic attacking battle. Athletic’s last three matches featured 34 shots vs Girona (20-14), 17 against Barcelona (10-7) and 23 at Vallecano (8-15). Betis have seen 26 vs Celta (19-7), 23 at Getafe (14-9) and 23 against Sevilla (9-14). Those figures support a shots prediction around the mid-20s, aligned with both sides’ solid xG production but somewhat inconsistent finishing.

Final Prediction

Athletic Bilbao’s home advantage and slightly stronger attacking xG profile give them a narrow edge, reflected in their 42.0% win probability. Betis, though, are creating plenty themselves and won’t be easy to put away. The key factor to watch will be which side finally aligns its finishing with its chance creation – the more clinical team in front of goal is likely to decide a tight, low-scoring affair.

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