La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Bilbao vs Levante Prediction - 8 Feb 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Ath Bilbao
Home Team
88%
VS
Levante
Away Team
5%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5:
54%
Under 2.5:
46%
Goal:
54%
No Goal:
46%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 22 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 60 | 23 | 37 | 55 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 47 | 18 | 29 | 54 |
| 3 | Ath Madrid | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 45 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 39 | 23 | 16 | 42 |
| 5 | Betis | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 28 | 8 | 35 |
| 6 | Espanol | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 34 |
| 7 | Celta | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 33 |
| 8 | Sociedad | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Osasuna | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 26 |
| 10 | Alaves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 25 |
| 11 | Betis | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Girona | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 25 |
| 13 | Elche | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 24 |
| 14 | Mallorca | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 24 |
| 15 | Sevilla | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 24 |
| 16 | Valencia | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 23 |
| 17 | Getafe | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 23 |
| 18 | Vallecano | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 22 |
| 19 | Levante | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 18 |
| 20 | Oviedo | 22 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 34 | -22 | 16 |
Recent Trends
Ath Bilbao
- Last Match: vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 2)
Levante
- Last Match: vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Sevilla (Goals: 3 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Ath Bilbao
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.47
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.16
# Clean Sheets:
0
Levante
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.99
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.13
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
Athletic Bilbao are clear favourites at San Mamés, with an 88.0% probability of taking all three points against 19th-placed Levante, who have just 18 points and are deep in the relegation fight. The model also leans towards a game with goals, giving a 54.0% chance of over 2.5 goals. With Bilbao pushing to climb toward the European spots and Levante trying to escape the bottom three, the stakes are high on both sides.
Match Analysis
Bilbao come into this one on a three-game winless run: a 1–1 home draw with Sociedad followed by away defeats to Sevilla (2–1) and Mallorca (3–2). The results are poor, but their underlying numbers suggest they’ve been a bit unlucky: over the last five matches they average 1.47 expected goals for versus only 0.8 actually scored, and 1.16 expected goals against versus 1.2 conceded. They are creating chances, but lacking cutting edge and defensive concentration, with no clean sheets in their last five.
Levante’s recent run is slightly more encouraging: a gritty 0–0 at home to Atlético Madrid, a 3–2 home win over Elche, and a 2–0 defeat away to Real Madrid. Their average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in the last five matches, combined with just 0.99 expected goals for and a worrying 2.13 expected goals against, underlines how often they are second best. Two clean sheets in that span show they can dig in, but they are frequently allowing opponents too many chances.
Final Prediction
Bilbao’s stronger underlying attacking numbers, home advantage, and Levante’s fragile defence explain why the prediction so heavily favours a home win. The key factor to watch will be whether Bilbao can finally align their chance creation with clinical finishing against a side that consistently gives up good opportunities.
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