La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Bilbao vs Osasuna Prediction - 21 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Ath Bilbao

Home Team
60%
VS

Osasuna

Away Team
20%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 31 26 1 4 84 30 54 79
2 Real Madrid 31 22 4 5 65 29 36 70
3 Villarreal 31 19 4 8 56 36 20 61
4 Ath Madrid 31 17 6 8 51 32 19 57
5 Betis 31 11 13 7 45 38 7 46
6 Celta 31 11 11 9 44 40 4 44
7 Sociedad 31 11 9 11 49 48 1 42
8 Getafe 31 12 5 14 27 32 -5 41
9 Osasuna 31 10 9 12 37 38 -1 39
10 Espanol 31 10 8 13 37 48 -11 38
11 Betis 31 11 5 15 33 45 -12 38
12 Girona 31 9 11 11 33 45 -12 38
13 Vallecano 31 8 11 12 29 38 -9 35
14 Valencia 31 9 8 14 34 46 -12 35
15 Mallorca 31 9 7 15 39 48 -9 34
16 Sevilla 31 9 7 15 39 51 -12 34
17 Alaves 31 8 9 14 35 46 -11 33
18 Elche 31 7 11 13 39 47 -8 32
19 Levante 31 7 8 16 35 50 -15 29
20 Oviedo 31 6 9 16 24 48 -24 27

Recent Trends

Ath Bilbao L L W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)

Osasuna D D W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Bilbao

xG (avg) 2.09
xGA (avg) 0.82
Clean Sheets 0

Osasuna

xG (avg) 0.86
xGA (avg) 2.05
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao are favoured to take all three points at San Mamés, with a 60% probability of a home win against an Osasuna side given just a 20% chance, and a 20% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a tight game with an under 2.5 goals prediction (43% chance of over 2.5, so the value is on the low scoreline), despite a 53% probability that both teams get on the scoresheet. Osasuna arrive ninth in La Liga on 39 points, while Athletic’s exact position is not listed but they are clearly chasing the European spots just above them.

Match Analysis

Athletic come in from a mixed run: a 2-1 home win over Betis was sandwiched between a 2-1 home defeat to Villarreal and a flat 2-0 loss away at Getafe. At San Mamés, though, they’ve been intense and front-foot, racking up 18 shots and 15 corners against Villarreal and 11 shots and six corners against Betis – performances that suggest more than their recent results alone. Over the last five games they are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with an impressive 2.09 expected goals per match and only 0.82 xG against, underlining that they generally create more and better chances than they allow, even if they have not kept a clean sheet in that period. Osasuna’s last three outings paint a different picture: a solid 1-0 home win over Girona, followed by two draws – 2-2 away at Alavés and 1-1 at home to Betis. Jagoba Arrasate’s team are competitive but often on the back foot; away at Alavés they were outshot 18-8 and lost the corner count 7-1, a sign of how deep they can be pushed. Over their last five matches they average just 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded, with only 0.86 xG created per game and a worrying 2.05 xG conceded, figures that point to a side giving up a lot of chances and relying on resilience rather than control.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5, even though the over 2.5 prediction holds a 43% probability, because the balance of numbers still favours a more controlled, lower-scoring contest. Two of Athletic’s last three games have finished under 2.5 goals (2-0 vs Getafe, 2-1 vs Betis and Villarreal both producing exactly three goals), while Osasuna’s last three are split: one clear under (1-0 vs Girona) and two over (2-2 at Alavés, 1-1 vs Betis at exactly two goals). Athletic’s average of 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, combined with Osasuna’s 1.0 for and 1.4 against and relatively modest xG numbers, supports the idea of a match that threatens goals but is more likely to stop short of turning into a shoot-out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.22, very much in line with what these sides have been producing. Athletic’s last three matches have seen them involved in corner counts of 18 (15-3 vs Villarreal), 7 (3-4 at Getafe) and 11 (6-5 vs Betis), reflecting a team that attacks wide and forces plenty of set pieces at home. Osasuna’s recent numbers are more modest – 9 corners vs Betis (6-3), just 8 at Alavés (1-7), and 8 against Girona (6-2) – suggesting that they concede territory and allow their opponents to rack up flags. Put together, that backs an expectation of around nine or ten predicted corners, with Athletic likely to dominate that statistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total of 23.97 also matches the recent patterns of both sides. Athletic’s last three games produced 30 shots vs Villarreal (18-12), 15 at Getafe (5-10) and 22 vs Betis (11-11), showing they are regularly involved in matches hovering around or above that 24-shot mark, especially at home where they drive the tempo. Osasuna’s last three saw 20 shots vs Betis (12-8), a barrage at Alavés (8-18 for a total of 26), and 24 against Girona (19-5), again reinforcing an attacking/defending mix that produces a healthy volume of attempts. With Athletic’s 2.09 xG and Osasuna conceding 2.05 xG on average, the shots prediction of roughly 24 efforts looks well-grounded in how these games typically unfold.

Final Prediction

Athletic Bilbao’s edge lies in their superior chance creation, stronger underlying xG profile, and the home advantage that so often turns San Mamés into a fortress. Osasuna have the organisation and grit to stay in the game, but their recent defensive metrics suggest they will spend long spells under pressure. The key factor to watch will be whether Athletic can turn their expected dominance in shots and corners into the clinical finishing that has, at times, deserted them in recent weeks.

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