La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Bilbao vs Valencia Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Ath Bilbao

Home Team
62%
VS

Valencia

Away Team
19%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 23.2
Expected Spread: +0.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 34 29 1 4 89 31 58 88
2 Real Madrid 34 24 5 5 70 31 39 77
3 Villarreal 34 21 5 8 64 39 25 68
4 Ath Madrid 34 19 6 9 58 37 21 63
5 Betis 34 13 14 7 52 41 11 53
6 Celta 34 12 11 11 48 44 4 47
7 Getafe 34 13 5 16 28 36 -8 44
8 Betis 34 13 5 16 40 50 -10 44
9 Sociedad 34 11 10 13 52 53 -1 43
10 Osasuna 34 11 9 14 40 42 -2 42
11 Vallecano 34 10 12 12 35 41 -6 42
12 Valencia 34 10 9 15 37 50 -13 39
13 Espanol 34 10 9 15 37 51 -14 39
14 Elche 34 9 11 14 45 53 -8 38
15 Mallorca 34 10 8 16 42 51 -9 38
16 Girona 34 9 11 14 36 51 -15 38
17 Sevilla 34 10 7 17 41 55 -14 37
18 Alaves 34 9 9 16 40 53 -13 36
19 Levante 34 8 9 17 38 55 -17 33
20 Oviedo 34 6 10 18 26 54 -28 28

Recent Trends

Ath Bilbao W L W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)

Valencia L W D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Bilbao

xG (avg) 1.63
xGA (avg) 0.98
Clean Sheets 1

Valencia

xG (avg) 1.65
xGA (avg) 1.60
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao are favoured to take all three points at San Mamés, with a 62.0% probability of a home win against a Valencia side given just a 19.0% chance, and a 19.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 48.0% and only a marginal 53.0% chance that both teams score. In the current table, Valencia sit 12th on 39 points, while Athletic’s position isn’t listed but they are clearly pushing higher up the league and closer to the European places.

Match Analysis

Athletic come into this on a solid run: two wins from their last three, including an impressive 4-2 away victory at Alavés and a narrow 1-0 home success over Osasuna. Even in their 3-2 defeat at Atlético Madrid they were competitive, with a 12-6 shots edge, underlining their ability to create chances against top opposition. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, backed by strong underlying numbers of 1.634 xG for and just 0.976 xG against. Valencia’s form is more fragile: one win, one draw and one defeat in their last three. The 2-1 home win over Girona was encouraging, but a 0-2 home loss to Atlético and a 1-1 draw at Mallorca – where they were outshot 20-10 – highlight their inconsistency. They’ve averaged only 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over the last five, despite generating 1.654 xG for per game and allowing 1.604 xG, suggesting they are not turning chances into goals and remain leaky at the back.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 with a 48.0% edge, slightly shading a higher-scoring scenario. Two of Athletic’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (4-2 v Alavés, 3-2 v Atlético) but their latest outing was a 1-0, while Valencia have seen under 2.5 in two of their last three (0-2, 1-1, with only the 2-1 v Girona going over). With both sides averaging just 1.0 goal conceded recently, and despite their xG figures being higher than their actual returns, the over 2.5 prediction looks less likely than a more controlled, cagey contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches
Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.63, pointing to a game hovering around the 9–10 corners mark in the corners prediction. Athletic’s last three have produced 11, 7 and 9 total corners, while Valencia’s have seen 8, 8 and 11, so both teams are accustomed to matches in that range. Athletic’s aggressive, front-foot play at home and Valencia’s tendency to soak up pressure should combine for a steady but not extreme volume of predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches
Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots is 23.2, a reasonable figure given both sides’ recent numbers and supports a balanced shots prediction. Athletic’s last three games have produced shot counts of 16, 18 and 15 in total, while Valencia’s have seen 32, 19 and 30, often because they allow opponents plenty of attempts. With Athletic’s 1.634 xG and Valencia’s 1.654 xG per game, the expected shots tally fits a match where chances are created but not necessarily converted freely.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Ath Bilbao wins by X goals. Negative = Valencia wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Ath Bilbao vs Valencia with expected spread of +0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Ath Bilbao vs Valencia
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.95 in favour of Athletic, effectively rating them to win by roughly a goal. Over their last three, Athletic have a combined goal difference of +2 (7 scored, 5 conceded), while Valencia sit at 0 (3 scored, 3 conceded), reflecting the home side’s sharper edge in both boxes. That +0.95 expected goal spread aligns closely with the 62.0% home-win probability and Athletic’s superior attacking and defensive metrics.

Final Prediction

Athletic Bilbao look to have the clearer path to victory: better recent form, stronger xG profile on both sides of the ball, and the weight of the probabilities firmly behind them at San Mamés. Valencia’s inability to convert chances and keep clean sheets – none in their last five – could be decisive. The key factor to watch will be Athletic’s attacking intensity against a Valencia defence that tends to concede territory and shots; if the hosts impose themselves early, the numbers suggest they’ll justify their favourite tag.

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