La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Bilbao vs Villarreal Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Ath Bilbao

Home Team
47%
VS

Villarreal

Away Team
29%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 30 25 1 4 80 29 51 76
2 Real Madrid 30 22 3 5 64 28 36 69
3 Villarreal 30 18 4 8 54 35 19 58
4 Ath Madrid 30 17 6 7 50 30 20 57
5 Betis 30 11 12 7 44 37 7 45
6 Celta 30 11 11 8 44 37 7 44
7 Sociedad 30 11 8 11 46 45 1 41
8 Getafe 30 12 5 13 27 31 -4 41
9 Osasuna 30 10 8 12 36 37 -1 38
10 Espanol 30 10 8 12 36 44 -8 38
11 Betis 30 11 5 14 32 43 -11 38
12 Girona 30 9 10 11 32 44 -12 37
13 Vallecano 30 8 11 11 29 35 -6 35
14 Valencia 30 9 8 13 34 45 -11 35
15 Alaves 30 8 8 14 32 43 -11 32
16 Mallorca 30 8 7 15 36 48 -12 31
17 Sevilla 30 8 7 15 37 50 -13 31
18 Elche 30 6 11 13 38 47 -9 29
19 Levante 30 6 8 16 34 50 -16 26
20 Oviedo 30 5 9 16 21 48 -27 24

Recent Trends

Ath Bilbao L W L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)

Villarreal L W D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Bilbao

xG (avg) 2.00
xGA (avg) 0.83
Clean Sheets 0

Villarreal

xG (avg) 1.21
xGA (avg) 1.38
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao are favoured at San Mamés with a 47.0% chance of victory, ahead of Villarreal’s 29.0% and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win in a tight game between a mid‑table Athletic side and a Villarreal team currently 3rd in La Liga and pushing for the Champions League. The expectation is for a low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 47.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Athletic’s recent form has been erratic: a 2-1 home win over Betis was bookended by a 0-2 defeat at Getafe and a heavy 0-3 loss at Girona. The performances, though, tell a slightly different story. They outshot Girona 20-14 and dominated corners 9-2 even in defeat, and across the last five games they have averaged 1.8 goals scored with a strong 2.004 expected goals, suggesting their attacking play has generally been productive despite uneven results. The main concern is defensive concentration: 1.2 goals conceded on average and no clean sheets in the last five. Villarreal arrive from a mixed run themselves: a 3-1 home win over Sociedad was offset by a 0-1 defeat at Girona and a 1-1 draw at Alavés. Their attack has cooled, with only 0.8 goals per game in the last five and xG of 1.208, while conceding 1.6 on average with 1.376 expected against. That combination hints at a side giving up slightly more than they create and struggling to control games away from home, where recent trips have brought just one point from Girona and Alavés.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 47.0% probability, and the recent scorelines give this some backing. Two of Athletic Bilbao’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (0-2 vs Getafe, 0-3 vs Girona, 2-1 vs Betis), while all three of Villarreal’s most recent games were under this line (0-1, 3-1, 1-1 – only one just over). With Athletic averaging 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded from solid xG numbers, and Villarreal at 0.8 for and 1.6 against, the over 2.5 prediction is less supported than a tight, controlled encounter staying under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.05 total corners, which fits the recent patterns of both sides. Athletic’s last three have produced 7, 11 and 11 corners, driven by their willingness to shoot and attack wide – they racked up 9 corners alone at Girona. Villarreal’s matches have been slightly calmer in this regard, with 11, 9 and 7 corners. With both teams happy to build from the flanks but not constantly camped in the opposition box, a figure around the predicted corners total of nine looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.53, and the last three outings suggest both teams will contribute. Athletic’s games have featured 15, 22 and 34 shots in total, reflecting their attacking intent even in defeat. Villarreal’s have seen 19, 32 and 18 shots. Given Athletic’s 2.004 xG average and Villarreal’s 1.208, the shots prediction of around 25 efforts overall aligns with two sides creating chances without necessarily turning the match into an end‑to‑end shoot‑out.

Final Prediction

Athletic Bilbao’s edge comes from their underlying numbers at both ends: they are generating better chances than they concede, and at home that tips the balance in their favour despite Villarreal’s higher league position. The key factor to watch will be whether Villarreal’s misfiring attack can rise to Athletic’s intensity at San Mamés; if not, a narrow, low‑scoring home win is on the cards.

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