La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Madrid vs Ath Bilbao Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Ath Madrid

Home Team
70%
VS

Ath Bilbao

Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: +0.8

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 32 27 1 4 85 30 55 82
2 Real Madrid 32 23 4 5 67 30 37 73
3 Villarreal 32 19 5 8 57 37 20 62
4 Ath Madrid 32 17 6 9 53 35 18 57
5 Betis 32 12 13 7 48 40 8 49
6 Getafe 32 13 5 14 28 32 -4 44
7 Celta 32 11 11 10 44 41 3 44
8 Sociedad 32 11 9 12 49 49 0 42
9 Betis 32 12 5 15 34 45 -11 41
10 Osasuna 32 10 9 13 37 39 -2 39
11 Vallecano 32 9 11 12 30 38 -8 38
12 Espanol 32 10 8 14 37 49 -12 38
13 Girona 32 9 11 12 35 48 -13 38
14 Valencia 32 9 9 14 35 47 -12 36
15 Mallorca 32 9 8 15 40 49 -9 35
16 Elche 32 8 11 13 42 49 -7 35
17 Sevilla 32 9 7 16 39 53 -14 34
18 Alaves 32 8 9 15 36 48 -12 33
19 Levante 32 8 8 16 37 50 -13 32
20 Oviedo 32 6 10 16 25 49 -24 28

Recent Trends

Ath Madrid L L L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)

Ath Bilbao W L L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Madrid

xG (avg) 2.11
xGA (avg) 1.29
Clean Sheets 1

Ath Bilbao

xG (avg) 1.21
xGA (avg) 1.56
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Atlético Madrid are clear favourites at home, with a 70.0% probability of victory against Athletic Bilbao’s 14.0%, and a 16.0% chance of a draw. Sitting 4th on 57 points, Atleti are pushing to secure a Champions League spot, while Bilbao are outside the top eight and chasing European relevance from the pack below. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 64.0% and a “both teams to score” chance of 56.0%.

Match Analysis

Atlético come into this one on a worrying run of three straight defeats – 2-3 at Elche, and back-to-back 1-2 losses against Sevilla and Barcelona. The performances, however, have not been catastrophic going forward: they scored in all three, created chances (6, 13 and 6 shots respectively), and their last five matches show 1.8 goals scored on average from a strong 2.112 expected goals. Defensively, though, they have looked more vulnerable than usual, conceding 1.4 goals per game recently despite allowing only 1.292 xG on average, suggesting lapses in both box defending and goalkeeping rather than being completely outplayed. Athletic Bilbao arrive with one win and two defeats from their last three: a tight 1-0 home win over Osasuna, but losses to Villarreal (1-2) and Getafe (0-2). They have struggled badly in front of goal, averaging just 0.8 goals scored across their last five matches, even if their 1.208 xG hints that they should be doing slightly better. At the other end, 1.8 goals conceded on average from 1.56 xG conceded underlines a defence that is giving up decent chances and being punished for it. Against an Atlético side still creating a high xG profile, that imbalance could be decisive.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs an over 2.5 prediction at 64.0%, and recent scorelines support a relatively open contest. Two of Atlético Madrid’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Elche and 2-1 vs Sevilla), while the Barcelona defeat finished exactly on 3 goals. Athletic Bilbao’s last three have all finished under 2.5 (1-0, 1-2, 0-2), but their xG of 1.208 for and 1.56 against per game, combined with Atleti’s 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, point towards enough chances for the match to cross the 3-goal line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.68, suggesting a match around the 9–10 corner mark. Atlético’s last three have produced 4, 12 and 10 total corners respectively, while Bilbao’s games registered 9, 18 and 7. That recent volume, especially Bilbao’s 15 corners won against Villarreal, supports a corners prediction close to the expected figure, with both sides likely to use width and sustained pressure to rack up set-piece opportunities.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.49, effectively pointing to mid‑20s for combined attempts. Atlético’s last three matches featured 20, 24 and 28 total shots, while Athletic Bilbao’s produced 15, 30 and 15. That aligns with a shots prediction in the low-to-mid 20s, and fits with the xG profiles: Atleti generating 2.112 xG and Bilbao 1.208 xG in recent games suggests enough attacking intent from both teams to approach the expected shots mark.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Ath Madrid wins by X goals. Negative = Ath Bilbao wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Ath Madrid vs Ath Bilbao with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Ath Madrid vs Ath Bilbao
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Atlético Madrid -0.79, meaning the home side are expected to win by around one goal on average. Atleti’s recent goal differences (-1, -1, -1) look poor, but they have been consistently competitive, while Bilbao’s run (-2, -1, +1) shows a side more likely to be outscored. Combining the expected spread with a 70.0% home win probability, Atlético’s stronger attack and slightly tighter underlying defensive numbers give them the edge.

Final Prediction

Atlético Madrid’s superior league position, higher attacking output and stronger xG metrics tilt this firmly in their favour, especially at home. Athletic Bilbao’s lack of cutting edge in front of goal could be costly against a side that continues to create plenty. A key factor to watch will be whether Atleti’s defence finally aligns with their underlying numbers; if it does, their Champions League push should take another step forward here.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel