La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Madrid vs Espanol Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Ath Madrid

Home Team
91%
VS

Espanol

Away Team
3%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 24.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Real Madrid 24 19 3 2 53 19 34 60
2 Barcelona 24 19 1 4 64 25 39 58
3 Villarreal 24 15 3 6 45 26 19 48
4 Ath Madrid 24 13 6 5 38 21 17 45
5 Betis 24 11 8 5 39 29 10 41
6 Espanol 24 10 5 9 29 33 -4 35
7 Celta 24 8 10 6 32 27 5 34
8 Sociedad 24 8 7 9 34 35 -1 31
9 Betis 24 9 4 11 27 34 -7 31
10 Osasuna 24 8 6 10 28 28 0 30
11 Getafe 24 8 5 11 20 28 -8 29
12 Girona 24 7 8 9 24 38 -14 29
13 Sevilla 24 7 5 12 31 39 -8 26
14 Alaves 24 7 5 12 21 30 -9 26
15 Valencia 24 6 8 10 25 37 -12 26
16 Elche 24 5 10 9 31 35 -4 25
17 Vallecano 23 6 7 10 21 30 -9 25
18 Mallorca 24 6 6 12 29 39 -10 24
19 Levante 24 4 6 14 26 41 -15 18
20 Oviedo 23 3 7 13 13 36 -23 16

Recent Trends

Ath Madrid L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 0)

Espanol D L L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Madrid

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.66
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.92
# Clean Sheets: 3

Espanol

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.15
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.50
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Atlético Madrid are strong favourites at home with a 91.0% probability of victory against Espanyol, who have just a 3.0% chance, with the draw at 5.0%. Sitting 4th on 45 points, Atlético are pushing for the Champions League spots, while 6th‑placed Espanyol (35 points) chase Europe from a safer mid‑table position. The model leans toward an over 2.5 goals prediction at 51.0%, suggesting a more open game than Atlético’s recent scorelines might imply.

Match Analysis

Despite a rough three‑game spell (two defeats and a draw, all without scoring), Atlético’s broader underlying numbers still look solid. In their last five matches they have averaged 1.6 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, with 1.662 expected goals (xG) created and just 0.92 xG allowed per game, plus three clean sheets. Even in the recent slump, the shot and corner counts (e.g., 10–8 shots and 7–3 corners against Betis, 10–10 shots and 7–4 corners at Levante) show they remain territorially dominant but temporarily blunt in front of goal. Espanyol come in on a three‑match winless run as well, with two defeats and a draw. They have at least found the net in each of those fixtures (2–2 vs Celta, 1–4 vs Villarreal, 1–2 vs Alavés), but defensively they are leaking chances and goals. Over their last five games they average 1.4 goals scored but 1.8 conceded, with 1.15 xG for and 1.504 xG against per match, and no clean sheets. That defensive vulnerability against an Atlético side that usually creates decent xG makes the home team’s edge clear, especially at the Wanda.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
Espanol
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction comes with a 51.0% probability, so it is only a slight lean rather than a lock. All three of Espanyol’s last matches went over 2.5 goals (4, 5 and 3 total goals respectively), while all of Atlético’s last three were under 2.5 (totals of 3, 1 and 0). However, Atlético’s averages of 1.6 scored and 0.4 conceded, plus 1.662 xG for, suggest they normally generate enough threat; Espanyol’s 1.8 goals conceded and 1.504 xG against point toward another open game if Atlético rediscover their finishing.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches
Espanol
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 10.07, indicating a game with a healthy number of attacking situations. Atlético’s last three matches produced 12, 10 and 11 total corners, reflecting their habit of piling on pressure and forcing blocks and clearances. Espanyol’s games have been slightly lower in volume (4, 13 and 6 corners), but still show spells of pressure at both ends. Given Atlético’s front‑foot home style, this corners prediction fits a scenario where the hosts camp in the opposition half for long stretches.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches
Espanol
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.27, lining up well with recent data. Atlético’s last three outings saw combined shot counts of 22, 18 and 20, while Espanyol’s had 23, 19 and 21, all hovering around that mid‑20s range. With Atlético posting stronger xG figures (1.662 for vs Espanyol’s 1.15) and tighter defending, the shots prediction suggests the hosts should generate the higher‑quality chances even if Espanyol manage a reasonable number of attempts themselves.

Final Prediction

Atlético Madrid’s superior league position, stronger defensive metrics and higher xG numbers give them a clear edge, which is reflected in the 91.0% win probability. Espanyol’s porous back line and lack of clean sheets in the last five games look poorly matched to an Atlético side due a reaction after three scoreless outings. A key factor to watch will be whether Atlético can convert their expected dominance in shots and corners into early goals, which would likely tilt both the result and the over 2.5 market firmly in their favour.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel