La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Madrid vs Getafe Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Ath Madrid

Home Team
98%
VS

Getafe

Away Team
1%
Draw: 1%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 24.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 27 22 1 4 72 26 46 67
2 Real Madrid 27 20 3 4 56 23 33 63
3 Ath Madrid 27 16 6 5 46 25 21 54
4 Villarreal 27 17 3 7 50 32 18 54
5 Betis 27 11 10 6 42 34 8 43
6 Celta 27 10 10 7 37 30 7 40
7 Espanol 27 10 7 10 34 40 -6 37
8 Sociedad 27 9 8 10 40 41 -1 35
9 Getafe 27 10 5 12 23 29 -6 35
10 Betis 27 10 5 12 30 37 -7 35
11 Osasuna 27 9 7 11 32 32 0 34
12 Valencia 27 8 8 11 30 41 -11 32
13 Vallecano 27 7 10 10 27 33 -6 31
14 Sevilla 27 8 7 12 35 42 -7 31
15 Girona 27 7 10 10 28 43 -15 31
16 Alaves 27 7 6 14 25 37 -12 27
17 Elche 27 5 11 11 35 41 -6 26
18 Mallorca 27 6 7 14 31 44 -13 25
19 Levante 27 5 7 15 29 45 -16 22
20 Oviedo 27 3 9 15 17 44 -27 18

Recent Trends

Ath Madrid W W W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 1)

Getafe W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Madrid

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.75
# Clean Sheets: 1

Getafe

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.03
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Atlético Madrid are overwhelming favourites at home, with a 98.0% probability of victory against a Getafe side given just 1.0% and the draw likewise at 1.0%. Sitting 3rd in La Liga on 54 points, Atleti are pushing to cement a Champions League place, while 9th-placed Getafe (35 points) are safely mid-table. The model leans towards goals as well, with an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0% and a home win as the most likely outcome.

Match Analysis

Atlético come into this one in full flow: three wins from three, and nine goals scored in that run. Home victories over Sociedad (3-2) and Espanyol (4-2) underline how dangerous they are in the Metropolitano, while the 1-0 away win at Oviedo shows they can also grind out results. Across the last five matches, they’re averaging 2.2 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded, backed by strong numbers: 2.14 expected goals created and only 0.754 expected goals allowed per game. That combination of attacking productivity and defensive control is typical of a side chasing the top two. Getafe, in contrast, arrive with mixed form but a couple of big scalps. They’ve beaten Betis 2-0 at home and Real Madrid 1-0 away, either side of a narrow 1-0 loss to Sevilla. The pattern is clear: tight, low-scoring matches decided by small margins. Over the last five, they’re scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per game, but the underlying figures are less flattering – just 1.058 expected goals for and a hefty 2.034 expected goals against. Three clean sheets in that spell highlight discipline and organisation, yet the xG gap suggests they’ve been living dangerously and relying on defensive resilience.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
Getafe
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0%, and Atlético’s recent scorelines support that. Two of their last three matches (3-2 vs Sociedad, 4-2 vs Espanyol) have gone over 2.5, with only the 1-0 at Oviedo finishing under. Getafe are the opposite: all three of their recent games (2-0, 1-0, 0-1) have ended under 2.5, but their average of 1.2 goals conceded and notably high 2.034 xG against indicate that a stronger attacking side like Atleti can force a more open contest. With Atleti’s 2.2 goals per game and 2.14 xG going forward, the balance nudges towards another high-scoring home outing.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches
Getafe
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.88 total corners, consistent with the way both sides have been playing. Atlético’s last three games have produced 9, 11 and 8 total corners respectively, reflecting a team that attacks in waves at home and forces opponents deep. Getafe’s matches have seen 11, 12 and 4 corners, with them often conceding more as they sit compact and allow crosses. In a match where Atleti are expected to dominate territory, the predicted corners figure around 10 suits a scenario of repeated home pressure and set-piece situations.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches
Getafe
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 24.14, which aligns well with recent patterns. Atlético have racked up 24 and 18 shots in their two home games against Sociedad and Espanyol, even in a tighter away win at Oviedo they managed 12 attempts. Getafe, meanwhile, have been outshot in all three recent fixtures (9 vs Betis’ 14, 9 vs Madrid’s 18, 6 vs Sevilla’s 6), underlining their reactive approach. Given Atleti’s strong attacking xG numbers and Getafe’s tendency to concede chances, a shots prediction in the mid‑20s feels realistic, with the hosts likely responsible for the majority.

Final Prediction

Atlético Madrid’s edge comes from a blend of form, firepower and underlying control: they create more, concede less and have been ruthless at home. Getafe’s recent heroics against big names show they won’t roll over, but their xG profile suggests they are likely to bend under sustained pressure here. The key factor to watch will be how long Getafe’s defensive structure can resist Atleti’s early onslaught; if the home side score first, the game could quickly tilt towards the predicted home win and over 2.5 goals.

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