La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Madrid vs Girona Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Ath Madrid

Home Team
70%
VS

Girona

Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 24.9
Expected Spread: +0.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 36 30 1 5 91 32 59 91
2 Real Madrid 36 25 5 6 72 33 39 80
3 Villarreal 36 21 6 9 67 43 24 69
4 Ath Madrid 36 20 6 10 60 39 21 66
5 Betis 36 14 15 7 56 44 12 57
6 Celta 36 13 11 12 51 47 4 50
7 Getafe 36 14 6 16 31 37 -6 48
8 Sociedad 36 11 12 13 55 56 -1 45
9 Betis 36 13 5 18 40 53 -13 44
10 Vallecano 36 10 14 12 37 43 -6 44
11 Valencia 36 11 10 15 39 51 -12 43
12 Sevilla 36 12 7 17 46 58 -12 43
13 Osasuna 36 11 9 16 43 47 -4 42
14 Espanol 36 11 9 16 40 53 -13 42
15 Girona 36 9 13 14 38 53 -15 40
16 Alaves 36 10 10 16 42 54 -12 40
17 Elche 36 9 12 15 47 56 -9 39
18 Mallorca 36 10 9 17 44 55 -11 39
19 Levante 36 10 9 17 44 59 -15 39
20 Oviedo 36 6 11 19 26 56 -30 29

Recent Trends

Ath Madrid W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 3)

Girona D D L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Madrid

xG (avg) 2.38
xGA (avg) 1.17
Clean Sheets 1

Girona

xG (avg) 1.03
xGA (avg) 1.83
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Atlético Madrid are clear favourites at home, with a 70.0% chance of victory against a Girona side given just a 14.0% win probability and a 16.0% chance of a draw. The model points to a home win and leans towards an over 2.5 prediction, with 58.0% likelihood of at least three goals. In the table, Atlético sit 4th on 66 points, pushing for a Champions League place, while Girona are 15th on 40 points, still looking over their shoulder at the relegation scrap.

Match Analysis

Atlético come into this one with two wins from their last three: away victories at Osasuna (2-1) and Valencia (2-0) sandwiching a frustrating 0-1 home defeat to Celta despite dominating. Those three games show a side creating plenty – 20 shots against Celta, 20 at Valencia – but not always taking their chances. Their recent five-game averages back that up: 1.6 goals scored but a much higher 2.382 expected goals per match, suggesting they’ve been wasteful rather than blunt, and they’ve managed just one clean sheet in that span. Girona, by contrast, are stumbling. They’ve taken only two points from their last three matches: 1-1 draws with Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano and a 0-1 home defeat to Mallorca. The pattern is a team that can build attacks but lack punch in both boxes – only 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average across their last five, with xG at 1.028 for and a worrying 1.832 against. Even when they’ve dominated the ball and chances, like the 29 shots against Sociedad, they’ve not turned that into wins.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 58.0%, and the recent numbers just about support it. Only 1 of Atlético’s last 3 games has gone over 2.5 goals (2-1 at Osasuna), with the other two finishing 2-0 and 0-1, but their strong attacking xG of 2.382 and relatively high 1.168 xG conceded hint at games that could open up. Girona have seen all of their last three end under 2.5 (1-1, 1-1, 0-1), yet their 1.028 xG for and 1.832 xG against suggest they’re living dangerously and could easily be involved in a higher‑scoring contest here.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches
Girona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.8 corners in total, broadly in line with what both teams have been producing. Atlético’s last three have featured 12, 10 and 8 corners respectively, driven by their territorial pressure and volume of shots, especially at home. Girona’s matches have seen 9, 14 and 7 corners, reflecting a side that concedes territory and crosses when under pressure; against an assertive Atlético side, that should keep the predicted corners total close to the expected mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches
Girona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.95 looks realistic given both teams’ recent trends. Atlético alone have fired 20 shots in each of their last two outings and allowed 23 at Osasuna, showing how open their games can become once the tempo rises. Girona, meanwhile, have been in matches with 35 total shots against Sociedad, 27 versus Vallecano and 22 against Mallorca, so the shots prediction ties in neatly with their xG profile as a side that both creates and concedes plenty in and around the box.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Ath Madrid wins by X goals. Negative = Girona wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Ath Madrid vs Girona with expected spread of +0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Ath Madrid vs Girona
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Atlético -0.91, meaning the home side are expected to win by close to a one-goal margin on average. Recent results reflect that edge: Atlético’s last three show a +2 goal difference (4 scored, 2 conceded), while Girona sit at -1 (2 scored, 3 conceded) over the same stretch. That expected spread aligns with the 70.0% win probability for the hosts and the underlying numbers that show Atlético stronger in attack and more solid, if occasionally vulnerable, at the back.

Final Prediction

Atlético’s superior league position, stronger recent xG figures and home advantage explain why they are favoured so heavily. Girona’s defensive fragility in the data – especially their 1.832 xG conceded – could be exposed by an Atlético side that regularly piles up chances. A key factor to watch will be whether Atlético convert their expected dominance into early goals, which could turn this from a tight tactical battle into a more open, high‑scoring encounter.

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