La Liga 2025-2026: Ath Madrid vs Sociedad Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Ath Madrid

Home Team
84%
VS

Sociedad

Away Team
7%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 24.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 26 21 1 4 71 26 45 64
2 Real Madrid 26 19 3 4 54 22 32 60
3 Ath Madrid 26 15 6 5 43 23 20 51
4 Villarreal 26 16 3 7 48 31 17 51
5 Betis 26 11 10 5 42 32 10 43
6 Celta 26 10 10 6 36 28 8 40
7 Espanol 26 10 6 10 33 39 -6 36
8 Sociedad 26 9 8 9 38 38 0 35
9 Betis 26 10 5 11 30 36 -6 35
10 Osasuna 26 9 6 11 30 30 0 33
11 Getafe 26 9 5 12 21 29 -8 32
12 Vallecano 26 7 9 10 26 32 -6 30
13 Sevilla 26 8 6 12 34 41 -7 30
14 Girona 26 7 9 10 27 42 -15 30
15 Valencia 26 7 8 11 27 39 -12 29
16 Alaves 26 7 6 13 23 34 -11 27
17 Elche 26 5 11 10 34 39 -5 26
18 Mallorca 26 6 6 14 29 42 -13 24
19 Levante 26 5 6 15 28 44 -16 21
20 Oviedo 26 3 8 15 16 43 -27 17

Recent Trends

Ath Madrid W W L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 0)

Sociedad W D L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Madrid

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.84
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.94
# Clean Sheets: 2

Sociedad

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.41
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.23
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Atlético Madrid are clear favourites at home, with an 84.0% probability of taking all three points against Real Sociedad, who are given just a 7.0% chance, with the draw at 9.0%. The model leans towards a home win in a game tipped to go over 2.5 goals (50.0% probability) between third‑placed Atlético (51 points) and eighth‑placed Sociedad (35 points). Both sides are chasing European spots, but Atlético are far better placed in the current La Liga standings.

Match Analysis

Atlético come into this with two wins from their last three league matches, including a gritty 1-0 away victory at bottom side Oviedo and a convincing 4-2 home win over Espanyol. The only blemish was a 3-0 defeat away to Vallecano, a reminder that Simeone’s side can still be caught out on their travels. At home, though, they look far more assertive, as that Espanyol performance suggested: 18 shots to 8, and a willingness to commit numbers forward. The advanced numbers underline Atlético’s current strength. Over their last five games they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed up by strong underlying figures of 1.838 expected goals (xG) for and just 0.944 xG against per match, plus two clean sheets in that run. Sociedad arrive in more mixed form: a 1-0 away win at Mallorca, a 3-3 home draw with Oviedo and a 4-1 defeat at Real Madrid. They are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across the last five, with xG figures of 1.414 for and 1.232 against, pointing to a team that can create but is giving opponents more chances than it would like.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction edges it here, with a 50.0% probability that the match will see at least three goals. Two of Atlético’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (4-2 vs Espanyol, 0-3 at Vallecano), with only the 1-0 at Oviedo staying under. For Sociedad, two of their last three have also gone over 2.5 (3-3 vs Oviedo, 1-4 at Real Madrid), with just the 1-0 win at Mallorca under the line. Given Atlético’s average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, plus Sociedad’s 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded and their respective xG profiles, an open game with chances at both ends is a reasonable expectation.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to an energetic contest, with an expected total of 10.46 corners. Atlético’s last three matches have produced 11, 8 and 12 corners respectively, while Sociedad’s have seen 10, 13 and 10. Both sides are used to trading territory and pressure in the wide areas, which naturally boosts the predicted corners count and suggests another game where full-backs and wingers see plenty of the ball in advanced zones.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at an expected total of 24.81 attempts, in line with how both teams have been playing. Atlético’s last three outings have seen them take 12, 18 and 9 shots, while facing 16, 8 and 13, regularly pushing total shots into the low-to-mid 20s. Sociedad have been similarly involved in shot-heavy matches, with 12, 15 and 13 attempts of their own and opponents recording 6, 14 and 11. Those volumes marry well with their xG figures, pointing towards around 25 expected shots in this one.

Final Prediction

Atlético’s superior league position, stronger defensive record and more convincing recent underlying numbers give them a clear edge at home. Sociedad can threaten, but their tendency to concede chances against stronger sides may be costly. The key factor to watch will be how well Sociedad cope with Atlético’s intensity without the ball; if Atlético control territory early, their firepower and set-piece threat should tilt the night decisively in their favour.

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