La Liga 2025-2026: Barcelona vs Celta Prediction - 22 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Barcelona

Home Team
85%
VS

Celta

Away Team
6%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 31 26 1 4 84 30 54 79
2 Real Madrid 31 22 4 5 65 29 36 70
3 Villarreal 31 19 4 8 56 36 20 61
4 Ath Madrid 31 17 6 8 51 32 19 57
5 Betis 31 11 13 7 45 38 7 46
6 Celta 31 11 11 9 44 40 4 44
7 Sociedad 31 11 9 11 49 48 1 42
8 Getafe 31 12 5 14 27 32 -5 41
9 Osasuna 31 10 9 12 37 38 -1 39
10 Espanol 31 10 8 13 37 48 -11 38
11 Betis 31 11 5 15 33 45 -12 38
12 Girona 31 9 11 11 33 45 -12 38
13 Vallecano 31 8 11 12 29 38 -9 35
14 Valencia 31 9 8 14 34 46 -12 35
15 Mallorca 31 9 7 15 39 48 -9 34
16 Sevilla 31 9 7 15 39 51 -12 34
17 Alaves 31 8 9 14 35 46 -11 33
18 Elche 31 7 11 13 39 47 -8 32
19 Levante 31 7 8 16 35 50 -15 29
20 Oviedo 31 6 9 16 24 48 -24 27

Recent Trends

Barcelona W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 0)

Celta L W L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Barcelona

xG (avg) 3.38
xGA (avg) 1.27
Clean Sheets 2

Celta

xG (avg) 1.18
xGA (avg) 1.17
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Barcelona are clear favourites here, with an 85.0% probability of a home win against a Celta side given just a 6.0% chance, and the draw at 9.0%. Top of La Liga with 79 points from 31 games, Barcelona face sixth-placed Celta, who are on 44 points and chasing European football. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 63.0% and both teams scoring (“goal”) at 59.0%.

Match Analysis

Barcelona come into this one in ruthless domestic form, with three straight league wins: 4-1 at home to Espanyol, a hard-fought 2-1 away at Atlético Madrid, and a tight 1-0 success over Rayo Vallecano. Across those games they dominated territory and threat, racking up 20, 22 and 15 shots respectively, plus a huge 9-1 corner count at the Metropolitano. Their recent five-game averages underline the control: 3.4 goals scored, just 0.8 conceded, and 3.376 expected goals per match created. Celta’s recent form is far more volatile. They edged Valencia 3-2 away, but that result was sandwiched between two home defeats: 0-3 to Oviedo and a wild 3-4 loss to Alavés. Those three matches show both their attacking spark and defensive vulnerability, with total-goal counts of 3, 5 and 7. Over their last five, they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG figures (1.176 for, 1.166 against) suggesting they tend to play relatively open, evenly balanced games but without the same cutting edge as Barcelona.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Barcelona
Goals in last 5 matches
Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 63.0% fits both the standings and the recent scoring patterns. Two of Barcelona’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (4-1 vs Espanyol, 2-1 at Atlético), with only the 1-0 against Vallecano staying under 2.5. Celta have been even more chaotic: all three of their latest outings finished over 2.5 (0-3, 3-2, 3-4). With Barcelona averaging 3.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Celta at 1.6 for and 1.2 against across the last five games, plus both sides posting more than 1.1 xG per match, the numbers strongly back a high-scoring contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Barcelona
Corners in last 5 matches
Celta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a reasonably busy game, with 9.64 expected total corners. Barcelona’s last three matches produced corner totals of 12 (7-5 vs Espanyol), 10 (9-1 at Atlético) and 15 (6-9 vs Rayo), reflecting a front-foot style that relentlessly forces blocks and saves. Celta’s games were lower volume — 5, 6 and 5 corners respectively — but still show a team that concedes territory when under pressure. With Barça likely to dominate the ball at home, the predicted corners figure around 10 feels in line with their aggressive use of width and volume of attacking phases.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Barcelona
Shots in last 5 matches
Celta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.42, and that matches what both sides have been producing. Barcelona’s last three games saw them take 20, 22 and 15 shots, while limiting opponents to 10, 6 and 8 — a picture of sustained pressure. Celta’s recent outings ended with 9, 9 and 12 efforts of their own, but they also allowed 8, 13 and 14 attempts, again pointing towards open contests. With Barça’s xG at 3.376 and Celta’s at 1.176 over the last five, a shots prediction in the mid-20s suits an attacking home side against visitors who are willing to trade chances.

Final Prediction

Barcelona’s edge comes from their blend of relentless attacking output, defensive solidity and commanding position at the top of the table, all backed by strong recent xG and shot numbers. Celta can threaten, but their leaky back line and inconsistency make an upset unlikely. The key factor to watch will be how early Barcelona turn dominance into goals; if they score first, this could quickly tilt into the kind of high-scoring home win the probabilities suggest.

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