La Liga 2025-2026: Barcelona vs Levante Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Barcelona

Home Team
99%
VS

Levante

Away Team
0%
Draw: 1%
Over 2.5: 75%
Under 2.5: 25%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 30.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Real Madrid 24 19 3 2 53 19 34 60
2 Barcelona 24 19 1 4 64 25 39 58
3 Villarreal 24 15 3 6 45 26 19 48
4 Ath Madrid 24 13 6 5 38 21 17 45
5 Betis 24 11 8 5 39 29 10 41
6 Espanol 24 10 5 9 29 33 -4 35
7 Celta 24 8 10 6 32 27 5 34
8 Sociedad 24 8 7 9 34 35 -1 31
9 Betis 24 9 4 11 27 34 -7 31
10 Osasuna 24 8 6 10 28 28 0 30
11 Getafe 24 8 5 11 20 28 -8 29
12 Girona 24 7 8 9 24 38 -14 29
13 Sevilla 24 7 5 12 31 39 -8 26
14 Alaves 24 7 5 12 21 30 -9 26
15 Valencia 24 6 8 10 25 37 -12 26
16 Elche 24 5 10 9 31 35 -4 25
17 Vallecano 23 6 7 10 21 30 -9 25
18 Mallorca 24 6 6 12 29 39 -10 24
19 Levante 24 4 6 14 26 41 -15 18
20 Oviedo 23 3 7 13 13 36 -23 16

Recent Trends

Barcelona L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 2)

Levante L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Barcelona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.64
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.03
# Clean Sheets: 2

Levante

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.85
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.08
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Barcelona are overwhelming favourites at home, with a 99.0% probability of victory against a Levante side stuck in 19th place and fighting relegation, while Barça chase leaders Real Madrid from 2nd in the table. The model leans heavily towards a home win and an open game, with a 75.0% chance of over 2.5 goals. A draw is given just 1.0% and an away win effectively 0.0%, underlining the gulf between the teams.

Match Analysis

Barcelona come into this fixture with strong recent league form: two convincing wins over Mallorca (3-0) and Elche (3-1) were followed by a tight 2-1 defeat away to Girona, despite dominating both corners and shots in that loss. Across their last five games they average 2.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, backed up by 2.638 expected goals (xG) created and just 1.034 xG allowed. That balance between heavy attacking output and relatively solid defensive numbers explains why they are pushing Real Madrid so hard at the top. Levante, by contrast, are on a three-game losing streak and look fragile at both ends. They lost 1-0 to Villarreal, 2-0 to Valencia and 4-2 away to Athletic Bilbao, conceding a total of seven goals in those matches. Their recent averages – 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded per game, with only 0.854 xG created and 2.078 xG allowed – paint the picture of a side that struggles to create clear chances while giving up plenty at the back. Coming up against one of the league’s most potent attacks away from home is a daunting prospect.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Barcelona
Goals in last 5 matches
Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is strongly favoured here, with a 75.0% probability of the game producing at least three goals. Two of Barcelona’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-0 vs Mallorca, 3-1 vs Elche), with only the 2-1 loss at Girona also landing above the line – meaning all three recent Barça fixtures actually finished above 2.5 total goals. Levante have been more mixed, with one match under 2.5 (0-1 vs Villarreal) and two over (0-2 vs Valencia, 2-4 vs Athletic Bilbao), but their 1.8 goals conceded on average plus Barça’s 2.8 scored, supported by both sides’ xG numbers, clearly favour goals rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Barcelona
Corners in last 5 matches
Levante
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction points to around 10.49 total corners, which fits with recent trends for both teams. Barcelona’s last three games produced 10, 15 and 10 corners respectively, driven by their aggressive attacking play: 7-3 at Girona, 12-3 against Mallorca, and 8-2 at Elche. Levante’s matches have been quieter in this regard (5, 5 and 7 total corners), but facing a dominant, front-foot Barcelona side should push the predicted corners tally towards that 10–11 mark, as Barça pin them back and rack up set-piece opportunities.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Barcelona
Shots in last 5 matches
Levante
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 30.03, and that looks realistic given the recent shot volumes. Barcelona have fired 27, 24 and 30 shots in their last three games, regularly overwhelming opponents, while generally conceding between 9 and 13 efforts. Levante have been less prolific with 16, 9 and 6 shots, but they also allow plenty, particularly the 22 they faced at Athletic Bilbao. This shots prediction aligns with Barça’s strong xG of 2.638 per game and Levante’s high xG conceded of 2.078, suggesting a one-sided shot count but enough overall volume to reach that 30-shot region.

Final Prediction

Barcelona’s superior league position, recent form and attacking metrics give them a clear edge over a Levante team battling at the wrong end of the table. With a 99.0% home-win probability and strong support for over 2.5 goals, everything points to a dominant Barça display. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Barcelona can turn their expected territorial and shots advantage into goals, and whether Levante can withstand the early pressure long enough to stay competitive.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel