La Liga 2025-2026: Betis vs Levante Prediction - 23 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Betis

Home Team
61%
VS

Levante

Away Team
19%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.8
Expected Spread: +0.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 37 31 1 5 94 33 61 94
2 Real Madrid 37 26 5 6 73 33 40 83
3 Villarreal 37 21 6 10 67 45 22 69
4 Ath Madrid 37 21 6 10 61 39 22 69
5 Betis 37 14 15 8 57 47 10 57
6 Celta 37 13 12 12 52 48 4 51
7 Getafe 37 14 6 17 31 38 -7 48
8 Vallecano 37 11 14 12 39 43 -4 47
9 Valencia 37 12 10 15 43 54 -11 46
10 Sociedad 37 11 12 14 58 60 -2 45
11 Espanol 37 12 9 16 42 54 -12 45
12 Betis 37 13 6 18 41 54 -13 45
13 Sevilla 37 12 7 18 46 59 -13 43
14 Alaves 37 11 10 16 43 54 -11 43
15 Levante 37 11 9 17 46 59 -13 42
16 Osasuna 37 11 9 17 44 49 -5 42
17 Elche 37 10 12 15 48 56 -8 42
18 Girona 37 9 13 15 38 54 -16 40
19 Mallorca 37 10 9 18 44 57 -13 39
20 Oviedo 37 6 11 20 26 57 -31 29

Recent Trends

Betis L W D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)

Levante W W W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Betis

xG (avg) 1.75
xGA (avg) 0.68
Clean Sheets 1

Levante

xG (avg) 1.10
xGA (avg) 1.98
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Betis are clear favourites at home with a 61.0% chance of victory, compared to just 19.0% for Levante and a 20.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction for goals (51.0%), suggesting a reasonably open contest. In the table, Betis sit high in 5th on 57 points, chasing Champions League football, while Levante are down in 15th with 42 points and still looking nervously over their shoulder at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Betis arrive in decent form over their last three outings: a 2-1 home win over Elche, a 2-2 draw away at Sociedad and a 3-1 defeat at Barcelona. Even in the loss at Camp Nou they created seven shots, and across the three games they’ve found the net five times, showing enough attacking punch to back up their league position. Their recent advanced numbers are strong: 1.4 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded on average in the last five, with 1.75 expected goals (xG) for and only 0.676 xG against. That blend of solid defending and steady chance creation underpins why they’re favoured. Levante come in on the back of a remarkable upturn: three straight wins — 2-0 vs Mallorca, 3-2 at Celta and 3-2 at home to Osasuna — have dragged them away from immediate danger. They’ve scored eight in those three matches, but the underlying trend over the last five is more modest: 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded per game, with 1.1 xG for and 1.978 xG against. That suggests they’ve recently been punching above their underlying numbers, and their defensive vulnerability remains a concern against a top-five side like Betis.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Betis
Goals in last 5 matches
Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is slightly favoured at 51.0%, and the recent scorelines support that. Two of Betis’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-1 vs Barcelona, 2-2 vs Sociedad), with only the 2-1 win over Elche narrowly under that line. Levante have been involved in increasingly open games: their last two, 3-2 at Celta and 3-2 vs Osasuna, both went over 2.5, with only the 2-0 win against Mallorca under. Combining Betis’s averages of 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded with Levante’s 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded, plus xG figures slightly above 1.0 for both, tilts this towards another match that can go over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Betis
Corners in last 5 matches
Levante
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.51 total corners, which fits with the recent data. Betis’s last three have produced 10 corners at Barcelona (4-6), nine at home to Elche (8-1) and seven at Sociedad (3-4) — a consistent, mid-range output driven by steady attacking play rather than all-out wing bombardment. Levante’s games have swung more wildly: 10 vs Mallorca (4-6), eight at Celta (4-4), then a huge 16 against Osasuna (15-1), showing how their more aggressive, front-foot performances can inflate the corner count. Taken together, the predicted corners tally around the 9–10 mark feels realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Betis
Shots in last 5 matches
Levante
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure sits at 25.77 total, which matches what both sides have been producing. Betis have seen 22 shots at Barcelona (7-15), 24 vs Elche (16-8) and 28 vs Sociedad (14-14), regularly landing in the low-to-mid 20s. Levante’s recent numbers are notable: 23 shots vs Mallorca (15-8), 25 at Celta (14-11) and a huge 40 vs Osasuna (35-5). That aggressive output combined with Betis’s stable attacking presence underpins a shots prediction in the mid-20s, aligning with their xG profiles that show both teams consistently creating chances.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Betis wins by X goals. Negative = Levante wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Betis vs Levante with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Betis vs Levante
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Betis favoured by +0.82 goals, essentially expecting them to win by around one. Over the last three matches, Betis have a neutral overall goal difference (five scored, six conceded), but that includes a tough away trip to Barcelona and competitive displays elsewhere. Levante, by contrast, have a +4 goal difference in their last three (8-4), but this sits against their longer-term trend of conceding 2.0 goals per game with xG against close to 2.0. The expected spread aligns with the 61.0% home-win probability: Betis’ superior defensive metrics and league position suggest they’re more likely to edge the key moments.

Final Prediction

Betis’ edge comes from a sturdier defence, stronger xG profile and the pressure of chasing a Champions League place from 5th, all backed by the home advantage. Levante’s recent surge makes them dangerous, but their underlying vulnerability at the back could be exposed by a Betis side that steadily creates chances. The key factor to watch will be how Levante’s adventurous approach matches up against Betis’s compact defending and more efficient finishing.

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