La Liga 2025-2026: Betis vs Real Madrid Prediction - 24 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Betis

Home Team
24%
VS

Real Madrid

Away Team
55%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.9
Expected Spread: -0.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 32 27 1 4 85 30 55 82
2 Real Madrid 32 23 4 5 67 30 37 73
3 Villarreal 32 19 5 8 57 37 20 62
4 Ath Madrid 32 17 6 9 53 35 18 57
5 Betis 32 12 13 7 48 40 8 49
6 Getafe 32 13 5 14 28 32 -4 44
7 Celta 32 11 11 10 44 41 3 44
8 Sociedad 32 11 9 12 49 49 0 42
9 Betis 32 12 5 15 34 45 -11 41
10 Osasuna 32 10 9 13 37 39 -2 39
11 Vallecano 32 9 11 12 30 38 -8 38
12 Espanol 32 10 8 14 37 49 -12 38
13 Girona 32 9 11 12 35 48 -13 38
14 Valencia 32 9 9 14 35 47 -12 36
15 Mallorca 32 9 8 15 40 49 -9 35
16 Elche 32 8 11 13 42 49 -7 35
17 Sevilla 32 9 7 16 39 53 -14 34
18 Alaves 32 8 9 15 36 48 -12 33
19 Levante 32 8 8 16 37 50 -13 32
20 Oviedo 32 6 10 16 25 49 -24 28

Recent Trends

Betis W D D L D

  • Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 1)

Real Madrid W D L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 4 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Betis

xG (avg) 1.93
xGA (avg) 0.93
Clean Sheets 1

Real Madrid

xG (avg) 1.37
xGA (avg) 1.16
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Real Madrid are favoured to take all three points away at Betis, with a 55.0% chance of an away win against just 24.0% for the hosts and 21.0% for the draw. The model leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% probability. In the table, Madrid sit 2nd on 73 points, chasing Barcelona, while Betis are 5th on 49 points and fighting to cement a Champions League place.

Match Analysis

Betis come into this with a quietly solid run: a 3-2 win at Girona, followed by a 1-1 draw at Osasuna and a 0-0 home stalemate with Espanyol. That sequence (W-D-D) shows resilience and a capacity to adjust styles – from the open shoot-out in Girona to the controlled but wasteful home display versus Espanyol, where they produced 19 shots but couldn’t score. Their recent underlying numbers are impressive: 1.934 expected goals (xG) created and just 0.928 xG conceded on average over the last five games, suggesting a side that is generating chances and limiting opponents even more than the raw 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded would indicate. Real Madrid’s last three matches have been more turbulent: a 2-1 home win over Alavés, a dominant but only 1-1 draw with Girona, and a 2-1 defeat away to Mallorca. They’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last five, with xG figures of 1.368 for and 1.156 against – still positive, but less commanding than Betis’ recent underlying form. One striking detail: Madrid have not kept a clean sheet in their last five matches, underlining a defensive vulnerability that Betis’ attack will look to exploit.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Betis
Goals in last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 59.0%, and the recent scorelines support that lean. Two of Betis’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Girona, 1-1 vs Osasuna, 0-0 vs Espanyol), while two of Real Madrid’s last three also finished with at least three goals (2-1 vs Alavés, 1-1 vs Girona, 1-2 vs Mallorca). With Betis averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded and Madrid at 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded, plus both sides’ xG figures pointing to regular chance creation, an open contest looks likelier than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Betis
Corners in last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match stands at 9.48, putting the corners prediction in the medium range. Betis’s last three outings produced corner counts of 1-3, 3-6, and 4-3, reflecting a side that can be out-cornered when pinned back away but more balanced at home. Real Madrid, meanwhile, generated big corner numbers at home (9-6 vs Alavés, 10-1 vs Girona) and still earned four at Mallorca, consistent with an aggressive attacking approach that tends to drive up the predicted corners total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Betis
Shots in last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 25.87, which fits both sides’ recent shot volumes. Betis’s last three matches saw them take 7, 8, and then a huge 19 shots, while allowing 9, 12, and 8 – a sign that at home they’re prepared to pile on attempts. Madrid have been shot-happy as well: 24 and 22 shots in their last two home games, plus 15 away at Mallorca, with opponents also getting efforts away. That aligns with Madrid’s 1.368 xG and Betis’s 1.934 xG averages, underlining why the shots prediction is relatively high.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Betis wins by X goals. Negative = Real Madrid wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Betis vs Real Madrid with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Betis vs Real Madrid
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.28 in favour of Real Madrid, meaning the expected spread slightly favours the away side by just under a third of a goal. Across their last three, Betis are +1 on goal difference (3-2, 1-1, 0-0), while Madrid sit at 0 (2-1, 1-1, 1-2), which reflects a fairly balanced picture rather than overwhelming dominance. The negative expected spread ties in with Madrid’s higher win probability and deeper attacking talent, but the margin is slim enough to suggest a competitive match rather than a rout.

Final Prediction

Real Madrid carry the edge thanks to their superior league position, higher win probability and consistent ability to create chances, even in tricky games. Betis, however, have stronger recent xG numbers and home advantage, which should keep this finely poised. The key factor to watch will be whether Madrid’s leaky defence can withstand a Betis attack that has been generating more chances than the raw scorelines suggest.

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